How do LLMs Compute Verbal Confidence

Verbal confidence -- prompting LLMs to state their confidence as a number or category -- is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from black-box models. However, how LLMs internally generate such scores remains unknown. We address two questions: first, when confidence is computed - just-in-time when requested, or automatically during answer generation and cached for later retrieval; and second, what verbal confidence represents - token log-probabilities, or a richer evaluation of answer quality? Focusing on Gemma 3 27B and Qwen 2.5 7B, we provide convergent evidence for cached retrieval. Activation steering, patching, noising, and swap experiments reveal that confidence representations emerge at answer-adjacent positions before appearing at the verbalization site. Attention blocking pinpoints the information flow: confidence is gathered from answer tokens, cached at the first post-answer position, then retrieved for output. Critically, linear probing and variance partitioning reveal that these cached representations explain substantial variance in verbal confidence beyond token log-probabilities, suggesting a richer answer-quality evaluation rather than a simple fluency readout. These findings demonstrate that verbal confidence reflects automatic, sophisticated self-evaluation -- not post-hoc reconstruction -- with implications for understanding metacognition in LLMs and improving calibration.

Automatically Finding Reward Model Biases

Reward models are central to large language model (LLM) post-training. However, past work has shown that they can reward spurious or undesirable attributes such as length, format, hallucinations, and sycophancy. In this work, we introduce and study the research problem of automatically finding reward model biases in natural language. We offer a simple approach of using an LLM to iteratively propose and refine candidate biases. Our method can recover known biases and surface novel ones: for example, we found that Skywork-V2-8B, a leading open-weight reward model, often mistakenly favors responses with redundant spacing and responses with hallucinated content. In addition, we show evidence that evolutionary iteration outperforms flat best-of-N search, and we validate the recall of our pipeline using synthetically injected biases. We hope our work contributes to further research on improving RMs through automated interpretability methods.

Simple LLM Baselines are Competitive for Model Diffing

Standard LLM evaluations only test capabilities or dispositions that evaluators designed them for, missing unexpected differences such as behavioral shifts between model revisions or emergent misaligned tendencies. Model diffing addresses this limitation by automatically surfacing systematic behavioral differences. Recent approaches include LLM-based methods that generate natural language descriptions and sparse autoencoder (SAE)-based methods that identify interpretable features. However, no systematic comparison of these approaches exists nor are there established evaluation criteria. We address this gap by proposing evaluation metrics for key desiderata (generalization, interestingness, and abstraction level) and use these to compare existing methods. Our results show that an improved LLM-based baseline performs comparably to the SAE-based method while typically surfacing more abstract behavioral differences.

Fluid Representations in Reasoning Models

Reasoning language models, which generate long chains of thought, dramatically outperform non-reasoning language models on abstract problems. However, the internal model mechanisms that allow this superior performance remain poorly understood. We present a mechanistic analysis of how QwQ-32B - a model specifically trained to produce extensive reasoning traces - process abstract structural information. On Mystery Blocksworld - a semantically obfuscated planning domain - we find that QwQ-32B gradually improves its internal representation of actions and concepts during reasoning. The model develops abstract encodings that focus on structure rather than specific action names. Through steering experiments, we establish causal evidence that these adaptations improve problem solving: injecting refined representations from successful traces boosts accuracy, while symbolic representations can replace many obfuscated encodings with minimal performance loss. We find that one of the factors driving reasoning model performance is in-context refinement of token representations, which we dub Fluid Reasoning Representations.

Building Production-Ready Probes For Gemini

Frontier language model capabilities are improving rapidly. We thus need stronger mitigations against bad actors misusing increasingly powerful systems. Prior work has shown that activation probes may be a promising misuse mitigation technique, but we identify a key remaining challenge: probes fail to generalize under important production distribution shifts. In particular, we find that the shift from short-context to long-context inputs is difficult for existing probe architectures. We propose several new probe architecture that handle this long-context distribution shift. We evaluate these probes in the cyber-offensive domain, testing their robustness against various production-relevant shifts, including multi-turn conversations, static jailbreaks, and adaptive red teaming. Our results demonstrate that while multimax addresses context length, a combination of architecture choice and training on diverse distributions is required for broad generalization. Additionally, we show that pairing probes with prompted classifiers achieves optimal accuracy at a low cost due to the computational efficiency of probes. These findings have informed the successful deployment of misuse mitigation probes in user-facing instances of Gemini, Google's frontier language model. Finally, we find early positive results using AlphaEvolve to automate improvements in both probe architecture search and adaptive red teaming, showing that automating some AI safety research is already possible.

