Bayesian Active Learning for Censored Regression

Bayesian active learning is based on information theoretical approaches that focus on maximising the information that new observations provide to the model parameters. This is commonly done by maximising the Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement (BALD) acquisitions function. However, we highlight that it is challenging to estimate BALD when the new data points are subject to censorship, where only clipped values of the targets are observed. To address this, we derive the entropy and the mutual information for censored distributions and derive the BALD objective for active learning in censored regression ($\mathcal{C}$-BALD). We propose a novel modelling approach to estimate the $\mathcal{C}$-BALD objective and use it for active learning in the censored setting. Across a wide range of datasets and models, we demonstrate that $\mathcal{C}$-BALD outperforms other Bayesian active learning methods in censored regression.

Arrival Time Prediction for Autonomous Shuttle Services in the Real World: Evidence from Five Cities

Urban mobility is on the cusp of transformation with the emergence of shared, connected, and cooperative automated vehicles. Yet, for them to be accepted by customers, trust in their punctuality is vital. Many pilot initiatives operate without a fixed schedule, thus enhancing the importance of reliable arrival time (AT) predictions. This study presents an AT prediction system for autonomous shuttles, utilizing separate models for dwell and running time predictions, validated on real-world data from five cities. Alongside established methods such as XGBoost, we explore the benefits of integrating spatial data using graph neural networks (GNN). To accurately handle the case of a shuttle bypassing a stop, we propose a hierarchical model combining a random forest classifier and a GNN. The results for the final AT prediction are promising, showing low errors even when predicting several stops ahead. Yet, no single model emerges as universally superior, and we provide insights into the characteristics of pilot sites that influence the model selection process. Finally, we identify dwell time prediction as the key determinant in overall AT prediction accuracy when autonomous shuttles are deployed in low-traffic areas or under regulatory speed limits. This research provides insights into the current state of autonomous public transport prediction models and paves the way for more data-informed decision-making as the field advances.

Deep Evidential Learning for Bayesian Quantile Regression

It is desirable to have accurate uncertainty estimation from a single deterministic forward-pass model, as traditional methods for uncertainty quantification are computationally expensive. However, this is difficult because single forward-pass models do not sample weights during inference and often make assumptions about the target distribution, such as assuming it is Gaussian. This can be restrictive in regression tasks, where the mean and standard deviation are inadequate to model the target distribution accurately. This paper proposes a deep Bayesian quantile regression model that can estimate the quantiles of a continuous target distribution without the Gaussian assumption. The proposed method is based on evidential learning, which allows the model to capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty with a single deterministic forward-pass model. This makes the method efficient and scalable to large models and datasets. We demonstrate that the proposed method achieves calibrated uncertainties on non-Gaussian distributions, disentanglement of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, and robustness to out-of-distribution samples.

Graph Reinforcement Learning for Network Control via Bi-Level Optimization

Optimization problems over dynamic networks have been extensively studied and widely used in the past decades to formulate numerous real-world problems. However, (1) traditional optimization-based approaches do not scale to large networks, and (2) the design of good heuristics or approximation algorithms often requires significant manual trial-and-error. In this work, we argue that data-driven strategies can automate this process and learn efficient algorithms without compromising optimality. To do so, we present network control problems through the lens of reinforcement learning and propose a graph network-based framework to handle a broad class of problems. Instead of naively computing actions over high-dimensional graph elements, e.g., edges, we propose a bi-level formulation where we (1) specify a desired next state via RL, and (2) solve a convex program to best achieve it, leading to drastically improved scalability and performance. We further highlight a collection of desirable features to system designers, investigate design decisions, and present experiments on real-world control problems showing the utility, scalability, and flexibility of our framework.

Railway Network Delay Evolution: A Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network Approach

Railway operations involve different types of entities (stations, trains, etc.), making the existing graph/network models with homogenous nodes (i.e., the same kind of nodes) incapable of capturing the interactions between the entities. This paper aims to develop a heterogeneous graph neural network (HetGNN) model, which can address different types of nodes (i.e., heterogeneous nodes), to investigate the train delay evolution on railway networks. To this end, a graph architecture combining the HetGNN model and the GraphSAGE homogeneous GNN (HomoGNN), called SAGE-Het, is proposed. The aim is to capture the interactions between trains, trains and stations, and stations and other stations on delay evolution based on different edges. In contrast to the traditional methods that require the inputs to have constant dimensions (e.g., in rectangular or grid-like arrays) or only allow homogeneous nodes in the graph, SAGE-Het allows for flexible inputs and heterogeneous nodes. The data from two sub-networks of the China railway network are applied to test the performance and robustness of the proposed SAGE-Het model. The experimental results show that SAGE-Het exhibits better performance than the existing delay prediction methods and some advanced HetGNNs used for other prediction tasks; the predictive performances of SAGE-Het under different prediction time horizons (10/20/30 min ahead) all outperform other baseline methods; Specifically, the influences of train interactions on delay propagation are investigated based on the proposed model. The results show that train interactions become subtle when the train headways increase . This finding directly contributes to decision-making in the situation where conflict-resolution or train-canceling actions are needed.

