A theoretical framework for self-supervised contrastive learning for continuous dependent data

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has emerged as a powerful approach to learning representations, particularly in the field of computer vision. However, its application to dependent data, such as temporal and spatio-temporal domains, remains underexplored. Besides, traditional contrastive SSL methods often assume \emph{semantic independence between samples}, which does not hold for dependent data exhibiting complex correlations. We propose a novel theoretical framework for contrastive SSL tailored to \emph{continuous dependent data}, which allows the nearest samples to be semantically close to each other. In particular, we propose two possible \textit{ground truth similarity measures} between objects -- \emph{hard} and \emph{soft} closeness. Under it, we derive an analytical form for the \textit{estimated similarity matrix} that accommodates both types of closeness between samples, thereby introducing dependency-aware loss functions. We validate our approach, \emph{Dependent TS2Vec}, on temporal and spatio-temporal downstream problems. Given the dependency patterns presented in the data, our approach surpasses modern ones for dependent data, highlighting the effectiveness of our theoretically grounded loss functions for SSL in capturing spatio-temporal dependencies. Specifically, we outperform TS2Vec on the standard UEA and UCR benchmarks, with accuracy improvements of $4.17$\% and $2.08$\%, respectively. Furthermore, on the drought classification task, which involves complex spatio-temporal patterns, our method achieves a $7$\% higher ROC-AUC score.

Attention Head Embeddings with Trainable Deep Kernels for Hallucination Detection in LLMs

We present a novel approach for detecting hallucinations in large language models (LLMs) by analyzing the probabilistic divergence between prompt and response hidden-state distributions. Counterintuitively, we find that hallucinated responses exhibit smaller deviations from their prompts compared to grounded responses, suggesting that hallucinations often arise from superficial rephrasing rather than substantive reasoning. Leveraging this insight, we propose a model-intrinsic detection method that uses distributional distances as principled hallucination scores, eliminating the need for external knowledge or auxiliary models. To enhance sensitivity, we employ deep learnable kernels that automatically adapt to capture nuanced geometric differences between distributions. Our approach outperforms existing baselines, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance on several benchmarks. The method remains competitive even without kernel training, offering a robust, scalable solution for hallucination detection.

WWAggr: A Window Wasserstein-based Aggregation for Ensemble Change Point Detection

Change Point Detection (CPD) aims to identify moments of abrupt distribution shifts in data streams. Real-world high-dimensional CPD remains challenging due to data pattern complexity and violation of common assumptions. Resorting to standalone deep neural networks, the current state-of-the-art detectors have yet to achieve perfect quality. Concurrently, ensembling provides more robust solutions, boosting the performance. In this paper, we investigate ensembles of deep change point detectors and realize that standard prediction aggregation techniques, e.g., averaging, are suboptimal and fail to account for problem peculiarities. Alternatively, we introduce WWAggr -- a novel task-specific method of ensemble aggregation based on the Wasserstein distance. Our procedure is versatile, working effectively with various ensembles of deep CPD models. Moreover, unlike existing solutions, we practically lift a long-standing problem of the decision threshold selection for CPD.

AdUE: Improving uncertainty estimation head for LoRA adapters in LLMs

Uncertainty estimation remains a critical challenge in adapting pre-trained language models to classification tasks, particularly under parameter-efficient fine-tuning approaches such as adapters. We introduce AdUE1, an efficient post-hoc uncertainty estimation (UE) method, to enhance softmax-based estimates. Our approach (1) uses a differentiable approximation of the maximum function and (2) applies additional regularization through L2-SP, anchoring the fine-tuned head weights and regularizing the model. Evaluations on five NLP classification datasets across four language models (RoBERTa, ELECTRA, LLaMA-2, Qwen) demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms established baselines such as Mahalanobis distance and softmax response. Our approach is lightweight (no base-model changes) and produces better-calibrated confidence.

Never Skip a Batch: Continuous Training of Temporal GNNs via Adaptive Pseudo-Supervision

Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs), while being accurate, face significant training inefficiencies due to irregular supervision signals in dynamic graphs, which induce sparse gradient updates. We first theoretically establish that aggregating historical node interactions into pseudo-labels reduces gradient variance, accelerating convergence. Building on this analysis, we propose History-Averaged Labels (HAL), a method that dynamically enriches training batches with pseudo-targets derived from historical label distributions. HAL ensures continuous parameter updates without architectural modifications by converting idle computation into productive learning steps. Experiments on the Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB) validate our findings and an assumption about slow change of user preferences: HAL accelerates TGNv2 training by up to 15x while maintaining competitive performance. Thus, this work offers an efficient, lightweight, architecture-agnostic, and theoretically motivated solution to label sparsity in temporal graph learning.

