A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation

We propose a closed-form spectral framework for relative log-density estimation in linearly parameterized probabilistic models, including unnormalized and conditional models. This is achieved by representing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as an integral of weighted chi-squared divergences, converting KL estimation into a family of least-squares problems. We derive an explicit spectral formula based only on first- and second-order feature moments, yielding closed-form estimators of both divergences and log-density potentials for fixed features. The framework extends to a broad class of f-divergences and can be combined with kernelization or feature learning with neural networks. We prove convergence guarantees for the resulting estimators and empirically compare them on synthetic data with optimization-based variational formulations, including logistic and softmax regression for normalized conditional models.

Super-Level-Set Regression: Conditional Quantiles via Volume Minimization

Constructing minimum-volume prediction regions that satisfy conditional coverage is a fundamental challenge in multivariate regression. Standard approaches rely on explicitly estimating the full conditional density and subsequently thresholding it. This two-step plug-in process is notoriously difficult, sensitive to estimation errors, and computationally expensive. One would like to instead optimize the region directly. Formulating a direct solution is challenging, however, because it requires minimizing a volume objective that is coupled with the conditional quantiles of the model's own estimation error. In this work, we address this challenge. We introduce super-level-set regression (SLS), a novel mathematical framework that successfully resolves this implicit coupling, allowing us to directly parameterize and optimize the geometric boundaries of the target conditional level sets. By bypassing full distribution estimation and leveraging flexible volume-preserving frontier functions, our approach natively captures complex, multimodal, and disjoint conditional structures end-to-end. Ultimately, SLS offers a new perspective on multivariate conditional quantile regression, replacing the restrictive assumptions of density-first methods with a direct geometric optimization strategy.

Explaining and Preventing Alignment Collapse in Iterative RLHF

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) typically assumes a static or non-strategic reward model (RM). In iterative deployment, however, the policy generates the data on which the RM is retrained, creating a feedback loop. Building on the Stackelberg game formulation of this interaction, we derive an analytical decomposition of the policy's true optimization gradient into a standard policy gradient and a parameter-steering term that captures the policy's influence on the RM's future parameters. We show that standard iterative RLHF, which drops this steering term entirely, suffers from alignment collapse: the policy systematically exploits the RM's blind spots, producing low-quality, high-reward outputs whose feedback reinforces the very errors it exploits. To mitigate this, we propose foresighted policy optimization (FPO), a mechanism-design intervention that restores the missing steering term by regularizing the policy's parameter-steering effect on RM updates. We instantiate FPO via a scalable first-order approximation and demonstrate that it prevents alignment collapse on both controlled environments and an LLM alignment pipeline using Llama-3.2-1B.

A Variational Estimator for $L_p$ Calibration Errors

Calibration$\unicode{x2014}$the problem of ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed class frequencies$\unicode{x2014}$is a basic desideratum for reliable prediction with machine learning systems. Calibration error is traditionally assessed via a divergence function, using the expected divergence between predictions and empirical frequencies. Accurately estimating this quantity is challenging, especially in the multiclass setting. Here, we show how to extend a recent variational framework for estimating calibration errors beyond divergences induced induced by proper losses, to cover a broad class of calibration errors induced by $L_p$ divergences. Our method can separate over- and under-confidence and, unlike non-variational approaches, avoids overestimation. We provide extensive experiments and integrate our code in the open-source package probmetrics (https://github.com/dholzmueller/probmetrics) for evaluating calibration errors.

High-Dimensional Analysis of Gradient Flow for Extensive-Width Quadratic Neural Networks

We study the high-dimensional training dynamics of a shallow neural network with quadratic activation in a teacher-student setup. We focus on the extensive-width regime, where the teacher and student network widths scale proportionally with the input dimension, and the sample size grows quadratically. This scaling aims to describe overparameterized neural networks in which feature learning still plays a central role. In the high-dimensional limit, we derive a dynamical characterization of the gradient flow, in the spirit of dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT). Under l2-regularization, we analyze these equations at long times and characterize the performance and spectral properties of the resulting estimator. This result provides a quantitative understanding of the effect of overparameterization on learning and generalization, and reveals a double descent phenomenon in the presence of label noise, where generalization improves beyond interpolation. In the small regularization limit, we obtain an exact expression for the perfect recovery threshold as a function of the network widths, providing a precise characterization of how overparameterization influences recovery.

