Granularity at Scale: Estimating Neighborhood Well-Being from High-Resolution Orthographic Imagery and Hybrid Learning

Many areas of the world are without basic information on the well-being of the residing population due to limitations in existing data collection methods. Overhead images obtained remotely, such as from satellite or aircraft, can help serve as windows into the state of life on the ground and help "fill in the gaps" where community information is sparse, with estimates at smaller geographic scales requiring higher resolution sensors. Concurrent with improved sensor resolutions, recent advancements in machine learning and computer vision have made it possible to quickly extract features from and detect patterns in image data, in the process correlating these features with other information. In this work, we explore how well two approaches, a supervised convolutional neural network and semi-supervised clustering based on bag-of-visual-words, estimate population density, median household income, and educational attainment of individual neighborhoods from publicly available high-resolution imagery of cities throughout the United States. Results and analyses indicate that features extracted from the imagery can accurately estimate the density (R$^2$ up to 0.81) of neighborhoods, with the supervised approach able to explain about half the variation in a population's income and education. In addition to the presented approaches serving as a basis for further geographic generalization, the novel semi-supervised approach provides a foundation for future work seeking to estimate fine-scale information from overhead imagery without the need for label data.

ESTA: An Esports Trajectory and Action Dataset

Sports, due to their global reach and impact-rich prediction tasks, are an exciting domain to deploy machine learning models. However, data from conventional sports is often unsuitable for research use due to its size, veracity, and accessibility. To address these issues, we turn to esports, a growing domain that encompasses video games played in a capacity similar to conventional sports. Since esports data is acquired through server logs rather than peripheral sensors, esports provides a unique opportunity to obtain a massive collection of clean and detailed spatiotemporal data, similar to those collected in conventional sports. To parse esports data, we develop awpy, an open-source esports game log parsing library that can extract player trajectories and actions from game logs. Using awpy, we parse 8.6m actions, 7.9m game frames, and 417k trajectories from 1,558 game logs from professional Counter-Strike tournaments to create the Esports Trajectory and Actions (ESTA) dataset. ESTA is one of the largest and most granular publicly available sports data sets to date. We use ESTA to develop benchmarks for win prediction using player-specific information. The ESTA data is available at https://github.com/pnxenopoulos/esta and awpy is made public through PyPI.

Graph Neural Networks to Predict Sports Outcomes

Predicting outcomes in sports is important for teams, leagues, bettors, media, and fans. Given the growing amount of player tracking data, sports analytics models are increasingly utilizing spatially-derived features built upon player tracking data. However, player-specific information, such as location, cannot readily be included as features themselves, since common modeling techniques rely on vector input. Accordingly, spatially-derived features are commonly constructed in relation to anchor objects, such as the distance to a ball or goal, through global feature aggregations, or via role-assignment schemes, where players are designated a distinct role in the game. In doing so, we sacrifice inter-player and local relationships in favor of global ones. To address this issue, we introduce a sport-agnostic graph-based representation of game states. We then use our proposed graph representation as input to graph neural networks to predict sports outcomes. Our approach preserves permutation invariance and allows for flexible player interaction weights. We demonstrate how our method provides statistically significant improvements over the state of the art for prediction tasks in both American football and esports, reducing test set loss by 9% and 20%, respectively. Additionally, we show how our model can be used to answer "what if" questions in sports and to visualize relationships between players.

Calibrate: Interactive Analysis of Probabilistic Model Output

Analyzing classification model performance is a crucial task for machine learning practitioners. While practitioners often use count-based metrics derived from confusion matrices, like accuracy, many applications, such as weather prediction, sports betting, or patient risk prediction, rely on a classifier's predicted probabilities rather than predicted labels. In these instances, practitioners are concerned with producing a calibrated model, that is, one which outputs probabilities that reflect those of the true distribution. Model calibration is often analyzed visually, through static reliability diagrams, however, the traditional calibration visualization may suffer from a variety of drawbacks due to the strong aggregations it necessitates. Furthermore, count-based approaches are unable to sufficiently analyze model calibration. We present Calibrate, an interactive reliability diagram that addresses the aforementioned issues. Calibrate constructs a reliability diagram that is resistant to drawbacks in traditional approaches, and allows for interactive subgroup analysis and instance-level inspection. We demonstrate the utility of Calibrate through use cases on both real-world and synthetic data. We further validate Calibrate by presenting the results of a think-aloud experiment with data scientists who routinely analyze model calibration.

A Study on Robustness to Perturbations for Representations of Environmental Sound

Audio applications involving environmental sound analysis increasingly use general-purpose audio representations, also known as embeddings, for transfer learning. Recently, Holistic Evaluation of Audio Representations (HEAR) evaluated twenty-nine embedding models on nineteen diverse tasks. However, the evaluation's effectiveness depends on the variation already captured within a given dataset. Therefore, for a given data domain, it is unclear how the representations would be affected by the variations caused by myriad microphones' range and acoustic conditions -- commonly known as channel effects. We aim to extend HEAR to evaluate invariance to channel effects in this work. To accomplish this, we imitate channel effects by injecting perturbations to the audio signal and measure the shift in the new (perturbed) embeddings with three distance measures, making the evaluation domain-dependent but not task-dependent. Combined with the downstream performance, it helps us make a more informed prediction of how robust the embeddings are to the channel effects. We evaluate two embeddings -- YAMNet, and OpenL$^3$ on monophonic (UrbanSound8K) and polyphonic (SONYC UST) datasets. We show that one distance measure does not suffice in such task-independent evaluation. Although Fr\'echet Audio Distance (FAD) correlates with the trend of the performance drop in the downstream task most accurately, we show that we need to study this in conjunction with the other distances to get a clear understanding of the overall effect of the perturbation. In terms of the embedding performance, we find OpenL$^3$ to be more robust to YAMNet, which aligns with the HEAR evaluation.

