Counterfactual Learning-to-Rank for Additive Metrics and Deep Models

Implicit feedback (e.g., clicks, dwell times) is an attractive source of training data for Learning-to-Rank, but it inevitably suffers from biases such as position bias. It was recently shown how counterfactual inference techniques can provide a rigorous approach for handling these biases, but existing methods are restricted to the special case of optimizing average rank for linear ranking functions. In this work, we generalize the counterfactual learning-to-rank approach to a broad class of additive rank metrics -- like Discounted Cumulative Gain (DCG) and Precision@k -- as well as non-linear deep network models. Focusing on DCG, this conceptual generalization gives rise to two new learning methods that both directly optimize an unbiased estimate of DCG despite the bias in the implicit feedback data. The first, SVM PropDCG, generalizes the Propensity Ranking SVM (SVM PropRank), and we show how the resulting optimization problem can be addressed via the Convex Concave Procedure (CCP). The second, Deep PropDCG, further generalizes the counterfactual learning-to-rank approach to deep networks as non-linear ranking functions. In addition to the theoretical support, we empirically find that SVM PropDCG significantly outperforms SVM PropRank in terms of DCG, and that it is robust to varying severity of presentation bias, noise, and propensity-model misspecification. Moreover, the ability to train non-linear ranking functions via Deep PropDCG further improves DCG.

Consistent Position Bias Estimation without Online Interventions for Learning-to-Rank

Presentation bias is one of the key challenges when learning from implicit feedback in search engines, as it confounds the relevance signal with uninformative signals due to position in the ranking, saliency, and other presentation factors. While it was recently shown how counterfactual learning-to-rank (LTR) approaches \cite{Joachims/etal/17a} can provably overcome presentation bias if observation propensities are known, it remains to show how to accurately estimate these propensities. In this paper, we propose the first method for producing consistent propensity estimates without manual relevance judgments, disruptive interventions, or restrictive relevance modeling assumptions. We merely require that we have implicit feedback data from multiple different ranking functions. Furthermore, we argue that our estimation technique applies to an extended class of Contextual Position-Based Propensity Models, where propensities not only depend on position but also on observable features of the query and document. Initial simulation studies confirm that the approach is scalable, accurate, and robust.

Effective Evaluation using Logged Bandit Feedback from Multiple Loggers

Accurately evaluating new policies (e.g. ad-placement models, ranking functions, recommendation functions) is one of the key prerequisites for improving interactive systems. While the conventional approach to evaluation relies on online A/B tests, recent work has shown that counterfactual estimators can provide an inexpensive and fast alternative, since they can be applied offline using log data that was collected from a different policy fielded in the past. In this paper, we address the question of how to estimate the performance of a new target policy when we have log data from multiple historic policies. This question is of great relevance in practice, since policies get updated frequently in most online systems. We show that naively combining data from multiple logging policies can be highly suboptimal. In particular, we find that the standard Inverse Propensity Score (IPS) estimator suffers especially when logging and target policies diverge -- to a point where throwing away data improves the variance of the estimator. We therefore propose two alternative estimators which we characterize theoretically and compare experimentally. We find that the new estimators can provide substantially improved estimation accuracy.

Large-scale Validation of Counterfactual Learning Methods: A Test-Bed

The ability to perform effective off-policy learning would revolutionize the process of building better interactive systems, such as search engines and recommendation systems for e-commerce, computational advertising and news. Recent approaches for off-policy evaluation and learning in these settings appear promising. With this paper, we provide real-world data and a standardized test-bed to systematically investigate these algorithms using data from display advertising. In particular, we consider the problem of filling a banner ad with an aggregate of multiple products the user may want to purchase. This paper presents our test-bed, the sanity checks we ran to ensure its validity, and shows results comparing state-of-the-art off-policy learning methods like doubly robust optimization, POEM, and reductions to supervised learning using regression baselines. Our results show experimental evidence that recent off-policy learning methods can improve upon state-of-the-art supervised learning techniques on a large-scale real-world data set.

Unbiased Learning-to-Rank with Biased Feedback

Implicit feedback (e.g., clicks, dwell times, etc.) is an abundant source of data in human-interactive systems. While implicit feedback has many advantages (e.g., it is inexpensive to collect, user centric, and timely), its inherent biases are a key obstacle to its effective use. For example, position bias in search rankings strongly influences how many clicks a result receives, so that directly using click data as a training signal in Learning-to-Rank (LTR) methods yields sub-optimal results. To overcome this bias problem, we present a counterfactual inference framework that provides the theoretical basis for unbiased LTR via Empirical Risk Minimization despite biased data. Using this framework, we derive a Propensity-Weighted Ranking SVM for discriminative learning from implicit feedback, where click models take the role of the propensity estimator. In contrast to most conventional approaches to de-bias the data using click models, this allows training of ranking functions even in settings where queries do not repeat. Beyond the theoretical support, we show empirically that the proposed learning method is highly effective in dealing with biases, that it is robust to noise and propensity model misspecification, and that it scales efficiently. We also demonstrate the real-world applicability of our approach on an operational search engine, where it substantially improves retrieval performance.

