RetroMotion: Retrocausal Motion Forecasting Models are Instructable

Motion forecasts of road users (i.e., agents) vary in complexity as a function of scene constraints and interactive behavior. We address this with a multi-task learning method for motion forecasting that includes a retrocausal flow of information. The corresponding tasks are to forecast (1) marginal trajectory distributions for all modeled agents and (2) joint trajectory distributions for interacting agents. Using a transformer model, we generate the joint distributions by re-encoding marginal distributions followed by pairwise modeling. This incorporates a retrocausal flow of information from later points in marginal trajectories to earlier points in joint trajectories. Per trajectory point, we model positional uncertainty using compressed exponential power distributions. Notably, our method achieves state-of-the-art results in the Waymo Interaction Prediction dataset and generalizes well to the Argoverse 2 dataset. Additionally, our method provides an interface for issuing instructions through trajectory modifications. Our experiments show that regular training of motion forecasting leads to the ability to follow goal-based instructions and to adapt basic directional instructions to the scene context. Code: https://github.com/kit-mrt/future-motion

Efficient Sampling in POMDPs with Lipschitz Bandits for Motion Planning in Continuous Spaces

Decision making under uncertainty can be framed as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Finding exact solutions of POMDPs is generally computationally intractable, but the solution can be approximated by sampling-based approaches. These sampling-based POMDP solvers rely on multi-armed bandit (MAB) heuristics, which assume the outcomes of different actions to be uncorrelated. In some applications, like motion planning in continuous spaces, similar actions yield similar outcomes. In this paper, we utilize variants of MAB heuristics that make Lipschitz continuity assumptions on the outcomes of actions to improve the efficiency of sampling-based planning approaches. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach in the context of motion planning for automated driving.

Inspect, Understand, Overcome: A Survey of Practical Methods for AI Safety

The use of deep neural networks (DNNs) in safety-critical applications like mobile health and autonomous driving is challenging due to numerous model-inherent shortcomings. These shortcomings are diverse and range from a lack of generalization over insufficient interpretability to problems with malicious inputs. Cyber-physical systems employing DNNs are therefore likely to suffer from safety concerns. In recent years, a zoo of state-of-the-art techniques aiming to address these safety concerns has emerged. This work provides a structured and broad overview of them. We first identify categories of insufficiencies to then describe research activities aiming at their detection, quantification, or mitigation. Our paper addresses both machine learning experts and safety engineers: The former ones might profit from the broad range of machine learning topics covered and discussions on limitations of recent methods. The latter ones might gain insights into the specifics of modern ML methods. We moreover hope that our contribution fuels discussions on desiderata for ML systems and strategies on how to propel existing approaches accordingly.

Decision-Time Postponing Motion Planning for Combinatorial Uncertain Maneuvering

Motion planning involves decision making among combinatorial maneuver variants in urban driving. A planner must consider uncertainties and associated risks of the maneuver variants, and subsequently select a maneuver alternative. In this paper we present a planning approach that considers the uncertainties in the prediction and, in case of high uncertainty, postpones the combinatorial decision making to a later time within the planning horizon. With our proposed approach, safe but at the same time not overconservative motion is planned.