Uncovering Salience-Driven Dynamics in Consumer Confidence with Generative Social Simulation

Consumer confidence is typically modeled as a persistent macroeconomic index, yet its movements arise from households that interpret economic information through heterogeneous constraints, exposures, prior beliefs, and attention. We introduce ConsumerSim, a generative Human--Environment response framework that reconstructs Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dynamics from a microdata-calibrated synthetic population, time-stamped macroeconomic, financial, policy, and news signals, survey-like response generation, post-stratified belief expansion, and behavioral inertia alignment. Across U.S., EU27, and Japanese official CCI target series, ConsumerSim ranks first among persistence, time-series, regression, and information-augmented baselines on the reported reconstruction metrics, with clear gains around high-salience shocks. Its reconstructed signal also improves short-horizon prediction of real activity, most consistently for housing outcomes. Mechanism analyses show that CCI movements concentrate around salient events; subgroup trajectories often align in direction while differing in magnitude; and signal sensitivity varies across income, homeownership, education, and political-alignment groups. Population-expansion and ablation results indicate that representative aggregation, situational signals, persona heterogeneity, and inertia are necessary for both accuracy and diagnosis. The findings support a behavioral view of consumer confidence as an interpretable Human--Environment response process rather than a purely aggregate time series.

GUI Agents for Continual Game Generation

Generating a game is not the same as making one that can be played. Despite advances in code generation, existing approaches treat game generation as one-shot translation from prompt to artifact, leaving interaction-level failures undetected. We argue that evaluating and improving game generation requires a player, and study two roles for graphical user interface (GUI) agents in this process: (1) as an objective evaluator, for which we introduce PlaytestArena, a new evaluation environment that pairs 200 browser-based game generation tasks across eight genres with rubrics of expected in-play behaviors, adjudicated by a GUI agent that loads each build in a browser and plays it; and (2) as a subjective playtester, for which we propose Play2Code, where a game agent and a GUI agent operate in a sustained loop with shared memory, turning game generation into a dialogue between coding and playing. Our experiments show that even frontier models struggle to generate playable games directly, while Play2Code achieves a 66.8\% rubric pass-rate, improving over single-pass and agentic-coding baselines by 37.1 and 14.6 points respectively. Further analysis shows that GUI playtester feedback is more traceable than a human report, yet idiosyncratic in ways reminiscent of human testers, establishing game playtesting as a critical testbed for interactive code generation. Our project website is available at https://continual-game-generation.vercel.app/.

Learning Adaptive Reasoning Paths for Efficient Visual Reasoning

Visual reasoning models (VRMs) have recently shown strong cross-modal reasoning capabilities by integrating visual perception with language reasoning. However, they often suffer from overthinking, producing unnecessarily long reasoning chains for any tasks. We attribute this issue to \textbf{Reasoning Path Redundancy} in visual reasoning: many visual questions do not require the full reasoning process. To address this, we propose \textbf{AVR}, an adaptive visual reasoning framework that decomposes visual reasoning into three cognitive functions: visual perception, logical reasoning, and answer application. It further enables models to dynamically choose among three response formats: Full Format, Perception-Only Format, and Direct Answer. AVR is trained with FS-GRPO, an adaptation of Group Relative Policy Optimization that encourages the model to select the most efficient reasoning format while preserving correctness. Experiments on multiple vision-language benchmarks show that AVR reduces token usage by 50--90\% while maintaining overall accuracy, especially in perception-intensive tasks. These results demonstrate that adaptive visual reasoning can effectively mitigate overthinking in VRMs. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/RunRiotComeOn/AVR.