McCast: Memory-Guided Latent Drift Correction for Long-Horizon Precipitation Nowcasting

Existing precipitation nowcasting methods typically adopt an autoregressive formulation, where future states are predicted from previous outputs. However, such an approach accumulates errors over long rollouts, causing forecasts to drift away from physically plausible evolution trajectories. Although various studies have attempted to alleviate this problem by improving step-wise prediction accuracy, they largely neglect the global temporal evolution of meteorological systems and lack mechanisms to actively correct drift during rollouts. To address this issue, we propose McCast, a memory-guided latent drift correction method for precipitation nowcasting. Rather than treating memory as an unordered dictionary of latent states for passive conditioning, McCast leverages temporally organized memory to actively correct autoregressive latent evolution. Specifically, McCast introduces a Drift-Corrective Memory Bank (DCBank) that explicitly estimates the temporally consistent drift corrections to calibrate the divergent trajectory. DCBank performs drift correction in two stages: a Corrective Latent Extractor first predicts an initial correction from the current prediction and a reference latent state, and a Correction-Aware Memory Retrieval module then refines the initial correction using temporally organized historical memory. By explicitly correcting latent evolution, instead of improving step-wise prediction accuracy only, McCast produces more temporally coherent and reliable long-horizon forecasts. Experiments on two widely used benchmarks, SEVIR and MeteoNet, show that McCast achieves state-of-the-art performance, particularly in challenging long-horizon forecasting scenarios.

Stable Attention Response for Reliable Precipitation Nowcasting

Precipitation nowcasting remains challenging due to the highly localized, rapidly evolving, and heterogeneous nature of atmospheric dynamics. Although recent methods increasingly adopt attention-based architectures in both unimodal and multimodal settings, they mainly emphasize stronger representation learning and prediction capacity, while paying less attention to the stability of attention responses across samples. In this work, we show that cross-sample instability of attention-response energy is an important and previously underexplored source of forecasting unreliability. Empirically, inaccurate forecasts are associated with larger attention-response energy variance across heads and layers. Theoretically, we show that cross-sample variability can propagate through self-attention, and enlarge a lower bound on prediction error. Based on this insight, we propose HARECast, a Head-wise Attention Response Energy-regulated framework for precipitation nowcasting. HARECast explicitly models head-wise attention-response energy and stabilizes it through a group-wise regularization objective that reduces cross-sample fluctuations. The proposed formulation is generic and applicable to both unimodal and multimodal nowcasting architectures. We instantiate HARECast in a standard forecasting pipeline with reconstruction branches and a diffusion-based predictor, and evaluate it on commonly used benchmarks--SEVIR and MeteoNet. Experimental results demonstrate that HARECast achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Field-scale soil moisture estimated from Sentinel-1 SAR data using a knowledge-guided deep learning approach

Soil moisture (SM) estimation from active microwave data remains challenging due to the complex interactions between radar backscatter and surface characteristics. While the water cloud model (WCM) provides a semi-physical approach for understanding these interactions, its empirical component often limits performance across diverse agricultural landscapes. This research presents preliminary efforts for developing a knowledge-guided deep learning approach, which integrates WCM principles into a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, to estimate field SM using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Our proposed approach leverages LSTM's capacity to capture spatiotemporal dependencies while maintaining physical consistency through a modified dual-component loss function, including a WCM-based semi-physical component and a boundary condition regularisation. The proposed approach is built upon the soil backscatter coefficients isolated from the total backscatter, together with Landsat-resolution vegetation information and surface characteristics. A four-fold spatial cross-validation was performed against in-situ SM data to assess the model performance. Results showed the proposed approach reduced SM retrieval uncertainties by 0.02 m$^3$/m$^3$ and achieved correlation coefficients (R) of up to 0.64 in areas with varying vegetation cover and surface conditions, demonstrating the potential to address the over-simplification in WCM.

DuoCast: Duo-Probabilistic Meteorology-Aware Model for Extended Precipitation Nowcasting

Recently, extended short-term precipitation nowcasting struggles with decreasing precision because of insufficient consideration of meteorological knowledge, such as weather fronts which significantly influence precipitation intensity, duration, and spatial distribution. Therefore, in this paper, we present DuoCast, a novel dual-probabilistic meteorology-aware model designed to address both broad weather evolution and micro-scale fluctuations using two diffusion models, PrecipFlow and MicroDynamic, respectively. Our PrecipFlow model captures evolution trends through an Extreme Precipitation-Aware Encoder (EPA-Encoder), which includes AirConvolution and FrontAttention blocks to process two levels of precipitation data: general and extreme. The output conditions a UNet-based diffusion to produce prediction maps enriched with weather front information. The MicroDynamic model further refines the results to capture micro-scale variability. Extensive experiments on four public benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our DuoCast, achieving superior performance over state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/ph-w2000/DuoCast.