Total Variation Distance Estimation in Autoregressive Models

Modern LLM deployments use a number of implementation choices and inference optimizations (e.g., batching, custom kernels, and quantization) on top of fixed weights, so two engines serving "the same model" can produce meaningfully different distributions. We study the problem of estimating the total variation (TV) distance between two length-$n$ autoregressive distributions to additive error $\varepsilon$, under three access models. (1) Under sample access, we use $\widetilde{O}(n^2 K/\varepsilon^2)$ queries, where $K$ is the maximum support of the next-token distribution. This improves upon the $\widetilde{O}(n^3 m/\varepsilon^5)$-query estimator of Meel et al. (2025), where $m \geq K$ is the total size of the token alphabet. (2) Under logit access, we use $O(n/\varepsilon^2)$ queries, and this is tight. (3) Under noisy logit access, we smoothly interpolate between the above two guarantees: if probability values are given to relative error $σ$, we use $\widetilde{O}((n+n^2σ^2)/\varepsilon^2)$ queries. We complement our theoretical results with an empirical evaluation of our algorithms, for example measuring the distance between SGLang and vLLM serving identical weights. Our experiments highlight the robustness and practicality of estimating the total variation distance, which remains estimable where the KL divergence is infinite. Our code is available at https://github.com/XunZhiyang/llm-tv-estimation.

The Tractability Landscape of Sampling with Inexact Scores

We provide a simple and tight characterization of the types of inexact score oracle access that permit sampling with vanishing total variation bias, for a standard, well-behaved target family. Our main result shows that any weaker error than the sub-Gaussian assumption used by [YW26] rules out the tractability of unbiased sampling. This strengthens the conclusion of [CCSW26] to be algorithm-agnostic, and to hold for a wider range of error assumptions.

Separating Oblivious and Adaptive Models of Variable Selection

Sparse recovery is among the most well-studied problems in learning theory and high-dimensional statistics. In this work, we investigate the statistical and computational landscapes of sparse recovery with $\ell_\infty$ error guarantees. This variant of the problem is motivated by \emph{variable selection} tasks, where the goal is to estimate the support of a $k$-sparse signal in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Our main contribution is a provable separation between the \emph{oblivious} (``for each'') and \emph{adaptive} (``for all'') models of $\ell_\infty$ sparse recovery. We show that under an oblivious model, the optimal $\ell_\infty$ error is attainable in near-linear time with $\approx k\log d$ samples, whereas in an adaptive model, $\gtrsim k^2$ samples are necessary for any algorithm to achieve this bound. This establishes a surprising contrast with the standard $\ell_2$ setting, where $\approx k \log d$ samples suffice even for adaptive sparse recovery. We conclude with a preliminary examination of a \emph{partially-adaptive} model, where we show nontrivial variable selection guarantees are possible with $\approx k\log d$ measurements.

Spike-and-Slab Posterior Sampling in High Dimensions

Posterior sampling with the spike-and-slab prior [MB88], a popular multimodal distribution used to model uncertainty in variable selection, is considered the theoretical gold standard method for Bayesian sparse linear regression [CPS09, Roc18]. However, designing provable algorithms for performing this sampling task is notoriously challenging. Existing posterior samplers for Bayesian sparse variable selection tasks either require strong assumptions about the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) [YWJ16], only work when the measurement count grows at least linearly in the dimension [MW24], or rely on heuristic approximations to the posterior. We give the first provable algorithms for spike-and-slab posterior sampling that apply for any SNR, and use a measurement count sublinear in the problem dimension. Concretely, assume we are given a measurement matrix $\mathbf{X} \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$ and noisy observations $\mathbf{y} = \mathbf{X}\mathbf{\theta}^\star + \mathbf{\xi}$ of a signal $\mathbf{\theta}^\star$ drawn from a spike-and-slab prior $\pi$ with a Gaussian diffuse density and expected sparsity k, where $\mathbf{\xi} \sim \mathcal{N}(\mathbb{0}_n, \sigma^2\mathbf{I}_n)$. We give a polynomial-time high-accuracy sampler for the posterior $\pi(\cdot \mid \mathbf{X}, \mathbf{y})$, for any SNR $\sigma^{-1}$ > 0, as long as $n \geq k^3 \cdot \text{polylog}(d)$ and $X$ is drawn from a matrix ensemble satisfying the restricted isometry property. We further give a sampler that runs in near-linear time $\approx nd$ in the same setting, as long as $n \geq k^5 \cdot \text{polylog}(d)$. To demonstrate the flexibility of our framework, we extend our result to spike-and-slab posterior sampling with Laplace diffuse densities, achieving similar guarantees when $\sigma = O(\frac{1}{k})$ is bounded.

Fast Conditional Mixing of MCMC Algorithms for Non-log-concave Distributions

MCMC algorithms offer empirically efficient tools for sampling from a target distribution $\pi(x) \propto \exp(-V(x))$. However, on the theory side, MCMC algorithms suffer from slow mixing rate when $\pi(x)$ is non-log-concave. Our work examines this gap and shows that when Poincar\'e-style inequality holds on a subset $\mathcal{X}$ of the state space, the conditional distribution of MCMC iterates over $\mathcal{X}$ mixes fast to the true conditional distribution. This fast mixing guarantee can hold in cases when global mixing is provably slow. We formalize the statement and quantify the conditional mixing rate. We further show that conditional mixing can have interesting implications for sampling from mixtures of Gaussians, parameter estimation for Gaussian mixture models and Gibbs-sampling with well-connected local minima.