When Data Is Scarce: Scaling Sparse Language Models with Repeated Training

Scaling laws for dense LLMs under infinite data are well explored, but how sparsity interacts with limited data is not. In this work, we study sparse training in data-constrained regimes where limited unique tokens require multi-epoch training. Our experiments span models up to 1.92B parameters in the fitting set, sparsity up to 93.75%, unique data budgets up to 2.6B tokens, and total training tokens up to 41.6B over 16 epochs; we further validate extrapolation on held-out dense-equivalent models up to 7.68B parameters. We find that: 1. Sparse scaling in data-limited settings: We introduce a scaling law that models loss as a function of active parameters, unique tokens, data repetition, and sparsity, accurately predicting performance across compute and data budgets. 2. Delayed data saturation: sparse training postpones diminishing returns from repeated data, making multi-epoch training more effective. 3. Resource trade-offs: With fixed data, loss-optimal sparsity is moderate ~ 50%, while compute-optimal sparsity is higher and grows with data scale. Overall, sparsity is not just a tool for efficiency, but a mechanism for improving scaling trade-offs under data scarcity. Our code is available at: https://github.com/boqian333/sparse-dc-scaling.

Memory-Efficient LLM Training with Dynamic Sparsity: From Stability to Practical Scaling

Dynamic Sparse Training (DST) offers a promising paradigm for improving the training and inference efficiency of deep neural networks; however, we find that in large language model training, DST can suffer from optimization instability, manifested as loss spikes after topology updates. In this work, we show that the naive use of standard Adam-based optimizers leads to a cold-start issue for newly regrown parameters, resulting in excessively large updates and disrupted training dynamics. To address this issue, we propose Sparse Memory-Efficient Training (SMET), which stabilizes DST with optimizer warm-up and improves training progress through density-aware learning-rate scaling. SMET further reduces memory consumption by storing gradients and optimizer states only for active parameters. We provide a theoretical analysis of the update behaviors under SMET, showing improved optimization stability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SMET enables stable, scalable, and memory-efficient sparse pre-training of LLMs, paving the way for sparse training as a practical alternative to dense training. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/QiaoXiao7282/SMET.

Can AI Weather Models Predict Beyond Two Weeks? A Quantitative Benchmark and Analysis of Long Rollouts

While AI weather models excel at short-to-medium range forecasts (up to 15 days), they frequently suffer from ill-defined "instabilities" when rolled out over longer horizons. This work addresses the lack of a formal taxonomy by categorizing these failures into three distinct regimes: blow-up, drift, and loss of seasonality, through year-long rollouts of nine state-of-the-art AI weather models. Our analysis reveals that stability hinges on the treatment of small spatio-temporal scales: unstable models amplify high-frequency energy, while stable models act as denoisers when noise is added to their inputs. Far from reducing these models to mere stochastic parrots, our findings highlight that stable models generate unique weather trajectories, conditioned on the initial state. We verify our findings through ablation studies on architectural design choices, conducted using state-of-the-art Vision Transformer (ViT) AI weather model architectures.

Confounder Detection via Treatment Intent: A New Observational Study Design

Understanding the effects of interventions is central to scientific progress, with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in many applied fields. However, RCTs are costly, time-consuming, and often constrained by ethical or practical limitations, motivating the need for causal methods able to draw conclusions from observational data. While such data is collected at ever larger scale, making its use for causal inference is often hindered by the fact that not all variables affecting treatment allocation and the outcome are observed: an issue known as unobserved confounding. In this paper, we introduce a new study design called confounder detection via treatment intent. The idea is to query a human expert who makes treatment decisions, and ask them to compare pairs of units proposed by a principled matching strategy, with the goal of eliciting unobserved variables that explain why treatment decisions differ. We provide a theoretical basis for such a procedure, ascertaining conditions under which such a study design may elicit unobserved confounders. Building on this newly established foundations, we study treatment effects of interventions in the intensive care unit (ICU). First, we show empirical evidence strongly indicating that electronic health records (EHRs) collected in ICUs are subject to unobserved confounding. By using clinical text notes as a proxy for physicians' knowledge and leveraging natural language processing, we provide a proof of concept for our methodology in a semi-synthetic environment with a known ground truth.

Large Language Model Selection with Limited Annotations

Choosing a Large Language Model (LLM) for a given task requires comparing many strong candidates, yet standard evaluation relies on costly annotations over fixed evaluation sets. To address this challenge, we develop SELECT-LLM, the first framework for active model selection of LLMs. SELECT-LLM aims to find a small set of queries whose annotations are most informative for identifying the best LLM for a given task. To this end, we introduce a query selection rule based on expected information gain, computed from pairwise similarities between candidate model outputs. Because this rule only uses generated model responses, SELECT-LLM can be applied across candidate models without assumptions about their architecture or access to model weights. This makes it suitable for both open-weight and black-box LLMs. We evaluate SELECT-LLM across 23 datasets, 156 evaluated models, diverse task families, and multiple text evaluation metrics. Across all experiments, SELECT-LLM improves over the strongest baseline in every setting, with annotation cost reductions up to 81.8% for best model selection and up to 84.78% for near-best model selection.

