Can GPT-4 Replicate Empirical Software Engineering Research?

Empirical software engineering research on production systems has brought forth a better understanding of the software engineering process for practitioners and researchers alike. However, only a small subset of production systems is studied, limiting the impact of this research. While software engineering practitioners benefit from replicating research on their own data, this poses its own set of challenges, since performing replications requires a deep understanding of research methodologies and subtle nuances in software engineering data. Given that large language models (LLMs), such as GPT-4, show promise in tackling both software engineering- and science-related tasks, these models could help democratize empirical software engineering research. In this paper, we examine LLMs' abilities to perform replications of empirical software engineering research on new data. We specifically study their ability to surface assumptions made in empirical software engineering research methodologies, as well as their ability to plan and generate code for analysis pipelines on seven empirical software engineering papers. We perform a user study with 14 participants with software engineering research expertise, who evaluate GPT-4-generated assumptions and analysis plans (i.e., a list of module specifications) from the papers. We find that GPT-4 is able to surface correct assumptions, but struggle to generate ones that reflect common knowledge about software engineering data. In a manual analysis of the generated code, we find that the GPT-4-generated code contains the correct high-level logic, given a subset of the methodology. However, the code contains many small implementation-level errors, reflecting a lack of software engineering knowledge. Our findings have implications for leveraging LLMs for software engineering research as well as practitioner data scientists in software teams.

Recommending Root-Cause and Mitigation Steps for Cloud Incidents using Large Language Models

Incident management for cloud services is a complex process involving several steps and has a huge impact on both service health and developer productivity. On-call engineers require significant amount of domain knowledge and manual effort for root causing and mitigation of production incidents. Recent advances in artificial intelligence has resulted in state-of-the-art large language models like GPT-3.x (both GPT-3.0 and GPT-3.5), which have been used to solve a variety of problems ranging from question answering to text summarization. In this work, we do the first large-scale study to evaluate the effectiveness of these models for helping engineers root cause and mitigate production incidents. We do a rigorous study at Microsoft, on more than 40,000 incidents and compare several large language models in zero-shot, fine-tuned and multi-task setting using semantic and lexical metrics. Lastly, our human evaluation with actual incident owners show the efficacy and future potential of using artificial intelligence for resolving cloud incidents.

Neural Knowledge Extraction From Cloud Service Incidents

In the last decade, two paradigm shifts have reshaped the software industry - the move from boxed products to services and the widespread adoption of cloud computing. This has had a huge impact on the software development life cycle and the DevOps processes. Particularly, incident management has become critical for developing and operating large-scale services. Incidents are created to ensure timely communication of service issues and, also, their resolution. Prior work on incident management has been heavily focused on the challenges with incident triaging and de-duplication. In this work, we address the fundamental problem of structured knowledge extraction from service incidents. We have built SoftNER, a framework for unsupervised knowledge extraction from service incidents. We frame the knowledge extraction problem as a Named-entity Recognition task for extracting factual information. SoftNER leverages structural patterns like key,value pairs and tables for bootstrapping the training data. Further, we build a novel multi-task learning based BiLSTM-CRF model which leverages not just the semantic context but also the data-types for named-entity extraction. We have deployed SoftNER at Microsoft, a major cloud service provider and have evaluated it on more than 2 months of cloud incidents. We show that the unsupervised machine learning based approach has a high precision of 0.96. Our multi-task learning based deep learning model also outperforms the state of the art NER models. Lastly, using the knowledge extracted by SoftNER we are able to build significantly more accurate models for important downstream tasks like incident triaging.