Hyperball May Not Be a Free Lunch

For scale-invariant deep networks, Hyperball-style optimizers have shown strong performance in large-scale training by fixing the norms of matrix-valued parameters and normalizing updates. However, the source of their advantage remains unclear. Starting from the angular displacement between consecutive parameter states, we derive an angular effective learning rate that accounts for the parameter-update angle, parameter norm, and update norm. We also show that the conventional norm-based measure is a special case under parameter-update orthogonality. We then decompose optimizer updates into radial and tangential components and analyze how radial updates affect one-step angular displacement. Under the training configurations considered, numerical results show that the radial component has only a limited direct effect on the angular effective learning rate. It therefore cannot explain why MuonH converges more slowly than MuonWD early in training but overtakes it later. To further isolate the underlying mechanism, we devise a heuristic experiment that modifies only the learning-rate schedule so that the dynamics of each optimizer reproduce those of the other. The results suggest that their main difference stems from the evolution of the effective step size rather than an intrinsically superior update direction induced by Hyperball. Our pretraining experiments further show that more aggressive learning-rate decay can accelerate MuonH early in training but may impair its later performance. Thus, maintaining a constant angular velocity does not eliminate the learning-rate-scheduling problem; careful scheduling remains essential to realizing the potential of Hyperball-style optimizers. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/mangocrazz/hyperball-may-not-be-a-free-lunch.

Loop the Loopies!

We present the Loopie series, consisting of two Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models: a 20B-parameter model with 2B active parameters and a 6B-parameter model with 0.6B active parameters. Looped Transformers have long faced a challenge: given an N times increase in pre-training compute, increasing the parameter count by a factor of N usually outperforms looping a model N times. Loopie addresses this challenge. Extensive ablation studies, including comparisons with a vanilla 30B-A3B model, show that Loopie substantially outperforms vanilla Transformer baselines trained with the same compute budget. With a novel post-training method, Loopie develops strong reasoning abilities and achieves frontier-level reasoning performance.

Beyond N-gram: Data-Aware X-GRAM Extraction for Efficient Embedding Parameter Scaling

Large token-indexed lookup tables provide a compute-decoupled scaling path, but their practical gains are often limited by poor parameter efficiency and rapid memory growth. We attribute these limitations to Zipfian under-training of the long tail, heterogeneous demand across layers, and "slot collapse" that produces redundant embeddings. To address this, we propose X-GRAM, a frequency-aware dynamic token-injection framework. X-GRAM employs hybrid hashing and alias mixing to compress the tail while preserving head capacity, and refines retrieved vectors via normalized SwiGLU ShortConv to extract diverse local n-gram features. These signals are integrated into attention value streams and inter-layer residuals using depth-aware gating, effectively aligning static memory with dynamic context. This design introduces a memory-centric scaling axis that decouples model capacity from FLOPs. Extensive evaluations at the 0.73B and 1.15B scales show that X-GRAM improves average accuracy by as much as 4.4 points over the vanilla backbone and 3.2 points over strong retrieval baselines, while using substantially smaller tables in the 50% configuration. Overall, by decoupling capacity from compute through efficient memory management, X-GRAM offers a scalable and practical paradigm for future memory-augmented architectures. Code aviliable in https://github.com/Longyichen/X-gram.

Universal Reasoning Model

Universal transformers (UTs) have been widely used for complex reasoning tasks such as ARC-AGI and Sudoku, yet the specific sources of their performance gains remain underexplored. In this work, we systematically analyze UTs variants and show that improvements on ARC-AGI primarily arise from the recurrent inductive bias and strong nonlinear components of Transformer, rather than from elaborate architectural designs. Motivated by this finding, we propose the Universal Reasoning Model (URM), which enhances the UT with short convolution and truncated backpropagation. Our approach substantially improves reasoning performance, achieving state-of-the-art 53.8% pass@1 on ARC-AGI 1 and 16.0% pass@1 on ARC-AGI 2. Our code is avaliable at https://github.com/UbiquantAI/URM.

Enhancing Startup Success Predictions in Venture Capital: A GraphRAG Augmented Multivariate Time Series Method

In the Venture Capital(VC) industry, predicting the success of startups is challenging due to limited financial data and the need for subjective revenue forecasts. Previous methods based on time series analysis or deep learning often fall short as they fail to incorporate crucial inter-company relationships such as competition and collaboration. Regarding the issues, we propose a novel approach using GrahphRAG augmented time series model. With GraphRAG, time series predictive methods are enhanced by integrating these vital relationships into the analysis framework, allowing for a more dynamic understanding of the startup ecosystem in venture capital. Our experimental results demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms previous models in startup success predictions. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first application work of GraphRAG.