Student Answer Forecasting: Transformer-Driven Answer Choice Prediction for Language Learning

Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) enhance personalized learning by predicting student answers to provide immediate and customized instruction. However, recent research has primarily focused on the correctness of the answer rather than the student's performance on specific answer choices, limiting insights into students' thought processes and potential misconceptions. To address this gap, we present MCQStudentBert, an answer forecasting model that leverages the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to integrate contextual understanding of students' answering history along with the text of the questions and answers. By predicting the specific answer choices students are likely to make, practitioners can easily extend the model to new answer choices or remove answer choices for the same multiple-choice question (MCQ) without retraining the model. In particular, we compare MLP, LSTM, BERT, and Mistral 7B architectures to generate embeddings from students' past interactions, which are then incorporated into a finetuned BERT's answer-forecasting mechanism. We apply our pipeline to a dataset of language learning MCQ, gathered from an ITS with over 10,000 students to explore the predictive accuracy of MCQStudentBert, which incorporates student interaction patterns, in comparison to correct answer prediction and traditional mastery-learning feature-based approaches. This work opens the door to more personalized content, modularization, and granular support.

InterpretCC: Conditional Computation for Inherently Interpretable Neural Networks

Real-world interpretability for neural networks is a tradeoff between three concerns: 1) it requires humans to trust the explanation approximation (e.g. post-hoc approaches), 2) it compromises the understandability of the explanation (e.g. automatically identified feature masks), and 3) it compromises the model performance (e.g. decision trees). These shortcomings are unacceptable for human-facing domains, like education, healthcare, or natural language, which require trustworthy explanations, actionable interpretations, and accurate predictions. In this work, we present InterpretCC (interpretable conditional computation), a family of interpretable-by-design neural networks that guarantee human-centric interpretability while maintaining comparable performance to state-of-the-art models by adaptively and sparsely activating features before prediction. We extend this idea into an interpretable mixture-of-experts model, that allows humans to specify topics of interest, discretely separates the feature space for each data point into topical subnetworks, and adaptively and sparsely activates these topical subnetworks. We demonstrate variations of the InterpretCC architecture for text and tabular data across several real-world benchmarks: six online education courses, news classification, breast cancer diagnosis, and review sentiment.

MEDITRON-70B: Scaling Medical Pretraining for Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) can potentially democratize access to medical knowledge. While many efforts have been made to harness and improve LLMs' medical knowledge and reasoning capacities, the resulting models are either closed-source (e.g., PaLM, GPT-4) or limited in scale (<= 13B parameters), which restricts their abilities. In this work, we improve access to large-scale medical LLMs by releasing MEDITRON: a suite of open-source LLMs with 7B and 70B parameters adapted to the medical domain. MEDITRON builds on Llama-2 (through our adaptation of Nvidia's Megatron-LM distributed trainer), and extends pretraining on a comprehensively curated medical corpus, including selected PubMed articles, abstracts, and internationally-recognized medical guidelines. Evaluations using four major medical benchmarks show significant performance gains over several state-of-the-art baselines before and after task-specific finetuning. Overall, MEDITRON achieves a 6% absolute performance gain over the best public baseline in its parameter class and 3% over the strongest baseline we finetuned from Llama-2. Compared to closed-source LLMs, MEDITRON-70B outperforms GPT-3.5 and Med-PaLM and is within 5% of GPT-4 and 10% of Med-PaLM-2. We release our code for curating the medical pretraining corpus and the MEDITRON model weights to drive open-source development of more capable medical LLMs.