Thought Anchors: Which LLM Reasoning Steps Matter?

Reasoning large language models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in many fields. However, their long-form chain-of-thought reasoning creates interpretability challenges as each generated token depends on all previous ones, making the computation harder to decompose. We argue that analyzing reasoning traces at the sentence level is a promising approach to understanding reasoning processes. We present three complementary attribution methods: (1) a black-box method measuring each sentence's counterfactual importance by comparing final answers across 100 rollouts conditioned on the model generating that sentence or one with a different meaning; (2) a white-box method of aggregating attention patterns between pairs of sentences, which identified ``broadcasting'' sentences that receive disproportionate attention from all future sentences via ``receiver'' attention heads; (3) a causal attribution method measuring logical connections between sentences by suppressing attention toward one sentence and measuring the effect on each future sentence's tokens. Each method provides evidence for the existence of thought anchors, reasoning steps that have outsized importance and that disproportionately influence the subsequent reasoning process. These thought anchors are typically planning or backtracking sentences. We provide an open-source tool (www.thought-anchors.com) for visualizing the outputs of our methods, and present a case study showing converging patterns across methods that map how a model performs multi-step reasoning. The consistency across methods demonstrates the potential of sentence-level analysis for a deeper understanding of reasoning models.

Line of Sight: On Linear Representations in VLLMs

Language models can be equipped with multimodal capabilities by fine-tuning on embeddings of visual inputs. But how do such multimodal models represent images in their hidden activations? We explore representations of image concepts within LlaVA-Next, a popular open-source VLLM. We find a diverse set of ImageNet classes represented via linearly decodable features in the residual stream. We show that the features are causal by performing targeted edits on the model output. In order to increase the diversity of the studied linear features, we train multimodal Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs), creating a highly interpretable dictionary of text and image features. We find that although model representations across modalities are quite disjoint, they become increasingly shared in deeper layers.

Interpreting Large Text-to-Image Diffusion Models with Dictionary Learning

Sparse autoencoders are a promising new approach for decomposing language model activations for interpretation and control. They have been applied successfully to vision transformer image encoders and to small-scale diffusion models. Inference-Time Decomposition of Activations (ITDA) is a recently proposed variant of dictionary learning that takes the dictionary to be a set of data points from the activation distribution and reconstructs them with gradient pursuit. We apply Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) and ITDA to a large text-to-image diffusion model, Flux 1, and consider the interpretability of embeddings of both by introducing a visual automated interpretation pipeline. We find that SAEs accurately reconstruct residual stream embeddings and beat MLP neurons on interpretability. We are able to use SAE features to steer image generation through activation addition. We find that ITDA has comparable interpretability to SAEs.

Scaling sparse feature circuit finding for in-context learning

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are a popular tool for interpreting large language model activations, but their utility in addressing open questions in interpretability remains unclear. In this work, we demonstrate their effectiveness by using SAEs to deepen our understanding of the mechanism behind in-context learning (ICL). We identify abstract SAE features that (i) encode the model's knowledge of which task to execute and (ii) whose latent vectors causally induce the task zero-shot. This aligns with prior work showing that ICL is mediated by task vectors. We further demonstrate that these task vectors are well approximated by a sparse sum of SAE latents, including these task-execution features. To explore the ICL mechanism, we adapt the sparse feature circuits methodology of Marks et al. (2024) to work for the much larger Gemma-1 2B model, with 30 times as many parameters, and to the more complex task of ICL. Through circuit finding, we discover task-detecting features with corresponding SAE latents that activate earlier in the prompt, that detect when tasks have been performed. They are causally linked with task-execution features through the attention and MLP sublayers.

An Approach to Technical AGI Safety and Security

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) promises transformative benefits but also presents significant risks. We develop an approach to address the risk of harms consequential enough to significantly harm humanity. We identify four areas of risk: misuse, misalignment, mistakes, and structural risks. Of these, we focus on technical approaches to misuse and misalignment. For misuse, our strategy aims to prevent threat actors from accessing dangerous capabilities, by proactively identifying dangerous capabilities, and implementing robust security, access restrictions, monitoring, and model safety mitigations. To address misalignment, we outline two lines of defense. First, model-level mitigations such as amplified oversight and robust training can help to build an aligned model. Second, system-level security measures such as monitoring and access control can mitigate harm even if the model is misaligned. Techniques from interpretability, uncertainty estimation, and safer design patterns can enhance the effectiveness of these mitigations. Finally, we briefly outline how these ingredients could be combined to produce safety cases for AGI systems.