Interpretable Survival Analysis for Heart Failure Risk Prediction

Survival analysis, or time-to-event analysis, is an important and widespread problem in healthcare research. Medical research has traditionally relied on Cox models for survival analysis, due to their simplicity and interpretability. Cox models assume a log-linear hazard function as well as proportional hazards over time, and can perform poorly when these assumptions fail. Newer survival models based on machine learning avoid these assumptions and offer improved accuracy, yet sometimes at the expense of model interpretability, which is vital for clinical use. We propose a novel survival analysis pipeline that is both interpretable and competitive with state-of-the-art survival models. Specifically, we use an improved version of survival stacking to transform a survival analysis problem to a classification problem, ControlBurn to perform feature selection, and Explainable Boosting Machines to generate interpretable predictions. To evaluate our pipeline, we predict risk of heart failure using a large-scale EHR database. Our pipeline achieves state-of-the-art performance and provides interesting and novel insights about risk factors for heart failure.

Metadata-Conditioned Generative Models to Synthesize Anatomically-Plausible 3D Brain MRIs

Generative AI models hold great potential in creating synthetic brain MRIs that advance neuroimaging studies by, for example, enriching data diversity. However, the mainstay of AI research only focuses on optimizing the visual quality (such as signal-to-noise ratio) of the synthetic MRIs while lacking insights into their relevance to neuroscience. To gain these insights with respect to T1-weighted MRIs, we first propose a new generative model, BrainSynth, to synthesize metadata-conditioned (e.g., age- and sex-specific) MRIs that achieve state-of-the-art visual quality. We then extend our evaluation with a novel procedure to quantify anatomical plausibility, i.e., how well the synthetic MRIs capture macrostructural properties of brain regions, and how accurately they encode the effects of age and sex. Results indicate that more than half of the brain regions in our synthetic MRIs are anatomically accurate, i.e., with a small effect size between real and synthetic MRIs. Moreover, the anatomical plausibility varies across cortical regions according to their geometric complexity. As is, our synthetic MRIs can significantly improve the training of a Convolutional Neural Network to identify accelerated aging effects in an independent study. These results highlight the opportunities of using generative AI to aid neuroimaging research and point to areas for further improvement.