Unraveling Downstream Gender Bias from Large Language Models: A Study on AI Educational Writing Assistance

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized in educational tasks such as providing writing suggestions to students. Despite their potential, LLMs are known to harbor inherent biases which may negatively impact learners. Previous studies have investigated bias in models and data representations separately, neglecting the potential impact of LLM bias on human writing. In this paper, we investigate how bias transfers through an AI writing support pipeline. We conduct a large-scale user study with 231 students writing business case peer reviews in German. Students are divided into five groups with different levels of writing support: one classroom group with feature-based suggestions and four groups recruited from Prolific -- a control group with no assistance, two groups with suggestions from fine-tuned GPT-2 and GPT-3 models, and one group with suggestions from pre-trained GPT-3.5. Using GenBit gender bias analysis, Word Embedding Association Tests (WEAT), and Sentence Embedding Association Test (SEAT) we evaluate the gender bias at various stages of the pipeline: in model embeddings, in suggestions generated by the models, and in reviews written by students. Our results demonstrate that there is no significant difference in gender bias between the resulting peer reviews of groups with and without LLM suggestions. Our research is therefore optimistic about the use of AI writing support in the classroom, showcasing a context where bias in LLMs does not transfer to students' responses.

MultiModN- Multimodal, Multi-Task, Interpretable Modular Networks

Predicting multiple real-world tasks in a single model often requires a particularly diverse feature space. Multimodal (MM) models aim to extract the synergistic predictive potential of multiple data types to create a shared feature space with aligned semantic meaning across inputs of drastically varying sizes (i.e. images, text, sound). Most current MM architectures fuse these representations in parallel, which not only limits their interpretability but also creates a dependency on modality availability. We present MultiModN, a multimodal, modular network that fuses latent representations in a sequence of any number, combination, or type of modality while providing granular real-time predictive feedback on any number or combination of predictive tasks. MultiModN's composable pipeline is interpretable-by-design, as well as innately multi-task and robust to the fundamental issue of biased missingness. We perform four experiments on several benchmark MM datasets across 10 real-world tasks (predicting medical diagnoses, academic performance, and weather), and show that MultiModN's sequential MM fusion does not compromise performance compared with a baseline of parallel fusion. By simulating the challenging bias of missing not-at-random (MNAR), this work shows that, contrary to MultiModN, parallel fusion baselines erroneously learn MNAR and suffer catastrophic failure when faced with different patterns of MNAR at inference. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first inherently MNAR-resistant approach to MM modeling. In conclusion, MultiModN provides granular insights, robustness, and flexibility without compromising performance.

The future of human-centric eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is not post-hoc explanations

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) plays a crucial role in enabling human understanding and trust in deep learning systems, often defined as determining which features are most important to a model's prediction. As models get larger, more ubiquitous, and pervasive in aspects of daily life, explainability is necessary to avoid or minimize adverse effects of model mistakes. Unfortunately, current approaches in human-centric XAI (e.g. predictive tasks in healthcare, education, or personalized ads) tend to rely on a single explainer. This is a particularly concerning trend when considering that recent work has identified systematic disagreement in explainability methods when applied to the same points and underlying black-box models. In this paper, we therefore present a call for action to address the limitations of current state-of-the-art explainers. We propose to shift from post-hoc explainability to designing interpretable neural network architectures; moving away from approximation techniques in human-centric and high impact applications. We identify five needs of human-centric XAI (real-time, accurate, actionable, human-interpretable, and consistent) and propose two schemes for interpretable-by-design neural network workflows (adaptive routing for interpretable conditional computation and diagnostic benchmarks for iterative model learning). We postulate that the future of human-centric XAI is neither in explaining black-boxes nor in reverting to traditional, interpretable models, but in neural networks that are intrinsically interpretable.

Trusting the Explainers: Teacher Validation of Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Course Design

Deep learning models for learning analytics have become increasingly popular over the last few years; however, these approaches are still not widely adopted in real-world settings, likely due to a lack of trust and transparency. In this paper, we tackle this issue by implementing explainable AI methods for black-box neural networks. This work focuses on the context of online and blended learning and the use case of student success prediction models. We use a pairwise study design, enabling us to investigate controlled differences between pairs of courses. Our analyses cover five course pairs that differ in one educationally relevant aspect and two popular instance-based explainable AI methods (LIME and SHAP). We quantitatively compare the distances between the explanations across courses and methods. We then validate the explanations of LIME and SHAP with 26 semi-structured interviews of university-level educators regarding which features they believe contribute most to student success, which explanations they trust most, and how they could transform these insights into actionable course design decisions. Our results show that quantitatively, explainers significantly disagree with each other about what is important, and qualitatively, experts themselves do not agree on which explanations are most trustworthy. All code, extended results, and the interview protocol are provided at https://github.com/epfl-ml4ed/trusting-explainers.

