Intersectional Fairness: A Fractal Approach

The issue of fairness in AI has received an increasing amount of attention in recent years. The problem can be approached by looking at different protected attributes (e.g., ethnicity, gender, etc) independently, but fairness for individual protected attributes does not imply intersectional fairness. In this work, we frame the problem of intersectional fairness within a geometrical setting. We project our data onto a hypercube, and split the analysis of fairness by levels, where each level encodes the number of protected attributes we are intersecting over. We prove mathematically that, while fairness does not propagate "down" the levels, it does propagate "up" the levels. This means that ensuring fairness for all subgroups at the lowest intersectional level (e.g., black women, white women, black men and white men), will necessarily result in fairness for all the above levels, including each of the protected attributes (e.g., ethnicity and gender) taken independently. We also derive a formula describing the variance of the set of estimated success rates on each level, under the assumption of perfect fairness. Using this theoretical finding as a benchmark, we define a family of metrics which capture overall intersectional bias. Finally, we propose that fairness can be metaphorically thought of as a "fractal" problem. In fractals, patterns at the smallest scale repeat at a larger scale. We see from this example that tackling the problem at the lowest possible level, in a bottom-up manner, leads to the natural emergence of fair AI. We suggest that trustworthiness is necessarily an emergent, fractal and relational property of the AI system.

Local and Global Explainability Metrics for Machine Learning Predictions

Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technology have brought about a plethora of new challenges in terms of governance and regulation. AI systems are being integrated into various industries and sectors, creating a demand from decision-makers to possess a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the capabilities and limitations of these systems. One critical aspect of this demand is the ability to explain the results of machine learning models, which is crucial to promoting transparency and trust in AI systems, as well as fundamental in helping machine learning models to be trained ethically. In this paper, we present novel quantitative metrics frameworks for interpreting the predictions of classifier and regressor models. The proposed metrics are model agnostic and are defined in order to be able to quantify: i. the interpretability factors based on global and local feature importance distributions; ii. the variability of feature impact on the model output; and iii. the complexity of feature interactions within model decisions. We employ publicly available datasets to apply our proposed metrics to various machine learning models focused on predicting customers' credit risk (classification task) and real estate price valuation (regression task). The results expose how these metrics can provide a more comprehensive understanding of model predictions and facilitate better communication between decision-makers and stakeholders, thereby increasing the overall transparency and accountability of AI systems.

Uncovering Bias in Face Generation Models

Recent advancements in GANs and diffusion models have enabled the creation of high-resolution, hyper-realistic images. However, these models may misrepresent certain social groups and present bias. Understanding bias in these models remains an important research question, especially for tasks that support critical decision-making and could affect minorities. The contribution of this work is a novel analysis covering architectures and embedding spaces for fine-grained understanding of bias over three approaches: generators, attribute modifier, and post-processing bias mitigators. This work shows that generators suffer from bias across all social groups with attribute preferences such as between 75%-85% for whiteness and 60%-80% for the female gender (for all trained CelebA models) and low probabilities of generating children and older men. Modifier and mitigators work as post-processor and change the generator performance. For instance, attribute channel perturbation strategies modify the embedding spaces. We quantify the influence of this change on group fairness by measuring the impact on image quality and group features. Specifically, we use the Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID), the Face Matching Error and the Self-Similarity score. For Interfacegan, we analyze one and two attribute channel perturbations and examine the effect on the fairness distribution and the quality of the image. Finally, we analyzed the post-processing bias mitigators, which are the fastest and most computationally efficient way to mitigate bias. We find that these mitigation techniques show similar results on KL divergence and FID score, however, self-similarity scores show a different feature concentration on the new groups of the data distribution. The weaknesses and ongoing challenges described in this work must be considered in the pursuit of creating fair and unbiased face generation models.

