Assessing the Robustness of Climate Foundation Models under No-Analog Distribution Shifts

The accelerating pace of climate change introduces profound non-stationarities that challenge the ability of Machine Learning based climate emulators to generalize beyond their training distributions. While these emulators offer computationally efficient alternatives to traditional Earth System Models, their reliability remains a potential bottleneck under "no-analog" future climate states, which we define here as regimes where external forcing drives the system into conditions outside the empirical range of the historical training data. A fundamental challenge in evaluating this reliability is data contamination; because many models are trained on simulations that already encompass future scenarios, true out-of-distribution (OOD) performance is often masked. To address this, we benchmark the OOD robustness of three state-of-the-art architectures: U-Net, ConvLSTM, and the ClimaX foundation model specifically restricted to a historical-only training regime (1850-2014). We evaluate these models using two complementary strategies: (i) temporal extrapolation to the recent climate (2015-2023) and (ii) cross-scenario forcing shifts across divergent emission pathways. Our analysis within this experimental setup reveals an accuracy vs. stability trade-off: while the ClimaX foundation model achieves the lowest absolute error, it exhibits higher relative performance changes under distribution shifts, with precipitation errors increasing by up to 8.44% under extreme forcing scenarios. These findings suggest that when restricted to historical training dynamics, even high-capacity foundation models are sensitive to external forcing trajectories. Our results underscore the necessity of scenario-aware training and rigorous OOD evaluation protocols to ensure the robustness of climate emulators under a changing climate.

Procedural Generation of Algorithm Discovery Tasks in Machine Learning

Automating the development of machine learning algorithms has the potential to unlock new breakthroughs. However, our ability to improve and evaluate algorithm discovery systems has thus far been limited by existing task suites. They suffer from many issues, such as: poor evaluation methodologies; data contamination; and containing saturated or very similar problems. Here, we introduce DiscoGen, a procedural generator of algorithm discovery tasks for machine learning, such as developing optimisers for reinforcement learning or loss functions for image classification. Motivated by the success of procedural generation in reinforcement learning, DiscoGen spans millions of tasks of varying difficulty and complexity from a range of machine learning fields. These tasks are specified by a small number of configuration parameters and can be used to optimise algorithm discovery agents (ADAs). We present DiscoBench, a benchmark consisting of a fixed, small subset of DiscoGen tasks for principled evaluation of ADAs. Finally, we propose a number of ambitious, impactful research directions enabled by DiscoGen, in addition to experiments demonstrating its use for prompt optimisation of an ADA. DiscoGen is released open-source at https://github.com/AlexGoldie/discogen.