Calendar Graph Neural Networks for Modeling Time Structures in Spatiotemporal User Behaviors

User behavior modeling is important for industrial applications such as demographic attribute prediction, content recommendation, and target advertising. Existing methods represent behavior log as a sequence of adopted items and find sequential patterns; however, concrete location and time information in the behavior log, reflecting dynamic and periodic patterns, joint with the spatial dimension, can be useful for modeling users and predicting their characteristics. In this work, we propose a novel model based on graph neural networks for learning user representations from spatiotemporal behavior data. A behavior log comprises a sequence of sessions; and a session has a location, start time, end time, and a sequence of adopted items. Our model's architecture incorporates two networked structures. One is a tripartite network of items, sessions, and locations. The other is a hierarchical calendar network of hour, week, and weekday nodes. It first aggregates embeddings of location and items into session embeddings via the tripartite network, and then generates user embeddings from the session embeddings via the calendar structure. The user embeddings preserve spatial patterns and temporal patterns of a variety of periodicity (e.g., hourly, weekly, and weekday patterns). It adopts the attention mechanism to model complex interactions among the multiple patterns in user behaviors. Experiments on real datasets (i.e., clicks on news articles in a mobile app) show our approach outperforms strong baselines for predicting missing demographic attributes.

MPP: Model Performance Predictor

Operations is a key challenge in the domain of machine learning pipeline deployments involving monitoring and management of real-time prediction quality. Typically, metrics like accuracy, RMSE etc., are used to track the performance of models in deployment. However, these metrics cannot be calculated in production due to the absence of labels. We propose using an ML algorithm, Model Performance Predictor (MPP), to track the performance of the models in deployment. We argue that an ensemble of such metrics can be used to create a score representing the prediction quality in production. This in turn facilitates formulation and customization of ML alerts, that can be escalated by an operations team to the data science team. Such a score automates monitoring and enables ML deployments at scale.

ML Health: Fitness Tracking for Production Models

Deployment of machine learning (ML) algorithms in production for extended periods of time has uncovered new challenges such as monitoring and management of real-time prediction quality of a model in the absence of labels. However, such tracking is imperative to prevent catastrophic business outcomes resulting from incorrect predictions. The scale of these deployments makes manual monitoring prohibitive, making automated techniques to track and raise alerts imperative. We present a framework, ML Health, for tracking potential drops in the predictive performance of ML models in the absence of labels. The framework employs diagnostic methods to generate alerts for further investigation. We develop one such method to monitor potential problems when production data patterns do not match training data distributions. We demonstrate that our method performs better than standard "distance metrics", such as RMSE, KL-Divergence, and Wasserstein at detecting issues with mismatched data sets. Finally, we present a working system that incorporates the ML Health approach to monitor and manage ML deployments within a realistic full production ML lifecycle.