A Causal Framework to Evaluate Racial Bias in Law Enforcement Systems

We are interested in developing a data-driven method to evaluate race-induced biases in law enforcement systems. While the recent works have addressed this question in the context of police-civilian interactions using police stop data, they have two key limitations. First, bias can only be properly quantified if true criminality is accounted for in addition to race, but it is absent in prior works. Second, law enforcement systems are multi-stage and hence it is important to isolate the true source of bias within the "causal chain of interactions" rather than simply focusing on the end outcome; this can help guide reforms. In this work, we address these challenges by presenting a multi-stage causal framework incorporating criminality. We provide a theoretical characterization and an associated data-driven method to evaluate (a) the presence of any form of racial bias, and (b) if so, the primary source of such a bias in terms of race and criminality. Our framework identifies three canonical scenarios with distinct characteristics: in settings like (1) airport security, the primary source of observed bias against a race is likely to be bias in law enforcement against innocents of that race; (2) AI-empowered policing, the primary source of observed bias against a race is likely to be bias in law enforcement against criminals of that race; and (3) police-civilian interaction, the primary source of observed bias against a race could be bias in law enforcement against that race or bias from the general public in reporting against the other race. Through an extensive empirical study using police-civilian interaction data and 911 call data, we find an instance of such a counter-intuitive phenomenon: in New Orleans, the observed bias is against the majority race and the likely reason for it is the over-reporting (via 911 calls) of incidents involving the minority race by the general public.

Hidden Markov Models with Momentum

Momentum is a popular technique for improving convergence rates during gradient descent. In this research, we experiment with adding momentum to the Baum-Welch expectation-maximization algorithm for training Hidden Markov Models. We compare discrete Hidden Markov Models trained with and without momentum on English text and malware opcode data. The effectiveness of momentum is determined by measuring the changes in model score and classification accuracy due to momentum. Our extensive experiments indicate that adding momentum to Baum-Welch can reduce the number of iterations required for initial convergence during HMM training, particularly in cases where the model is slow to converge. However, momentum does not seem to improve the final model performance at a high number of iterations.

Mechanics-based Analysis on Flagellated Robots

We explore the locomotion of soft robots in granular medium (GM) resulting from the elastic deformation of slender rods. A low-cost, rapidly fabricable robot inspired by the physiological structure of bacteria is presented. It consists of a rigid head, with a motor and batteries embedded, and multiple elastic rods (our model for flagella) to investigate locomotion in GM. The elastic flagella are rotated at one end by the motor, and they deform due to the drag from GM, propelling the robot. The external drag is determined by the flagellar shape, while the latter changes due to the competition between external loading and elastic forces. In this coupled fluid-structure interaction problem, we observe that increasing the number of flagella can decrease or increase the propulsive speed of the robot, depending on the physical parameters of the system. This nonlinearity in the functional relation between propulsion and the parameters of this simple robot motivates us to fundamentally analyze its mechanics using theory, numerical simulation, and experiments. We present a simple Euler-Bernoulli beam theory-based analytical framework that is capable of qualitatively capturing both cases. Theoretical prediction quantitatively matches experiments when the flagellar deformation is small. To account for the geometrically nonlinear deformation often encountered in soft robots and microbes, we implement a simulation framework that incorporates discrete differential geometry-based simulations of elastic rods, a resistive force theory-based model for drag, and a modified Stokes law for the hydrodynamics of the robot head. Comparison with experimental data indicates that the simulations can quantitatively predict robotic motion. Overall, the theoretical and numerical tools presented in this paper can shed light on the design and control of this class of articulated robots in granular or fluid media.