Hallucination Detection in LLMs via Topological Divergence on Attention Graphs

Hallucination, i.e., generating factually incorrect content, remains a critical challenge for large language models (LLMs). We introduce TOHA, a TOpology-based HAllucination detector in the RAG setting, which leverages a topological divergence metric to quantify the structural properties of graphs induced by attention matrices. Examining the topological divergence between prompt and response subgraphs reveals consistent patterns: higher divergence values in specific attention heads correlate with hallucinated outputs, independent of the dataset. Extensive experiments, including evaluation on question answering and data-to-text tasks, show that our approach achieves state-of-the-art or competitive results on several benchmarks, two of which were annotated by us and are being publicly released to facilitate further research. Beyond its strong in-domain performance, TOHA maintains remarkable domain transferability across multiple open-source LLMs. Our findings suggest that analyzing the topological structure of attention matrices can serve as an efficient and robust indicator of factual reliability in LLMs.

When an LLM is apprehensive about its answers -- and when its uncertainty is justified

Uncertainty estimation is crucial for evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes domains where incorrect answers result in significant consequences. Numerous approaches consider this problem, while focusing on a specific type of uncertainty, ignoring others. We investigate what estimates, specifically token-wise entropy and model-as-judge (MASJ), would work for multiple-choice question-answering tasks for different question topics. Our experiments consider three LLMs: Phi-4, Mistral, and Qwen of different sizes from 1.5B to 72B and $14$ topics. While MASJ performs similarly to a random error predictor, the response entropy predicts model error in knowledge-dependent domains and serves as an effective indicator of question difficulty: for biology ROC AUC is $0.73$. This correlation vanishes for the reasoning-dependent domain: for math questions ROC-AUC is $0.55$. More principally, we found out that the entropy measure required a reasoning amount. Thus, data-uncertainty related entropy should be integrated within uncertainty estimates frameworks, while MASJ requires refinement. Moreover, existing MMLU-Pro samples are biased, and should balance required amount of reasoning for different subdomains to provide a more fair assessment of LLMs performance.

Concealed Adversarial attacks on neural networks for sequential data

The emergence of deep learning led to the broad usage of neural networks in the time series domain for various applications, including finance and medicine. While powerful, these models are prone to adversarial attacks: a benign targeted perturbation of input data leads to significant changes in a classifier's output. However, formally small attacks in the time series domain become easily detected by the human eye or a simple detector model. We develop a concealed adversarial attack for different time-series models: it provides more realistic perturbations, being hard to detect by a human or model discriminator. To achieve this goal, the proposed adversarial attack maximizes an aggregation of a classifier and a trained discriminator loss. To make the attack stronger, we also propose a training procedure for a discriminator that provides broader coverage of possible attacks. Extensive benchmarking on six UCR time series datasets across four diverse architectures - including recurrent, convolutional, state-space, and transformer-based models - demonstrates the superiority of our attack for a concealability-efficiency trade-off. Our findings highlight the growing challenge of designing robust time series models, emphasizing the need for improved defenses against realistic and effective attacks.

Normalizing self-supervised learning for provably reliable Change Point Detection

Change point detection (CPD) methods aim to identify abrupt shifts in the distribution of input data streams. Accurate estimators for this task are crucial across various real-world scenarios. Yet, traditional unsupervised CPD techniques face significant limitations, often relying on strong assumptions or suffering from low expressive power due to inherent model simplicity. In contrast, representation learning methods overcome these drawbacks by offering flexibility and the ability to capture the full complexity of the data without imposing restrictive assumptions. However, these approaches are still emerging in the CPD field and lack robust theoretical foundations to ensure their reliability. Our work addresses this gap by integrating the expressive power of representation learning with the groundedness of traditional CPD techniques. We adopt spectral normalization (SN) for deep representation learning in CPD tasks and prove that the embeddings after SN are highly informative for CPD. Our method significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art methods during the comprehensive evaluation via three standard CPD datasets.

Collusion Detection with Graph Neural Networks

Collusion is a complex phenomenon in which companies secretly collaborate to engage in fraudulent practices. This paper presents an innovative methodology for detecting and predicting collusion patterns in different national markets using neural networks (NNs) and graph neural networks (GNNs). GNNs are particularly well suited to this task because they can exploit the inherent network structures present in collusion and many other economic problems. Our approach consists of two phases: In Phase I, we develop and train models on individual market datasets from Japan, the United States, two regions in Switzerland, Italy, and Brazil, focusing on predicting collusion in single markets. In Phase II, we extend the models' applicability through zero-shot learning, employing a transfer learning approach that can detect collusion in markets in which training data is unavailable. This phase also incorporates out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization to evaluate the models' performance on unseen datasets from other countries and regions. In our empirical study, we show that GNNs outperform NNs in detecting complex collusive patterns. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on preventing collusion and optimizing detection methodologies, providing valuable guidance on the use of NNs and GNNs in economic applications to enhance market fairness and economic welfare.