MIRA: A Score for Conditional Distribution Accuracy and Model Comparison

We introduce Mira, a sample-based score for assessing the accuracy of a candidate conditional distribution using only joint samples from the true data-generating process. Relying on the principle that distributions coincide if they assign equal probability mass to all regions, we derive an analytic expression for the Mira statistic, whose average defines the Mira score. This formulation further allows us to compute theoretical reference values and uncertainty estimates when the candidate distribution matches the true one. This framework enables model comparison by quantifying the alignment between the conditional distribution of a candidate model and the true data generating process. Consequently, Mira enables Bayesian model comparison through direct posterior validation, bypassing the challenging evidence computation. We demonstrate its effectiveness across several toy problems and Bayesian inference tasks.

Blind Strong Gravitational Lensing Inversion: Joint Inference of Source and Lens Mass with Score-Based Models

Score-based models can serve as expressive, data-driven priors for scientific inverse problems. In strong gravitational lensing, they enable posterior inference of a background galaxy from its distorted, multiply-imaged observation. Previous work, however, assumes that the lens mass distribution (and thus the forward operator) is known. We relax this assumption by jointly inferring the source and a parametric lens-mass profile, using a sampler based on GibbsDDRM but operating in continuous time. The resulting reconstructions yield residuals consistent with the observational noise, and the marginal posteriors of the lens parameters recover true values without systematic bias. To our knowledge, this is the first successful demonstration of joint source-and-lens inference with a score-based prior.

Solving Bayesian inverse problems with diffusion priors and off-policy RL

This paper presents a practical application of Relative Trajectory Balance (RTB), a recently introduced off-policy reinforcement learning (RL) objective that can asymptotically solve Bayesian inverse problems optimally. We extend the original work by using RTB to train conditional diffusion model posteriors from pretrained unconditional priors for challenging linear and non-linear inverse problems in vision, and science. We use the objective alongside techniques such as off-policy backtracking exploration to improve training. Importantly, our results show that existing training-free diffusion posterior methods struggle to perform effective posterior inference in latent space due to inherent biases.

IRIS: A Bayesian Approach for Image Reconstruction in Radio Interferometry with expressive Score-Based priors

Inferring sky surface brightness distributions from noisy interferometric data in a principled statistical framework has been a key challenge in radio astronomy. In this work, we introduce Imaging for Radio Interferometry with Score-based models (IRIS). We use score-based models trained on optical images of galaxies as an expressive prior in combination with a Gaussian likelihood in the uv-space to infer images of protoplanetary disks from visibility data of the DSHARP survey conducted by ALMA. We demonstrate the advantages of this framework compared with traditional radio interferometry imaging algorithms, showing that it produces plausible posterior samples despite the use of a misspecified galaxy prior. Through coverage testing on simulations, we empirically evaluate the accuracy of this approach to generate calibrated posterior samples.

Tackling the Problem of Distributional Shifts: Correcting Misspecified, High-Dimensional Data-Driven Priors for Inverse Problems

Bayesian inference for inverse problems hinges critically on the choice of priors. In the absence of specific prior information, population-level distributions can serve as effective priors for parameters of interest. With the advent of machine learning, the use of data-driven population-level distributions (encoded, e.g., in a trained deep neural network) as priors is emerging as an appealing alternative to simple parametric priors in a variety of inverse problems. However, in many astrophysical applications, it is often difficult or even impossible to acquire independent and identically distributed samples from the underlying data-generating process of interest to train these models. In these cases, corrupted data or a surrogate, e.g. a simulator, is often used to produce training samples, meaning that there is a risk of obtaining misspecified priors. This, in turn, can bias the inferred posteriors in ways that are difficult to quantify, which limits the potential applicability of these models in real-world scenarios. In this work, we propose addressing this issue by iteratively updating the population-level distributions by retraining the model with posterior samples from different sets of observations and showcase the potential of this method on the problem of background image reconstruction in strong gravitational lensing when score-based models are used as data-driven priors. We show that starting from a misspecified prior distribution, the updated distribution becomes progressively closer to the underlying population-level distribution, and the resulting posterior samples exhibit reduced bias after several updates.

