Neural Posterior Estimation with Differentiable Simulators

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a promising Bayesian inference framework that alleviates the need for analytic likelihoods to estimate posterior distributions. Recent advances using neural density estimators in SBI algorithms have demonstrated the ability to achieve high-fidelity posteriors, at the expense of a large number of simulations ; which makes their application potentially very time-consuming when using complex physical simulations. In this work we focus on boosting the sample-efficiency of posterior density estimation using the gradients of the simulator. We present a new method to perform Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) with a differentiable simulator. We demonstrate how gradient information helps constrain the shape of the posterior and improves sample-efficiency.

Hybrid Physical-Neural ODEs for Fast N-body Simulations

We present a new scheme to compensate for the small-scales approximations resulting from Particle-Mesh (PM) schemes for cosmological N-body simulations. This kind of simulations are fast and low computational cost realizations of the large scale structures, but lack resolution on small scales. To improve their accuracy, we introduce an additional effective force within the differential equations of the simulation, parameterized by a Fourier-space Neural Network acting on the PM-estimated gravitational potential. We compare the results for the matter power spectrum obtained to the ones obtained by the PGD scheme (Potential gradient descent scheme). We notice a similar improvement in term of power spectrum, but we find that our approach outperforms PGD for the cross-correlation coefficients, and is more robust to changes in simulation settings (different resolutions, different cosmologies).

Bayesian Neural Networks

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related and which are due to the neural network. This means that predictions by neural networks have biases which cannot be trivially distinguished from being due to the true nature of the creation and observation of data or not. In order to attempt to address such issues we discuss Bayesian neural networks: neural networks where the uncertainty due to the network can be characterised. In particular, we present the Bayesian statistical framework which allows us to categorise uncertainty in terms of the ingrained randomness of observing certain data and the uncertainty from our lack of knowledge about how data can be created and observed. In presenting such techniques we show how errors in prediction by neural networks can be obtained in principle, and provide the two favoured methods for characterising these errors. We will also describe how both of these methods have substantial pitfalls when put into practice, highlighting the need for other statistical techniques to truly be able to do inference when using neural networks.

Uncertainty Quantification with Generative Models

We develop a generative model-based approach to Bayesian inverse problems, such as image reconstruction from noisy and incomplete images. Our framework addresses two common challenges of Bayesian reconstructions: 1) It makes use of complex, data-driven priors that comprise all available information about the uncorrupted data distribution. 2) It enables computationally tractable uncertainty quantification in the form of posterior analysis in latent and data space. The method is very efficient in that the generative model only has to be trained once on an uncorrupted data set, after that, the procedure can be used for arbitrary corruption types.