CLIMAX: An exploration of Classifier-Based Contrastive Explanations

Explainable AI is an evolving area that deals with understanding the decision making of machine learning models so that these models are more transparent, accountable, and understandable for humans. In particular, post-hoc model-agnostic interpretable AI techniques explain the decisions of a black-box ML model for a single instance locally, without the knowledge of the intrinsic nature of the ML model. Despite their simplicity and capability in providing valuable insights, existing approaches fail to deliver consistent and reliable explanations. Moreover, in the context of black-box classifiers, existing approaches justify the predicted class, but these methods do not ensure that the explanation scores strongly differ as compared to those of another class. In this work we propose a novel post-hoc model agnostic XAI technique that provides contrastive explanations justifying the classification of a black box classifier along with a reasoning as to why another class was not predicted. Our method, which we refer to as CLIMAX which is short for Contrastive Label-aware Influence-based Model Agnostic XAI, is based on local classifiers . In order to ensure model fidelity of the explainer, we require the perturbations to be such that it leads to a class-balanced surrogate dataset. Towards this, we employ a label-aware surrogate data generation method based on random oversampling and Gaussian Mixture Model sampling. Further, we propose influence subsampling in order to retaining effective samples and hence ensure sample complexity. We show that we achieve better consistency as compared to baselines such as LIME, BayLIME, and SLIME. We also depict results on textual and image based datasets, where we generate contrastive explanations for any black-box classification model where one is able to only query the class probabilities for an instance of interest.

Over-The-Air Clustered Wireless Federated Learning

Privacy, security, and bandwidth constraints have led to federated learning (FL) in wireless systems, where training a machine learning (ML) model is accomplished collaboratively without sharing raw data. Often, such collaborative FL strategies necessitate model aggregation at a server. On the other hand, decentralized FL necessitates that participating clients reach a consensus ML model by exchanging parameter updates. In this work, we propose the over-the-air clustered wireless FL (CWFL) strategy, which eliminates the need for a strong central server and yet achieves an accuracy similar to the server-based strategy while using fewer channel uses as compared to decentralized FL. We theoretically show that the convergence rate of CWFL per cluster is O(1/T) while mitigating the impact of noise. Using the MNIST and CIFAR datasets, we demonstrate the accuracy performance of CWFL for the different number of clusters across communication rounds.

DAGSurv: Directed Acyclic Graph Based Survival Analysis Using Deep Neural Networks

Causal structures for observational survival data provide crucial information regarding the relationships between covariates and time-to-event. We derive motivation from the information theoretic source coding argument, and show that incorporating the knowledge of the directed acyclic graph (DAG) can be beneficial if suitable source encoders are employed. As a possible source encoder in this context, we derive a variational inference based conditional variational autoencoder for causal structured survival prediction, which we refer to as DAGSurv. We illustrate the performance of DAGSurv on low and high-dimensional synthetic datasets, and real-world datasets such as METABRIC and GBSG. We demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other survival analysis baselines such as Cox Proportional Hazards, DeepSurv and Deephit, which are oblivious to the underlying causal relationship between data entities.

Locally Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanations using Gaussian Processes

Owing to tremendous performance improvements in data-intensive domains, machine learning (ML) has garnered immense interest in the research community. However, these ML models turn out to be black boxes, which are tough to interpret, resulting in a direct decrease in productivity. Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) is a popular technique for explaining the prediction of a single instance. Although LIME is simple and versatile, it suffers from instability in the generated explanations. In this paper, we propose a Gaussian Process (GP) based variation of locally interpretable models. We employ a smart sampling strategy based on the acquisition functions in Bayesian optimization. Further, we employ the automatic relevance determination based covariance function in GP, with separate length-scale parameters for each feature, where the reciprocal of lengthscale parameters serve as feature explanations. We illustrate the performance of the proposed technique on two real-world datasets, and demonstrate the superior stability of the proposed technique. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed technique is able to generate faithful explanations using much fewer samples as compared to LIME.