Simple Flagellated Soft Robot for Locomotion near Air-Fluid Interface

A wide range of microorganisms, e.g. bacteria, propel themselves by rotation of soft helical tails, also known as flagella. Due to the small size of these organisms, viscous forces overwhelm inertial effects and the flow is at low Reynolds number. In this fluid-structure problem, a competition between elastic forces and hydrodynamic (viscous) forces leads to a net propulsive force forward. A thorough understanding of this highly coupled fluid-structure interaction problem can not only help us better understand biological propulsion but also help us design bio-inspired functional robots with applications in oil spill cleanup, water quality monitoring, and infrastructure inspection. Here, we introduce arguably the simplest soft robot with a single binary control signal, which is capable of moving along an arbitrary 2D trajectory near air-fluid interface and at the interface between two fluids. The robot exploits the variation in viscosity to move along the prescribed trajectory. Our analysis of this newly introduced soft robot consists of three main components. First, we fabricate this simple robot and use it as an experimental testbed. Second, a discrete differential geometry-based modeling framework is used for simulation of the robot. Upon validation of the simulation tool, the third part of this study employs the simulations to develop a control scheme with a single binary input to make the robot follow any prescribed path.

Hierarchical Inducing Point Gaussian Process for Inter-domain Observations

We examine the general problem of inter-domain Gaussian Processes (GPs): problems where the GP realization and the noisy observations of that realization lie on different domains. When the mapping between those domains is linear, such as integration or differentiation, inference is still closed form. However, many of the scaling and approximation techniques that our community has developed do not apply to this setting. In this work, we introduce the hierarchical inducing point GP (HIP-GP), a scalable inter-domain GP inference method that enables us to improve the approximation accuracy by increasing the number of inducing points to the millions. HIP-GP, which relies on inducing points with grid structure and a stationary kernel assumption, is suitable for low-dimensional problems. In developing HIP-GP, we introduce (1) a fast whitening strategy, and (2) a novel preconditioner for conjugate gradients which can be helpful in general GP settings.

Adaptive Synthetic Characters for Military Training

Behaviors of the synthetic characters in current military simulations are limited since they are generally generated by rule-based and reactive computational models with minimal intelligence. Such computational models cannot adapt to reflect the experience of the characters, resulting in brittle intelligence for even the most effective behavior models devised via costly and labor-intensive processes. Observation-based behavior model adaptation that leverages machine learning and the experience of synthetic entities in combination with appropriate prior knowledge can address the issues in the existing computational behavior models to create a better training experience in military training simulations. In this paper, we introduce a framework that aims to create autonomous synthetic characters that can perform coherent sequences of believable behavior while being aware of human trainees and their needs within a training simulation. This framework brings together three mutually complementary components. The first component is a Unity-based simulation environment - Rapid Integration and Development Environment (RIDE) - supporting One World Terrain (OWT) models and capable of running and supporting machine learning experiments. The second is Shiva, a novel multi-agent reinforcement and imitation learning framework that can interface with a variety of simulation environments, and that can additionally utilize a variety of learning algorithms. The final component is the Sigma Cognitive Architecture that will augment the behavior models with symbolic and probabilistic reasoning capabilities. We have successfully created proof-of-concept behavior models leveraging this framework on realistic terrain as an essential step towards bringing machine learning into military simulations.

Celeste: Variational inference for a generative model of astronomical images

We present a new, fully generative model of optical telescope image sets, along with a variational procedure for inference. Each pixel intensity is treated as a Poisson random variable, with a rate parameter dependent on latent properties of stars and galaxies. Key latent properties are themselves random, with scientific prior distributions constructed from large ancillary data sets. We check our approach on synthetic images. We also run it on images from a major sky survey, where it exceeds the performance of the current state-of-the-art method for locating celestial bodies and measuring their colors.

Factorized Point Process Intensities: A Spatial Analysis of Professional Basketball

We develop a machine learning approach to represent and analyze the underlying spatial structure that governs shot selection among professional basketball players in the NBA. Typically, NBA players are discussed and compared in an heuristic, imprecise manner that relies on unmeasured intuitions about player behavior. This makes it difficult to draw comparisons between players and make accurate player specific predictions. Modeling shot attempt data as a point process, we create a low dimensional representation of offensive player types in the NBA. Using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), an unsupervised dimensionality reduction technique, we show that a low-rank spatial decomposition summarizes the shooting habits of NBA players. The spatial representations discovered by the algorithm correspond to intuitive descriptions of NBA player types, and can be used to model other spatial effects, such as shooting accuracy.