PQMass: Probabilistic Assessment of the Quality of Generative Models using Probability Mass Estimation

We propose a comprehensive sample-based method for assessing the quality of generative models. The proposed approach enables the estimation of the probability that two sets of samples are drawn from the same distribution, providing a statistically rigorous method for assessing the performance of a single generative model or the comparison of multiple competing models trained on the same dataset. This comparison can be conducted by dividing the space into non-overlapping regions and comparing the number of data samples in each region. The method only requires samples from the generative model and the test data. It is capable of functioning directly on high-dimensional data, obviating the need for dimensionality reduction. Significantly, the proposed method does not depend on assumptions regarding the density of the true distribution, and it does not rely on training or fitting any auxiliary models. Instead, it focuses on approximating the integral of the density (probability mass) across various sub-regions within the data space.

Improving Gradient-guided Nested Sampling for Posterior Inference

We present a performant, general-purpose gradient-guided nested sampling algorithm, ${\tt GGNS}$, combining the state of the art in differentiable programming, Hamiltonian slice sampling, clustering, mode separation, dynamic nested sampling, and parallelization. This unique combination allows ${\tt GGNS}$ to scale well with dimensionality and perform competitively on a variety of synthetic and real-world problems. We also show the potential of combining nested sampling with generative flow networks to obtain large amounts of high-quality samples from the posterior distribution. This combination leads to faster mode discovery and more accurate estimates of the partition function.

Bayesian Imaging for Radio Interferometry with Score-Based Priors

The inverse imaging task in radio interferometry is a key limiting factor to retrieving Bayesian uncertainties in radio astronomy in a computationally effective manner. We use a score-based prior derived from optical images of galaxies to recover images of protoplanetary disks from the DSHARP survey. We demonstrate that our method produces plausible posterior samples despite the misspecified galaxy prior. We show that our approach produces results which are competitive with existing radio interferometry imaging algorithms.

Echoes in the Noise: Posterior Samples of Faint Galaxy Surface Brightness Profiles with Score-Based Likelihoods and Priors

Examining the detailed structure of galaxy populations provides valuable insights into their formation and evolution mechanisms. Significant barriers to such analysis are the non-trivial noise properties of real astronomical images and the point spread function (PSF) which blurs structure. Here we present a framework which combines recent advances in score-based likelihood characterization and diffusion model priors to perform a Bayesian analysis of image deconvolution. The method, when applied to minimally processed \emph{Hubble Space Telescope} (\emph{HST}) data, recovers structures which have otherwise only become visible in next-generation \emph{James Webb Space Telescope} (\emph{JWST}) imaging.

On Diffusion Modeling for Anomaly Detection

Known for their impressive performance in generative modeling, diffusion models are attractive candidates for density-based anomaly detection. This paper investigates different variations of diffusion modeling for unsupervised and semi-supervised anomaly detection. In particular, we find that Denoising Diffusion Probability Models (DDPM) are performant on anomaly detection benchmarks yet computationally expensive. By simplifying DDPM in application to anomaly detection, we are naturally led to an alternative approach called Diffusion Time Probabilistic Model (DTPM). DTPM estimates the posterior distribution over diffusion time for a given input, enabling the identification of anomalies due to their higher posterior density at larger timesteps. We derive an analytical form for this posterior density and leverage a deep neural network to improve inference efficiency. Through empirical evaluations on the ADBench benchmark, we demonstrate that all diffusion-based anomaly detection methods perform competitively. Notably, DTPM achieves orders of magnitude faster inference time than DDPM, while outperforming it on this benchmark. These results establish diffusion-based anomaly detection as an interpretable and scalable alternative to traditional methods and recent deep-learning techniques.