Local Law 144: A Critical Analysis of Regression Metrics

The use of automated decision tools in recruitment has received an increasing amount of attention. In November 2021, the New York City Council passed a legislation (Local Law 144) that mandates bias audits of Automated Employment Decision Tools. From 15th April 2023, companies that use automated tools for hiring or promoting employees are required to have these systems audited by an independent entity. Auditors are asked to compute bias metrics that compare outcomes for different groups, based on sex/gender and race/ethnicity categories at a minimum. Local Law 144 proposes novel bias metrics for regression tasks (scenarios where the automated system scores candidates with a continuous range of values). A previous version of the legislation proposed a bias metric that compared the mean scores of different groups. The new revised bias metric compares the proportion of candidates in each group that falls above the median. In this paper, we argue that both metrics fail to capture distributional differences over the whole domain, and therefore cannot reliably detect bias. We first introduce two metrics, as possible alternatives to the legislation metrics. We then compare these metrics over a range of theoretical examples, for which the legislation proposed metrics seem to underestimate bias. Finally, we study real data and show that the legislation metrics can similarly fail in a real-world recruitment application.

QuantNet: Transferring Learning Across Systematic Trading Strategies

In this work we introduce QuantNet: an architecture that is capable of transferring knowledge over systematic trading strategies in several financial markets. By having a system that is able to leverage and share knowledge across them, our aim is two-fold: to circumvent the so-called Backtest Overfitting problem; and to generate higher risk-adjusted returns and fewer drawdowns. To do that, QuantNet exploits a form of modelling called Transfer Learning, where two layers are market-specific and another one is market-agnostic. This ensures that the transfer occurs across trading strategies, with the market-agnostic layer acting as a vehicle to share knowledge, cross-influence each strategy parameters, and ultimately the trading signal produced. In order to evaluate QuantNet, we compared its performance in relation to the option of not performing transfer learning, that is, using market-specific old-fashioned machine learning. In summary, our findings suggest that QuantNet performs better than non transfer-based trading strategies, improving Sharpe ratio in 15% and Calmar ratio in 41% across 3103 assets in 58 equity markets across the world. Code coming soon.

Augmenting correlation structures in spatial data using deep generative models

State-of-the-art deep learning methods have shown a remarkable capacity to model complex data domains, but struggle with geospatial data. In this paper, we introduce SpaceGAN, a novel generative model for geospatial domains that learns neighbourhood structures through spatial conditioning. We propose to enhance spatial representation beyond mere spatial coordinates, by conditioning each data point on feature vectors of its spatial neighbours, thus allowing for a more flexible representation of the spatial structure. To overcome issues of training convergence, we employ a metric capturing the loss in local spatial autocorrelation between real and generated data as stopping criterion for SpaceGAN parametrization. This way, we ensure that the generator produces synthetic samples faithful to the spatial patterns observed in the input. SpaceGAN is successfully applied for data augmentation and outperforms compared to other methods of synthetic spatial data generation. Finally, we propose an ensemble learning framework for the geospatial domain, taking augmented SpaceGAN samples as training data for a set of ensemble learners. We empirically show the superiority of this approach over conventional ensemble learning approaches and rivaling spatial data augmentation methods, using synthetic and real-world prediction tasks. Our findings suggest that SpaceGAN can be used as a tool for (1) artificially inflating sparse geospatial data and (2) improving generalization of geospatial models.

Generative Adversarial Networks for Financial Trading Strategies Fine-Tuning and Combination

Systematic trading strategies are algorithmic procedures that allocate assets aiming to optimize a certain performance criterion. To obtain an edge in a highly competitive environment, the analyst needs to proper fine-tune its strategy, or discover how to combine weak signals in novel alpha creating manners. Both aspects, namely fine-tuning and combination, have been extensively researched using several methods, but emerging techniques such as Generative Adversarial Networks can have an impact into such aspects. Therefore, our work proposes the use of Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (cGANs) for trading strategies calibration and aggregation. To this purpose, we provide a full methodology on: (i) the training and selection of a cGAN for time series data; (ii) how each sample is used for strategies calibration; and (iii) how all generated samples can be used for ensemble modelling. To provide evidence that our approach is well grounded, we have designed an experiment with multiple trading strategies, encompassing 579 assets. We compared cGAN with an ensemble scheme and model validation methods, both suited for time series. Our results suggest that cGANs are a suitable alternative for strategies calibration and combination, providing outperformance when the traditional techniques fail to generate any alpha.