Scaling Laws of Motion Forecasting and Planning -- A Technical Report

We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving domain. Using a 500 thousand hours driving dataset, we demonstrate that, similar to language modeling, model performance improves as a power-law function of the total compute budget, and we observe a strong correlation between model training loss and model evaluation metrics. Most interestingly, closed-loop metrics also improve with scaling, which has important implications for the suitability of open-loop metrics for model development and hill climbing. We also study the optimal scaling of the number of transformer parameters and the training data size for a training compute-optimal model. We find that as the training compute budget grows, optimal scaling requires increasing the model size 1.5x as fast as the dataset size. We also study inference-time compute scaling, where we observe that sampling and clustering the output of smaller models makes them competitive with larger models, up to a crossover point beyond which a larger models becomes more inference-compute efficient. Overall, our experimental results demonstrate that optimizing the training and inference-time scaling properties of motion forecasting and planning models is a key lever for improving their performance to address a wide variety of driving scenarios. Finally, we briefly study the utility of training on general logged driving data of other agents to improve the performance of the ego-agent, an important research area to address the scarcity of robotics data for large capacity models training.

A Multi-task Convolutional Neural Network for Autonomous Robotic Grasping in Object Stacking Scenes

Autonomous robotic grasping plays an important role in intelligent robotics. However, how to help the robot grasp specific objects in object stacking scenes is still an open problem, because there are two main challenges for autonomous robots: (1)it is a comprehensive task to know what and how to grasp; (2)it is hard to deal with the situations in which the target is hidden or covered by other objects. In this paper, we propose a multi-task convolutional neural network for autonomous robotic grasping, which can help the robot find the target, make the plan for grasping and finally grasp the target step by step in object stacking scenes. We integrate vision-based robotic grasping detection and visual manipulation relationship reasoning in one single deep network and build the autonomous robotic grasping system. Experimental results demonstrate that with our model, Baxter robot can autonomously grasp the target with a success rate of 90.6%, 71.9% and 59.4% in object cluttered scenes, familiar stacking scenes and complex stacking scenes respectively.