Unbounded Human Learning: Optimal Scheduling for Spaced Repetition

In the study of human learning, there is broad evidence that our ability to retain information improves with repeated exposure and decays with delay since last exposure. This plays a crucial role in the design of educational software, leading to a trade-off between teaching new material and reviewing what has already been taught. A common way to balance this trade-off is spaced repetition, which uses periodic review of content to improve long-term retention. Though spaced repetition is widely used in practice, e.g., in electronic flashcard software, there is little formal understanding of the design of these systems. Our paper addresses this gap in three ways. First, we mine log data from spaced repetition software to establish the functional dependence of retention on reinforcement and delay. Second, we use this memory model to develop a stochastic model for spaced repetition systems. We propose a queueing network model of the Leitner system for reviewing flashcards, along with a heuristic approximation that admits a tractable optimization problem for review scheduling. Finally, we empirically evaluate our queueing model through a Mechanical Turk experiment, verifying a key qualitative prediction of our model: the existence of a sharp phase transition in learning outcomes upon increasing the rate of new item introductions.

Recommendations as Treatments: Debiasing Learning and Evaluation

Most data for evaluating and training recommender systems is subject to selection biases, either through self-selection by the users or through the actions of the recommendation system itself. In this paper, we provide a principled approach to handling selection biases, adapting models and estimation techniques from causal inference. The approach leads to unbiased performance estimators despite biased data, and to a matrix factorization method that provides substantially improved prediction performance on real-world data. We theoretically and empirically characterize the robustness of the approach, finding that it is highly practical and scalable.

Unbiased Comparative Evaluation of Ranking Functions

Eliciting relevance judgments for ranking evaluation is labor-intensive and costly, motivating careful selection of which documents to judge. Unlike traditional approaches that make this selection deterministically, probabilistic sampling has shown intriguing promise since it enables the design of estimators that are provably unbiased even when reusing data with missing judgments. In this paper, we first unify and extend these sampling approaches by viewing the evaluation problem as a Monte Carlo estimation task that applies to a large number of common IR metrics. Drawing on the theoretical clarity that this view offers, we tackle three practical evaluation scenarios: comparing two systems, comparing $k$ systems against a baseline, and ranking $k$ systems. For each scenario, we derive an estimator and a variance-optimizing sampling distribution while retaining the strengths of sampling-based evaluation, including unbiasedness, reusability despite missing data, and ease of use in practice. In addition to the theoretical contribution, we empirically evaluate our methods against previously used sampling heuristics and find that they generally cut the number of required relevance judgments at least in half.

Latent Skill Embedding for Personalized Lesson Sequence Recommendation

Students in online courses generate large amounts of data that can be used to personalize the learning process and improve quality of education. In this paper, we present the Latent Skill Embedding (LSE), a probabilistic model of students and educational content that can be used to recommend personalized sequences of lessons with the goal of helping students prepare for specific assessments. Akin to collaborative filtering for recommender systems, the algorithm does not require students or content to be described by features, but it learns a representation using access traces. We formulate this problem as a regularized maximum-likelihood embedding of students, lessons, and assessments from historical student-content interactions. An empirical evaluation on large-scale data from Knewton, an adaptive learning technology company, shows that this approach predicts assessment results competitively with benchmark models and is able to discriminate between lesson sequences that lead to mastery and failure.

Using Shortlists to Support Decision Making and Improve Recommender System Performance

In this paper, we study shortlists as an interface component for recommender systems with the dual goal of supporting the user's decision process, as well as improving implicit feedback elicitation for increased recommendation quality. A shortlist is a temporary list of candidates that the user is currently considering, e.g., a list of a few movies the user is currently considering for viewing. From a cognitive perspective, shortlists serve as digital short-term memory where users can off-load the items under consideration -- thereby decreasing their cognitive load. From a machine learning perspective, adding items to the shortlist generates a new implicit feedback signal as a by-product of exploration and decision making which can improve recommendation quality. Shortlisting therefore provides additional data for training recommendation systems without the increases in cognitive load that requesting explicit feedback would incur. We perform an user study with a movie recommendation setup to compare interfaces that offer shortlist support with those that do not. From the user studies we conclude: (i) users make better decisions with a shortlist; (ii) users prefer an interface with shortlist support; and (iii) the additional implicit feedback from sessions with a shortlist improves the quality of recommendations by nearly a factor of two.