Gradient Boosting Decision Tree with LSTM for Investment Prediction

This paper proposes a hybrid framework combining LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) networks with LightGBM and CatBoost for stock price prediction. The framework processes time-series financial data and evaluates performance using seven models: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), vanilla LSTM, XGBoost, LightGBM, and standard Neural Networks (NNs). Key metrics, including MAE, R-squared, MSE, and RMSE, are used to establish benchmarks across different time scales. Building on these benchmarks, we develop an ensemble model that combines the strengths of sequential and tree-based approaches. Experimental results show that the proposed framework improves accuracy by 10 to 15 percent compared to individual models and reduces error during market changes. This study highlights the potential of ensemble methods for financial forecasting and provides a flexible design for integrating new machine learning techniques.

TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learning

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

Context-Aware Content Moderation for German Newspaper Comments

The increasing volume of online discussions requires advanced automatic content moderation to maintain responsible discourse. While hate speech detection on social media is well-studied, research on German-language newspaper forums remains limited. Existing studies often neglect platform-specific context, such as user history and article themes. This paper addresses this gap by developing and evaluating binary classification models for automatic content moderation in German newspaper forums, incorporating contextual information. Using LSTM, CNN, and ChatGPT-3.5 Turbo, and leveraging the One Million Posts Corpus from the Austrian newspaper Der Standard, we assess the impact of context-aware models. Results show that CNN and LSTM models benefit from contextual information and perform competitively with state-of-the-art approaches. In contrast, ChatGPT's zero-shot classification does not improve with added context and underperforms.

Dynamical ON-OFF Control with Trajectory Prediction for Multi-RIS Wireless Networks

Reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs) have demonstrated an unparalleled ability to reconfigure wireless environments by dynamically controlling the phase, amplitude, and polarization of impinging waves. However, as nearly passive reflective metasurfaces, RISs may not distinguish between desired and interference signals, which can lead to severe spectrum pollution and even affect performance negatively. In particular, in large-scale networks, the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) at the receiving node can be degraded due to excessive interference reflected from the RIS. To overcome this fundamental limitation, we propose in this paper a trajectory prediction-based dynamical control algorithm (TPC) for anticipating RIS ON-OFF states sequence, integrating a long-short-term-memory (LSTM) scheme to predict user trajectories. In particular, through a codebook-based algorithm, the RIS controller adaptively coordinates the configuration of the RIS elements to maximize the received SINR. Our simulation results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed TPC method over various system settings.

Localized Weather Prediction Using Kolmogorov-Arnold Network-Based Models and Deep RNNs

Weather forecasting is crucial for managing risks and economic planning, particularly in tropical Africa, where extreme events severely impact livelihoods. Yet, existing forecasting methods often struggle with the region's complex, non-linear weather patterns. This study benchmarks deep recurrent neural networks such as $\texttt{LSTM, GRU, BiLSTM, BiGRU}$, and Kolmogorov-Arnold-based models $(\texttt{KAN} and \texttt{TKAN})$ for daily forecasting of temperature, precipitation, and pressure in two tropical cities: Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) and Kigali (Rwanda). We further introduce two customized variants of $ \texttt{TKAN}$ that replace its original $\texttt{SiLU}$ activation function with $ \texttt{GeLU}$ and \texttt{MiSH}, respectively. Using station-level meteorological data spanning from 2010 to 2024, we evaluate all the models on standard regression metrics. $\texttt{KAN}$ achieves temperature prediction ($R^2=0.9986$ in Abidjan, $0.9998$ in Kigali, $\texttt{MSE} < 0.0014~^\circ C ^2$), while $\texttt{TKAN}$ variants minimize absolute errors for precipitation forecasting in low-rainfall regimes. The customized $\texttt{TKAN}$ models demonstrate improvements over the standard $\texttt{TKAN}$ across both datasets. Classical \texttt{RNNs} remain highly competitive for atmospheric pressure ($R^2 \approx 0.83{-}0.86$), outperforming $\texttt{KAN}$-based models in this task. These results highlight the potential of spline-based neural architectures for efficient and data-efficient forecasting.

A domain adaptation neural network for digital twin-supported fault diagnosis

Digital twins offer a promising solution to the lack of sufficient labeled data in deep learning-based fault diagnosis by generating simulated data for model training. However, discrepancies between simulation and real-world systems can lead to a significant drop in performance when models are applied in real scenarios. To address this issue, we propose a fault diagnosis framework based on Domain-Adversarial Neural Networks (DANN), which enables knowledge transfer from simulated (source domain) to real-world (target domain) data. We evaluate the proposed framework using a publicly available robotics fault diagnosis dataset, which includes 3,600 sequences generated by a digital twin model and 90 real sequences collected from physical systems. The DANN method is compared with commonly used lightweight deep learning models such as CNN, TCN, Transformer, and LSTM. Experimental results show that incorporating domain adaptation significantly improves the diagnostic performance. For example, applying DANN to a baseline CNN model improves its accuracy from 70.00% to 80.22% on real-world test data, demonstrating the effectiveness of domain adaptation in bridging the sim-to-real gap.