A Convex Loss Function for Set Prediction with Optimal Trade-offs Between Size and Conditional Coverage

We consider supervised learning problems in which set predictions provide explicit uncertainty estimates. Using Choquet integrals (a.k.a. Lov{á}sz extensions), we propose a convex loss function for nondecreasing subset-valued functions obtained as level sets of a real-valued function. This loss function allows optimal trade-offs between conditional probabilistic coverage and the ''size'' of the set, measured by a non-decreasing submodular function. We also propose several extensions that mimic loss functions and criteria for binary classification with asymmetric losses, and show how to naturally obtain sets with optimized conditional coverage. We derive efficient optimization algorithms, either based on stochastic gradient descent or reweighted least-squares formulations, and illustrate our findings with a series of experiments on synthetic datasets for classification and regression tasks, showing improvements over approaches that aim for marginal coverage.

Conditional Coverage Diagnostics for Conformal Prediction

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if any classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

Structured Matrix Scaling for Multi-Class Calibration

Post-hoc recalibration methods are widely used to ensure that classifiers provide faithful probability estimates. We argue that parametric recalibration functions based on logistic regression can be motivated from a simple theoretical setting for both binary and multiclass classification. This insight motivates the use of more expressive calibration methods beyond standard temperature scaling. For multi-class calibration however, a key challenge lies in the increasing number of parameters introduced by more complex models, often coupled with limited calibration data, which can lead to overfitting. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the resulting bias-variance tradeoff can be effectively managed by structured regularization, robust preprocessing and efficient optimization. The resulting methods lead to substantial gains over existing logistic-based calibration techniques. We provide efficient and easy-to-use open-source implementations of our methods, making them an attractive alternative to common temperature, vector, and matrix scaling implementations.

Adaptive Coverage Policies in Conformal Prediction

Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either producing overly conservative sets when the coverage level is too high, or empty sets when it is too low. Moreover, the fixed coverage level cannot adapt to the specific characteristics of each individual example, limiting the flexibility and efficiency of these methods. In this work, we leverage recent advances in e-values and post-hoc conformal inference, which allow the use of data-dependent coverage levels while maintaining valid statistical guarantees. We propose to optimize an adaptive coverage policy by training a neural network using a leave-one-out procedure on the calibration set, allowing the coverage level and the resulting prediction set size to vary with the difficulty of each individual example. We support our approach with theoretical coverage guarantees and demonstrate its practical benefits through a series of experiments.

Multivariate Conformal Prediction via Conformalized Gaussian Scoring

While achieving exact conditional coverage in conformal prediction is unattainable without making strong, untestable regularity assumptions, the promise of conformal prediction hinges on finding approximations to conditional guarantees that are realizable in practice. A promising direction for obtaining conditional dependence for conformal sets--in particular capturing heteroskedasticity--is through estimating the conditional density $\mathbb{P}_{Y|X}$ and conformalizing its level sets. Previous work in this vein has focused on nonconformity scores based on the empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF). Such scores are, however, computationally costly, typically requiring expensive sampling methods. To avoid the need for sampling, we observe that the CDF-based score reduces to a Mahalanobis distance in the case of Gaussian scores, yielding a closed-form expression that can be directly conformalized. Moreover, the use of a Gaussian-based score opens the door to a number of extensions of the basic conformal method; in particular, we show how to construct conformal sets with missing output values, refine conformal sets as partial information about $Y$ becomes available, and construct conformal sets on transformations of the output space. Finally, empirical results indicate that our approach produces conformal sets that more closely approximate conditional coverage in multivariate settings compared to alternative methods.