Ripple: Concept-Based Interpretation for Raw Time Series Models in Education

Time series is the most prevalent form of input data for educational prediction tasks. The vast majority of research using time series data focuses on hand-crafted features, designed by experts for predictive performance and interpretability. However, extracting these features is labor-intensive for humans and computers. In this paper, we propose an approach that utilizes irregular multivariate time series modeling with graph neural networks to achieve comparable or better accuracy with raw time series clickstreams in comparison to hand-crafted features. Furthermore, we extend concept activation vectors for interpretability in raw time series models. We analyze these advances in the education domain, addressing the task of early student performance prediction for downstream targeted interventions and instructional support. Our experimental analysis on 23 MOOCs with millions of combined interactions over six behavioral dimensions show that models designed with our approach can (i) beat state-of-the-art educational time series baselines with no feature extraction and (ii) provide interpretable insights for personalized interventions. Source code: https://github.com/epfl-ml4ed/ripple/.

Bias at a Second Glance: A Deep Dive into Bias for German Educational Peer-Review Data Modeling

Natural Language Processing (NLP) has become increasingly utilized to provide adaptivity in educational applications. However, recent research has highlighted a variety of biases in pre-trained language models. While existing studies investigate bias in different domains, they are limited in addressing fine-grained analysis on educational and multilingual corpora. In this work, we analyze bias across text and through multiple architectures on a corpus of 9,165 German peer-reviews collected from university students over five years. Notably, our corpus includes labels such as helpfulness, quality, and critical aspect ratings from the peer-review recipient as well as demographic attributes. We conduct a Word Embedding Association Test (WEAT) analysis on (1) our collected corpus in connection with the clustered labels, (2) the most common pre-trained German language models (T5, BERT, and GPT-2) and GloVe embeddings, and (3) the language models after fine-tuning on our collected data-set. In contrast to our initial expectations, we found that our collected corpus does not reveal many biases in the co-occurrence analysis or in the GloVe embeddings. However, the pre-trained German language models find substantial conceptual, racial, and gender bias and have significant changes in bias across conceptual and racial axes during fine-tuning on the peer-review data. With our research, we aim to contribute to the fourth UN sustainability goal (quality education) with a novel dataset, an understanding of biases in natural language education data, and the potential harms of not counteracting biases in language models for educational tasks.

Evaluating the Explainers: Black-Box Explainable Machine Learning for Student Success Prediction in MOOCs

Neural networks are ubiquitous in applied machine learning for education. Their pervasive success in predictive performance comes alongside a severe weakness, the lack of explainability of their decisions, especially relevant in human-centric fields. We implement five state-of-the-art methodologies for explaining black-box machine learning models (LIME, PermutationSHAP, KernelSHAP, DiCE, CEM) and examine the strengths of each approach on the downstream task of student performance prediction for five massive open online courses. Our experiments demonstrate that the families of explainers do not agree with each other on feature importance for the same Bidirectional LSTM models with the same representative set of students. We use Principal Component Analysis, Jensen-Shannon distance, and Spearman's rank-order correlation to quantitatively cross-examine explanations across methods and courses. Furthermore, we validate explainer performance across curriculum-based prerequisite relationships. Our results come to the concerning conclusion that the choice of explainer is an important decision and is in fact paramount to the interpretation of the predictive results, even more so than the course the model is trained on. Source code and models are released at http://github.com/epfl-ml4ed/evaluating-explainers.