CitySurfaces: City-Scale Semantic Segmentation of Sidewalk Materials

While designing sustainable and resilient urban built environment is increasingly promoted around the world, significant data gaps have made research on pressing sustainability issues challenging to carry out. Pavements are known to have strong economic and environmental impacts; however, most cities lack a spatial catalog of their surfaces due to the cost-prohibitive and time-consuming nature of data collection. Recent advancements in computer vision, together with the availability of street-level images, provide new opportunities for cities to extract large-scale built environment data with lower implementation costs and higher accuracy. In this paper, we propose CitySurfaces, an active learning-based framework that leverages computer vision techniques for classifying sidewalk materials using widely available street-level images. We trained the framework on images from New York City and Boston and the evaluation results show a 90.5% mIoU score. Furthermore, we evaluated the framework using images from six different cities, demonstrating that it can be applied to regions with distinct urban fabrics, even outside the domain of the training data. CitySurfaces can provide researchers and city agencies with a low-cost, accurate, and extensible method to collect sidewalk material data which plays a critical role in addressing major sustainability issues, including climate change and surface water management.

Topological Representations of Local Explanations

Local explainability methods -- those which seek to generate an explanation for each prediction -- are becoming increasingly prevalent due to the need for practitioners to rationalize their model outputs. However, comparing local explainability methods is difficult since they each generate outputs in various scales and dimensions. Furthermore, due to the stochastic nature of some explainability methods, it is possible for different runs of a method to produce contradictory explanations for a given observation. In this paper, we propose a topology-based framework to extract a simplified representation from a set of local explanations. We do so by first modeling the relationship between the explanation space and the model predictions as a scalar function. Then, we compute the topological skeleton of this function. This topological skeleton acts as a signature for such functions, which we use to compare different explanation methods. We demonstrate that our framework can not only reliably identify differences between explainability techniques but also provides stable representations. Then, we show how our framework can be used to identify appropriate parameters for local explainability methods. Our framework is simple, does not require complex optimizations, and can be broadly applied to most local explanation methods. We believe the practicality and versatility of our approach will help promote topology-based approaches as a tool for understanding and comparing explanation methods.

AlphaD3M: Machine Learning Pipeline Synthesis

We introduce AlphaD3M, an automatic machine learning (AutoML) system based on meta reinforcement learning using sequence models with self play. AlphaD3M is based on edit operations performed over machine learning pipeline primitives providing explainability. We compare AlphaD3M with state-of-the-art AutoML systems: Autosklearn, Autostacker, and TPOT, on OpenML datasets. AlphaD3M achieves competitive performance while being an order of magnitude faster, reducing computation time from hours to minutes, and is explainable by design.

NYU-VPR: Long-Term Visual Place Recognition Benchmark with View Direction and Data Anonymization Influences

Visual place recognition (VPR) is critical in not only localization and mapping for autonomous driving vehicles, but also assistive navigation for the visually impaired population. To enable a long-term VPR system on a large scale, several challenges need to be addressed. First, different applications could require different image view directions, such as front views for self-driving cars while side views for the low vision people. Second, VPR in metropolitan scenes can often cause privacy concerns due to the imaging of pedestrian and vehicle identity information, calling for the need for data anonymization before VPR queries and database construction. Both factors could lead to VPR performance variations that are not well understood yet. To study their influences, we present the NYU-VPR dataset that contains more than 200,000 images over a 2km by 2km area near the New York University campus, taken within the whole year of 2016. We present benchmark results on several popular VPR algorithms showing that side views are significantly more challenging for current VPR methods while the influence of data anonymization is almost negligible, together with our hypothetical explanations and in-depth analysis.

Optimal Team Economic Decisions in Counter-Strike

The outputs of win probability models are often used to evaluate player actions. However, in some sports, such as the popular esport Counter-Strike, there exist important team-level decisions. For example, at the beginning of each round in a Counter-Strike game, teams decide how much of their in-game dollars to spend on equipment. Because the dollars are a scarce resource, different strategies have emerged concerning how teams should spend in particular situations. To assess team purchasing decisions in-game, we introduce a game-level win probability model to predict a team's chance of winning a game at the beginning of a given round. We consider features such as team scores, equipment, money, and spending decisions. Using our win probability model, we investigate optimal team spending decisions for important game scenarios. We identify a pattern of sub-optimal decision-making for CSGO teams. Finally, we introduce a metric, Optimal Spending Error (OSE), to rank teams by how closely their spending decisions follow our predicted optimal spending decisions.