Grid Games: The Power of Multiple Grids for Quantizing Large Language Models

A major recent advance in quantization is given by microscaled 4-bit formats such as NVFP4 and MXFP4, quantizing values into small groups sharing a scale, assuming a fixed floating-point grid. In this paper, we study the following natural extension: assume that, for each group of values, we are free to select the "better" among two or more 4-bit grids marked by one or more bits in the scale value. We formalize the power-of-two-grids (PO2) problem, and provide theoretical results showing that practical small-group formats such as MXFP or NVFP can benefit significantly from PO2 grids, while the advantage vanishes for very large groups. On the practical side, we instantiate several grid families, including 1) PO2(NF4), which pairs the standard NF4 normal grid with a learned grid, 2) MPO2, a grid pair that is fully learned over real weights and activations, 3) PO2(Split87), an explicit-zero asymmetric grid and 4) SFP4, a TensorCore-implementable triple which pairs NVFP4 with two shifted variants. Results for post-training quantization of standard open models and pre-training of Llama-like models show that adaptive grids consistently improve accuracy vs single-grid FP4 under both weight-only and weight+activation. Source code is available at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/GridGames.

Resilient AI Supercomputer Networking using MRC and SRv6

Tail latency dominates the performance of synchronous pretraining jobs when running at very large scales. We describe a three-pronged approach: (1) a new RDMA-based transport protocol, MRC, sprays across many paths and actively load-balances between them, eliminating the issue of flow collisions (2) the use of multi-plane Clos topologies to get the benefits of high switch radix and redundancy, allowing training clusters well over 100K GPUs to be built as two-tier topologies while increasing physical redundancy, and (3) the use of static source-routing using SRv6 to allow MRC the freedom to bypass failures by itself. We describe our experiences running MRC and static SRv6 routing in production in OpenAI and Microsoft's largest training clusters, where it has been used to train the latest frontier models. We demonstrate how MRC allows AI training jobs to ride out many network failures that previously would have interrupted training.

SFT-then-RL Outperforms Mixed-Policy Methods for LLM Reasoning

Recent mixed-policy optimization methods for LLM reasoning that interleave or blend supervised and reinforcement learning signals report improvements over the standard SFT-then-RL pipeline. We show that numerous recently published research papers rely on a faulty baseline caused by two distinct bugs: a CPU-offloaded optimizer bug in DeepSpeed that silently drops intermediate micro-batches during gradient accumulation (affecting multiple downstream frameworks including TRL, OpenRLHF and Llama-Factory), and a loss aggregation bug in OpenRLHF that incorrectly weights per-mini-batch losses. Together they suppress SFT performance, with the optimizer bug accounting for most of the gap and the loss aggregation bug contributing a smaller additional effect. Once corrected, the standard SFT-then-RL pipeline surpasses every published mixed-policy method we evaluate by +3.8 points on math benchmarks with Qwen2.5-Math-7B and by +22.2 points with Llama-3.1-8B. Even a truncated variant with just 50 RL steps outperforms mixed-policy methods on math benchmarks while using fewer FLOPs.

Process Reward Agents for Steering Knowledge-Intensive Reasoning

Reasoning in knowledge-intensive domains remains challenging as intermediate steps are often not locally verifiable: unlike math or code, evaluating step correctness may require synthesizing clues across large external knowledge sources. As a result, subtle errors can propagate through reasoning traces, potentially never to be detected. Prior work has proposed process reward models (PRMs), including retrieval-augmented variants, but these methods operate post hoc, scoring completed trajectories, which prevents their integration into dynamic inference procedures. Here, we introduce Process Reward Agents (PRA), a test-time method for providing domain-grounded, online, step-wise rewards to a frozen policy. In contrast to prior retrieval-augmented PRMs, PRA enables search-based decoding to rank and prune candidate trajectories at every generation step. Experiments on multiple medical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that PRA consistently outperforms strong baselines, achieving 80.8% accuracy on MedQA with Qwen3-4B, a new state of the art at the 4B scale. Importantly, PRA generalizes to unseen frozen policy models ranging from 0.5B to 8B parameters, improving their accuracy by up to 25.7% without any policy model updates. More broadly, PRA suggests a paradigm in which frozen reasoners are decoupled from domain-specific reward modules, allowing the deployment of new backbones in complex domains without retraining.

Scaling Laws of Global Weather Models

Data-driven models are revolutionizing weather forecasting. To optimize training efficiency and model performance, this paper analyzes empirical scaling laws within this domain. We investigate the relationship between model performance (validation loss) and three key factors: model size ($N$), dataset size ($D$), and compute budget ($C$). Across a range of models, we find that Aurora exhibits the strongest data-scaling behavior: increasing the training dataset by 10x reduces validation loss by up to 3.2x. GraphCast demonstrates the highest parameter efficiency, yet suffers from limited hardware utilization. Our compute-optimal analysis indicates that, under fixed compute budgets, allocating resources to longer training durations yields greater performance gains than increasing model size. Furthermore, we analyze model shape and uncover scaling behaviors that differ fundamentally from those observed in language models: weather forecasting models consistently favor increased width over depth. These findings suggest that future weather models should prioritize wider architectures and larger effective training datasets to maximize predictive performance.