Improving Few-Shot Visual Classification with Unlabelled Examples

We propose a transductive meta-learning method that uses unlabelled instances to improve few-shot image classification performance. Our approach combines a regularized Mahalanobis-distance-based soft k-means clustering procedure with a state of the art neural adaptive feature extractor to achieve improved test-time classification accuracy using unlabelled data. We evaluate our method on transductive few-shot learning tasks, in which the goal is to jointly predict labels for query (test) examples given a set of support (training) examples. We achieve new state of the art in-domain performance on Meta-Dataset, and improve accuracy on mini- and tiered-ImageNet as compared to other conditional neural adaptive methods that use the same pre-trained feature extractor.

Planning as Inference in Epidemiological Models

In this work we demonstrate how existing software tools can be used to automate parts of infectious disease-control policy-making via performing inference in existing epidemiological dynamics models. The kind of inference tasks undertaken include computing, for planning purposes, the posterior distribution over putatively controllable, via direct policy-making choices, simulation model parameters that give rise to acceptable disease progression outcomes. Neither the full capabilities of such inference automation software tools nor their utility for planning is widely disseminated at the current time. Timely gains in understanding about these tools and how they can be used may lead to more fine-grained and less economically damaging policy prescriptions, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Coping With Simulators That Don't Always Return

Deterministic models are approximations of reality that are easy to interpret and often easier to build than stochastic alternatives. Unfortunately, as nature is capricious, observational data can never be fully explained by deterministic models in practice. Observation and process noise need to be added to adapt deterministic models to behave stochastically, such that they are capable of explaining and extrapolating from noisy data. We investigate and address computational inefficiencies that arise from adding process noise to deterministic simulators that fail to return for certain inputs; a property we describe as "brittle." We show how to train a conditional normalizing flow to propose perturbations such that the simulator succeeds with high probability, increasing computational efficiency.

Improved Few-Shot Visual Classification

Few-shot learning is a fundamental task in computer vision that carries the promise of alleviating the need for exhaustively labeled data. Most few-shot learning approaches to date have focused on progressively more complex neural feature extractors and classifier adaptation strategies, as well as the refinement of the task definition itself. In this paper, we explore the hypothesis that a simple class-covariance-based distance metric, namely the Mahalanobis distance, adopted into a state of the art few-shot learning approach (CNAPS) can, in and of itself, lead to a significant performance improvement. We also discover that it is possible to learn adaptive feature extractors that allow useful estimation of the high dimensional feature covariances required by this metric from surprisingly few samples. The result of our work is a new "Simple CNAPS" architecture which has up to 9.2% fewer trainable parameters than CNAPS and performs up to 6.1% better than state of the art on the standard few-shot image classification benchmark dataset.

Amortized Rejection Sampling in Universal Probabilistic Programming

Existing approaches to amortized inference in probabilistic programs with unbounded loops can produce estimators with infinite variance. An instance of this is importance sampling inference in programs that explicitly include rejection sampling as part of the user-programmed generative procedure. In this paper we develop a new and efficient amortized importance sampling estimator. We prove finite variance of our estimator and empirically demonstrate our method's correctness and efficiency compared to existing alternatives on generative programs containing rejection sampling loops and discuss how to implement our method in a generic probabilistic programming framework.

Attention for Inference Compilation

We present a new approach to automatic amortized inference in universal probabilistic programs which improves performance compared to current methods. Our approach is a variation of inference compilation (IC) which leverages deep neural networks to approximate a posterior distribution over latent variables in a probabilistic program. A challenge with existing IC network architectures is that they can fail to model long-range dependencies between latent variables. To address this, we introduce an attention mechanism that attends to the most salient variables previously sampled in the execution of a probabilistic program. We demonstrate that the addition of attention allows the proposal distributions to better match the true posterior, enhancing inference about latent variables in simulators.

Deep Probabilistic Surrogate Networks for Universal Simulator Approximation

We present a framework for automatically structuring and training fast, approximate, deep neural surrogates of existing stochastic simulators. Unlike traditional approaches to surrogate modeling, our surrogates retain the interpretable structure of the reference simulators. The particular way we achieve this allows us to replace the reference simulator with the surrogate when undertaking amortized inference in the probabilistic programming sense. The fidelity and speed of our surrogates allow for not only faster "forward" stochastic simulation but also for accurate and substantially faster inference. We support these claims via experiments that involve a commercial composite-materials curing simulator. Employing our surrogate modeling technique makes inference an order of magnitude faster, opening up the possibility of doing simulator-based, non-invasive, just-in-time parts quality testing; in this case inferring safety-critical latent internal temperature profiles of composite materials undergoing curing from surface temperature profile measurements.