Align-RAG: Alignment Is All You Need for TSFM In-Context Learning

Retrieval-augmented forecasting promises to adapt frozen Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) to new domains without fine-tuning, but recent methods typically rely on learned fusion modules, i.e., trained adapters that merge retrieved examples into the backbone's forecast, based on the assumption that frozen backbones cannot dynamically incorporate retrieved context on their own. We show this assumption is unnecessary. We introduce Align-RAG, a training-free method that applies a closed-form per-pair amplitude rescaling and integer-lag phase shift to retrieved past-future windows before they enter a frozen backbone's context. With no learned parameters, Align-RAG outperforms the state-of-the-art trained retrieval adapter on a frozen Chronos-Bolt on all seven datasets of the standard benchmark (avg -3.75% MSE), showing that the gains previously attributed to learned fusion are recoverable without any training. Align-RAG further improves zero-shot MSE on four additional frozen TSFMs with various architectures by 2.5% to 13.7% per backbone with no per-backbone tuning. To probe why alignment helps, we compare the frozen backbone's prediction shift under aligned demonstrations to the closed-form ridge prediction shift on the same pairs. We find that aligned demonstrations induce prediction shifts that track a closed-form ridge predictor on the same pairs, with a future-shuffle control ruling out a futures-averaging account. Together, these results indicate that frozen TSFMs already support dynamic in-context use of retrievals, and that closed-form alignment should be the default baseline for retrieval-augmented forecasting before any fusion module is trained. Code available at: https://github.com/masadi-99/align-rag

MARCUS: An agentic, multimodal vision-language model for cardiac diagnosis and management

Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of global mortality, with progress hindered by human interpretation of complex cardiac tests. Current AI vision-language models are limited to single-modality inputs and are non-interactive. We present MARCUS (Multimodal Autonomous Reasoning and Chat for Ultrasound and Signals), an agentic vision-language system for end-to-end interpretation of electrocardiograms (ECGs), echocardiograms, and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) independently and as multimodal input. MARCUS employs a hierarchical agentic architecture comprising modality-specific vision-language expert models, each integrating domain-trained visual encoders with multi-stage language model optimization, coordinated by a multimodal orchestrator. Trained on 13.5 million images (0.25M ECGs, 1.3M echocardiogram images, 12M CMR images) and our novel expert-curated dataset spanning 1.6 million questions, MARCUS achieves state-of-the-art performance surpassing frontier models (GPT-5 Thinking, Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Think). Across internal (Stanford) and external (UCSF) test cohorts, MARCUS achieves accuracies of 87-91% for ECG, 67-86% for echocardiography, and 85-88% for CMR, outperforming frontier models by 34-45% (P<0.001). On multimodal cases, MARCUS achieved 70% accuracy, nearly triple that of frontier models (22-28%), with 1.7-3.0x higher free-text quality scores. Our agentic architecture also confers resistance to mirage reasoning, whereby vision-language models derive reasoning from unintended textual signals or hallucinated visual content. MARCUS demonstrates that domain-specific visual encoders with an agentic orchestrator enable multimodal cardiac interpretation. We release our models, code, and benchmark open-source.

Deterministic Hallucination Detection in Medical VQA via Confidence-Evidence Bayesian Gain

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown strong potential for medical Visual Question Answering (VQA), yet they remain prone to hallucinations, defined as generating responses that contradict the input image, posing serious risks in clinical settings. Current hallucination detection methods, such as Semantic Entropy (SE) and Vision-Amplified Semantic Entropy (VASE), require 10 to 20 stochastic generations per sample together with an external natural language inference model for semantic clustering, making them computationally expensive and difficult to deploy in practice. We observe that hallucinated responses exhibit a distinctive signature directly in the model's own log-probabilities: inconsistent token-level confidence and weak sensitivity to visual evidence. Based on this observation, we propose Confidence-Evidence Bayesian Gain (CEBaG), a deterministic hallucination detection method that requires no stochastic sampling, no external models, and no task-specific hyperparameters. CEBaG combines two complementary signals: token-level predictive variance, which captures inconsistent confidence across response tokens, and evidence magnitude, which measures how much the image shifts per-token predictions relative to text-only inference. Evaluated across four medical MLLMs and three VQA benchmarks (16 experimental settings), CEBaG achieves the highest AUC in 13 of 16 settings and improves over VASE by 8 AUC points on average, while being fully deterministic and self-contained. The code will be made available upon acceptance.

Mirage The Illusion of Visual Understanding

Multimodal AI systems have achieved remarkable performance across a broad range of real-world tasks, yet the mechanisms underlying visual-language reasoning remain surprisingly poorly understood. We report three findings that challenge prevailing assumptions about how these systems process and integrate visual information. First, Frontier models readily generate detailed image descriptions and elaborate reasoning traces, including pathology-biased clinical findings, for images never provided; we term this phenomenon mirage reasoning. Second, without any image input, models also attain strikingly high scores across general and medical multimodal benchmarks, bringing into question their utility and design. In the most extreme case, our model achieved the top rank on a standard chest X-ray question-answering benchmark without access to any images. Third, when models were explicitly instructed to guess answers without image access, rather than being implicitly prompted to assume images were present, performance declined markedly. Explicit guessing appears to engage a more conservative response regime, in contrast to the mirage regime in which models behave as though images have been provided. These findings expose fundamental vulnerabilities in how visual-language models reason and are evaluated, pointing to an urgent need for private benchmarks that eliminate textual cues enabling non-visual inference, particularly in medical contexts where miscalibrated AI carries the greatest consequence. We introduce B-Clean as a principled solution for fair, vision-grounded evaluation of multimodal AI systems.