Learning to Control Autonomous Fleets from Observation via Offline Reinforcement Learning

Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand (AMoD) systems are a rapidly evolving mode of transportation in which a centrally coordinated fleet of self-driving vehicles dynamically serves travel requests. The control of these systems is typically formulated as a large network optimization problem, and reinforcement learning (RL) has recently emerged as a promising approach to solve the open challenges in this space. However, current RL-based approaches exclusively focus on learning from online data, fundamentally ignoring the per-sample-cost of interactions within real-world transportation systems. To address these limitations, we propose to formalize the control of AMoD systems through the lens of offline reinforcement learning and learn effective control strategies via solely offline data, thus readily available to current mobility operators. We further investigate design decisions and provide experiments on real-world mobility systems showing how offline learning allows to recover AMoD control policies that (i) exhibit performance on par with online methods, (ii) drastically improve data efficiency, and (iii) completely eliminate the need for complex simulated environments. Crucially, this paper demonstrates that offline reinforcement learning is a promising paradigm for the application of RL-based solutions within economically-critical systems, such as mobility systems.

Mind the Gap -- Modelling Difference Between Censored and Uncensored Electric Vehicle Charging Demand

Electric vehicle charging demand models, with charging records as input, will inherently be biased toward the supply of available chargers, as the data do not include demand lost from occupied stations and competitors. This lost demand implies that the records only observe a fraction of the total demand, i.e. the observations are censored, and actual demand is likely higher than what the data reflect. Machine learning models often neglect to account for this censored demand when forecasting the charging demand, which limits models' applications for future expansions and supply management. We address this gap by modelling the charging demand with probabilistic censorship-aware graph neural networks, which learn the latent demand distribution in both the spatial and temporal dimensions. We use GPS trajectories from cars in Copenhagen, Denmark, to study how censoring occurs and much demand is lost due to occupied charging and competing services. We find that censorship varies throughout the city and over time, encouraging spatial and temporal modelling. We find that in some regions of Copenhagen, censorship occurs 61% of the time. Our results show censorship-aware models provide better prediction and uncertainty estimation in actual future demand than censorship-unaware models. Our results suggest that future models based on charging records should account for the censoring to expand the application areas of machine learning models in this supply management and infrastructure expansion.

Context-aware Bayesian choice models

The mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model assumes constant preference parameters of a decision-maker throughout different choice situations, which may be considered too strong for certain choice modelling applications. This paper proposes an effective approach to model context-dependent intra-respondent heterogeneity and introduces the idea of Context-aware Bayesian Mixed Multinomial Logit (C-MMNL) Model, where a neural network maps contextual information to shifts in the preference parameters of each individual in each choice occasion. The proposed model offers several key advantages. First, it supports for both continuous and discrete variables, as well as complex non-linear interactions between both types of variables. Secondly, each specification of the context is considered jointly as a whole by the neural network rather than each variable being considered independently. Finally, since the parameters of the neural network are shared across all decision-makers, it can leverage information from other decision-makers and use it to infer the effect of a particular context. Even though the C-MMNL model allows for flexible interactions between attributes, there is hardly an increase in the complexity of the model and the computation time, compared to the MMNL model. We present two real-world case studies from travel behaviour domain - a travel mode choice model and a bicycle route choice model. The bicycle route choice model is based on a large-scale, crowdsourced dataset of GPS trajectories including 110,083 trips made by 8,555 cyclists.

Representation learning of rare temporal conditions for travel time prediction

Predicting travel time under rare temporal conditions (e.g., public holidays, school vacation period, etc.) constitutes a challenge due to the limitation of historical data. If at all available, historical data often form a heterogeneous time series due to high probability of other changes over long periods of time (e.g., road works, introduced traffic calming initiatives, etc.). This is especially prominent in cities and suburban areas. We present a vector-space model for encoding rare temporal conditions, that allows coherent representation learning across different temporal conditions. We show increased performance for travel time prediction over different baselines when utilizing the vector-space encoding for representing the temporal setting.

On the importance of stationarity, strong baselines and benchmarks in transport prediction problems

Over the last years, the transportation community has witnessed a tremendous amount of research contributions on new deep learning approaches for spatio-temporal forecasting. These contributions tend to emphasize the modeling of spatial correlations, while neglecting the fairly stable and recurrent nature of human mobility patterns. In this short paper, we show that a naive baseline method based on the average weekly pattern and linear regression can achieve comparable results to many state-of-the-art deep learning approaches for spatio-temporal forecasting in transportation, or even outperform them on several datasets, thus contrasting the importance of stationarity and recurrent patterns in the data with the importance of spatial correlations. Furthermore, we establish 9 different reference benchmarks that can be used to compare new approaches for spatio-temporal forecasting, and provide a discussion on best practices and the direction that the field is taking.