Generative Algorithms for Fusion of Physics-Based Wildfire Spread Models with Satellite Data for Initializing Wildfire Forecasts

Increases in wildfire activity and the resulting impacts have prompted the development of high-resolution wildfire behavior models for forecasting fire spread. Recent progress in using satellites to detect fire locations further provides the opportunity to use measurements to improve fire spread forecasts from numerical models through data assimilation. This work develops a method for inferring the history of a wildfire from satellite measurements, providing the necessary information to initialize coupled atmosphere-wildfire models from a measured wildfire state in a physics-informed approach. The fire arrival time, which is the time the fire reaches a given spatial location, acts as a succinct representation of the history of a wildfire. In this work, a conditional Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (cWGAN), trained with WRF-SFIRE simulations, is used to infer the fire arrival time from satellite active fire data. The cWGAN is used to produce samples of likely fire arrival times from the conditional distribution of arrival times given satellite active fire detections. Samples produced by the cWGAN are further used to assess the uncertainty of predictions. The cWGAN is tested on four California wildfires occurring between 2020 and 2022, and predictions for fire extent are compared against high resolution airborne infrared measurements. Further, the predicted ignition times are compared with reported ignition times. An average Sorensen's coefficient of 0.81 for the fire perimeters and an average ignition time error of 32 minutes suggest that the method is highly accurate.

Benchmarking features from different radiomics toolkits / toolboxes using Image Biomarkers Standardization Initiative

There is no consensus regarding the radiomic feature terminology, the underlying mathematics, or their implementation. This creates a scenario where features extracted using different toolboxes could not be used to build or validate the same model leading to a non-generalization of radiomic results. In this study, the image biomarker standardization initiative (IBSI) established phantom and benchmark values were used to compare the variation of the radiomic features while using 6 publicly available software programs and 1 in-house radiomics pipeline. All IBSI-standardized features (11 classes, 173 in total) were extracted. The relative differences between the extracted feature values from the different software and the IBSI benchmark values were calculated to measure the inter-software agreement. To better understand the variations, features are further grouped into 3 categories according to their properties: 1) morphology, 2) statistic/histogram and 3)texture features. While a good agreement was observed for a majority of radiomics features across the various programs, relatively poor agreement was observed for morphology features. Significant differences were also found in programs that use different gray level discretization approaches. Since these programs do not include all IBSI features, the level of quantitative assessment for each category was analyzed using Venn and the UpSet diagrams and also quantified using two ad hoc metrics. Morphology features earns lowest scores for both metrics, indicating that morphological features are not consistently evaluated among software programs. We conclude that radiomic features calculated using different software programs may not be identical and reliable. Further studies are needed to standardize the workflow of radiomic feature extraction.