An Uncertainty-Aware ED-LSTM for Probabilistic Suffix Prediction

Suffix prediction of business processes forecasts the remaining sequence of events until process completion. Current approaches focus on predicting a single, most likely suffix. However, if the future course of a process is exposed to uncertainty or has high variability, the expressiveness of a single suffix prediction can be limited. To address this limitation, we propose probabilistic suffix prediction, a novel approach that approximates a probability distribution of suffixes. The proposed approach is based on an Uncertainty-Aware Encoder-Decoder LSTM (U-ED-LSTM) and a Monte Carlo (MC) suffix sampling algorithm. We capture epistemic uncertainties via MC dropout and aleatoric uncertainties as learned loss attenuation. This technical report provides a detailed evaluation of the U-ED-LSTM's predictive performance and assesses its calibration on four real-life event logs with three different hyperparameter settings. The results show that i) the U-ED-LSTM has reasonable predictive performance across various datasets, ii) aggregating probabilistic suffix predictions into mean values can outperform most likely predictions, particularly for rare prefixes or longer suffixes, and iii) the approach effectively captures uncertainties present in event logs.

Gradient Flow Matching for Learning Update Dynamics in Neural Network Training

Training deep neural networks remains computationally intensive due to the itera2 tive nature of gradient-based optimization. We propose Gradient Flow Matching (GFM), a continuous-time modeling framework that treats neural network training as a dynamical system governed by learned optimizer-aware vector fields. By leveraging conditional flow matching, GFM captures the underlying update rules of optimizers such as SGD, Adam, and RMSprop, enabling smooth extrapolation of weight trajectories toward convergence. Unlike black-box sequence models, GFM incorporates structural knowledge of gradient-based updates into the learning objective, facilitating accurate forecasting of final weights from partial training sequences. Empirically, GFM achieves forecasting accuracy that is competitive with Transformer-based models and significantly outperforms LSTM and other classical baselines. Furthermore, GFM generalizes across neural architectures and initializations, providing a unified framework for studying optimization dynamics and accelerating convergence prediction.

Multiple Descents in Deep Learning as a Sequence of Order-Chaos Transitions

We observe a novel 'multiple-descent' phenomenon during the training process of LSTM, in which the test loss goes through long cycles of up and down trend multiple times after the model is overtrained. By carrying out asymptotic stability analysis of the models, we found that the cycles in test loss are closely associated with the phase transition process between order and chaos, and the local optimal epochs are consistently at the critical transition point between the two phases. More importantly, the global optimal epoch occurs at the first transition from order to chaos, where the 'width' of the 'edge of chaos' is the widest, allowing the best exploration of better weight configurations for learning.

LPCM: Learning-based Predictive Coding for LiDAR Point Cloud Compression

Since the data volume of LiDAR point clouds is very huge, efficient compression is necessary to reduce their storage and transmission costs. However, existing learning-based compression methods do not exploit the inherent angular resolution of LiDAR and ignore the significant differences in the correlation of geometry information at different bitrates. The predictive geometry coding method in the geometry-based point cloud compression (G-PCC) standard uses the inherent angular resolution to predict the azimuth angles. However, it only models a simple linear relationship between the azimuth angles of neighboring points. Moreover, it does not optimize the quantization parameters for residuals on each coordinate axis in the spherical coordinate system. We propose a learning-based predictive coding method (LPCM) with both high-bitrate and low-bitrate coding modes. LPCM converts point clouds into predictive trees using the spherical coordinate system. In high-bitrate coding mode, we use a lightweight Long-Short-Term Memory-based predictive (LSTM-P) module that captures long-term geometry correlations between different coordinates to efficiently predict and compress the elevation angles. In low-bitrate coding mode, where geometry correlation degrades, we introduce a variational radius compression (VRC) module to directly compress the point radii. Then, we analyze why the quantization of spherical coordinates differs from that of Cartesian coordinates and propose a differential evolution (DE)-based quantization parameter selection method, which improves rate-distortion performance without increasing coding time. Experimental results on the LiDAR benchmark \textit{SemanticKITTI} and the MPEG-specified \textit{Ford} datasets show that LPCM outperforms G-PCC and other learning-based methods.