B-SMALL: A Bayesian Neural Network approach to Sparse Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning

There is a growing interest in the learning-to-learn paradigm, also known as meta-learning, where models infer on new tasks using a few training examples. Recently, meta-learning based methods have been widely used in few-shot classification, regression, reinforcement learning, and domain adaptation. The model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm is a well-known algorithm that obtains model parameter initialization at meta-training phase. In the meta-test phase, this initialization is rapidly adapted to new tasks by using gradient descent. However, meta-learning models are prone to overfitting since there are insufficient training tasks resulting in over-parameterized models with poor generalization performance for unseen tasks. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian neural network based MAML algorithm, which we refer to as the B-SMALL algorithm. The proposed framework incorporates a sparse variational loss term alongside the loss function of MAML, which uses a sparsifying approximated KL divergence as a regularizer. We demonstrate the performance of B-MAML using classification and regression tasks, and highlight that training a sparsifying BNN using MAML indeed improves the parameter footprint of the model while performing at par or even outperforming the MAML approach. We also illustrate applicability of our approach in distributed sensor networks, where sparsity and meta-learning can be beneficial.

CAMTA: Casual Attention Model for Multi-touch Attribution

Advertising channels have evolved from conventional print media, billboards and radio advertising to online digital advertising (ad), where the users are exposed to a sequence of ad campaigns via social networks, display ads, search etc. While advertisers revisit the design of ad campaigns to concurrently serve the requirements emerging out of new ad channels, it is also critical for advertisers to estimate the contribution from touch-points (view, clicks, converts) on different channels, based on the sequence of customer actions. This process of contribution measurement is often referred to as multi-touch attribution (MTA). In this work, we propose CAMTA, a novel deep recurrent neural network architecture which is a casual attribution mechanism for user-personalised MTA in the context of observational data. CAMTA minimizes the selection bias in channel assignment across time-steps and touchpoints. Furthermore, it utilizes the users' pre-conversion actions in a principled way in order to predict pre-channel attribution. To quantitatively benchmark the proposed MTA model, we employ the real world Criteo dataset and demonstrate the superior performance of CAMTA with respect to prediction accuracy as compared to several baselines. In addition, we provide results for budget allocation and user-behaviour modelling on the predicted channel attribution.

Hi-CI: Deep Causal Inference in High Dimensions

We address the problem of counterfactual regression using causal inference (CI) in observational studies consisting of high dimensional covariates and high cardinality treatments. Confounding bias, which leads to inaccurate treatment effect estimation, is attributed to covariates that affect both treatments and outcome. The presence of high-dimensional co-variates exacerbates the impact of bias as it is harder to isolate and measure the impact of these confounders. In the presence of high-cardinality treatment variables, CI is rendered ill-posed due to the increase in the number of counterfactual outcomes to be predicted. We propose Hi-CI, a deep neural network (DNN) based framework for estimating causal effects in the presence of large number of covariates, and high-cardinal and continuous treatment variables. The proposed architecture comprises of a decorrelation network and an outcome prediction network. In the decorrelation network, we learn a data representation in lower dimensions as compared to the original covariates and addresses confounding bias alongside. Subsequently, in the outcome prediction network, we learn an embedding of high-cardinality and continuous treatments, jointly with the data representation. We demonstrate the efficacy of causal effect prediction of the proposed Hi-CI network using synthetic and real-world NEWS datasets.

MultiMBNN: Matched and Balanced Causal Inference with Neural Networks

Causal inference (CI) in observational studies has received a lot of attention in healthcare, education, ad attribution, policy evaluation, etc. Confounding is a typical hazard, where the context affects both, the treatment assignment and response. In a multiple treatment scenario, we propose the neural network based MultiMBNN, where we overcome confounding by employing generalized propensity score based matching, and learning balanced representations. We benchmark the performance on synthetic and real-world datasets using PEHE, and mean absolute percentage error over ATE as metrics. MultiMBNN outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms for CI such as TARNet and Perfect Match (PM).

MetaCI: Meta-Learning for Causal Inference in a Heterogeneous Population

Performing inference on data obtained through observational studies is becoming extremely relevant due to the widespread availability of data in fields such as healthcare, education, retail, etc. Furthermore, this data is accrued from multiple homogeneous subgroups of a heterogeneous population, and hence, generalizing the inference mechanism over such data is essential. We propose the MetaCI framework with the goal of answering counterfactual questions in the context of causal inference (CI), where the factual observations are obtained from several homogeneous subgroups. While the CI network is designed to generalize from factual to counterfactual distribution in order to tackle covariate shift, MetaCI employs the meta-learning paradigm to tackle the shift in data distributions between training and test phase due to the presence of heterogeneity in the population, and due to drifts in the target distribution, also known as concept shift. We benchmark the performance of the MetaCI algorithm using the mean absolute percentage error over the average treatment effect as the metric, and demonstrate that meta initialization has significant gains compared to randomly initialized networks, and other methods.