ACon$^2$: Adaptive Conformal Consensus for Provable Blockchain Oracles

Blockchains with smart contracts are distributed ledger systems which achieve block state consistency among distributed nodes by only allowing deterministic operations of smart contracts. However, the power of smart contracts is enabled by interacting with stochastic off-chain data, which in turn opens the possibility to undermine the block state consistency. To address this issue, an oracle smart contract is used to provide a single consistent source of external data; but, simultaneously this introduces a single point of failure, which is called the oracle problem. To address the oracle problem, we propose an adaptive conformal consensus (ACon$^2$) algorithm, which derives consensus from multiple oracle contracts via the recent advance in online uncertainty quantification learning. In particular, the proposed algorithm returns a consensus set, which quantifies the uncertainty of data and achieves a desired correctness guarantee in the presence of Byzantine adversaries and distribution shift. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm on two price datasets and an Ethereum case study. In particular, the Solidity implementation of the proposed algorithm shows the practicality of the proposed algorithm, implying that online machine learning algorithms are applicable to address issues in blockchains.

Decision-Aware Learning for Optimizing Health Supply Chains

We study the problem of allocating limited supply of medical resources in developing countries, in particular, Sierra Leone. We address this problem by combining machine learning (to predict demand) with optimization (to optimize allocations). A key challenge is the need to align the loss function used to train the machine learning model with the decision loss associated with the downstream optimization problem. Traditional solutions have limited flexibility in the model architecture and scale poorly to large datasets. We propose a decision-aware learning algorithm that uses a novel Taylor expansion of the optimal decision loss to derive the machine learning loss. Importantly, our approach only requires a simple re-weighting of the training data, ensuring it is both flexible and scalable, e.g., we incorporate it into a random forest trained using a multitask learning framework. We apply our framework to optimize the distribution of essential medicines in collaboration with policymakers in Sierra Leone; highly uncertain demand and limited budgets currently result in excessive unmet demand. Out-of-sample results demonstrate that our end-to-end approach can significantly reduce unmet demand across 1040 health facilities throughout Sierra Leone.

Bandits for Online Calibration: An Application to Content Moderation on Social Media Platforms

We describe the current content moderation strategy employed by Meta to remove policy-violating content from its platforms. Meta relies on both handcrafted and learned risk models to flag potentially violating content for human review. Our approach aggregates these risk models into a single ranking score, calibrating them to prioritize more reliable risk models. A key challenge is that violation trends change over time, affecting which risk models are most reliable. Our system additionally handles production challenges such as changing risk models and novel risk models. We use a contextual bandit to update the calibration in response to such trends. Our approach increases Meta's top-line metric for measuring the effectiveness of its content moderation strategy by 13%.

VIP: Towards Universal Visual Reward and Representation via Value-Implicit Pre-Training

Reward and representation learning are two long-standing challenges for learning an expanding set of robot manipulation skills from sensory observations. Given the inherent cost and scarcity of in-domain, task-specific robot data, learning from large, diverse, offline human videos has emerged as a promising path towards acquiring a generally useful visual representation for control; however, how these human videos can be used for general-purpose reward learning remains an open question. We introduce $\textbf{V}$alue-$\textbf{I}$mplicit $\textbf{P}$re-training (VIP), a self-supervised pre-trained visual representation capable of generating dense and smooth reward functions for unseen robotic tasks. VIP casts representation learning from human videos as an offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning problem and derives a self-supervised dual goal-conditioned value-function objective that does not depend on actions, enabling pre-training on unlabeled human videos. Theoretically, VIP can be understood as a novel implicit time contrastive objective that generates a temporally smooth embedding, enabling the value function to be implicitly defined via the embedding distance, which can then be used to construct the reward for any goal-image specified downstream task. Trained on large-scale Ego4D human videos and without any fine-tuning on in-domain, task-specific data, VIP's frozen representation can provide dense visual reward for an extensive set of simulated and $\textbf{real-robot}$ tasks, enabling diverse reward-based visual control methods and significantly outperforming all prior pre-trained representations. Notably, VIP can enable simple, $\textbf{few-shot}$ offline RL on a suite of real-world robot tasks with as few as 20 trajectories.

PAC Prediction Sets for Meta-Learning

Uncertainty quantification is a key component of machine learning models targeted at safety-critical systems such as in healthcare or autonomous vehicles. We study this problem in the context of meta learning, where the goal is to quickly adapt a predictor to new tasks. In particular, we propose a novel algorithm to construct \emph{PAC prediction sets}, which capture uncertainty via sets of labels, that can be adapted to new tasks with only a few training examples. These prediction sets satisfy an extension of the typical PAC guarantee to the meta learning setting; in particular, the PAC guarantee holds with high probability over future tasks. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on four datasets across three application domains: mini-ImageNet and CIFAR10-C in the visual domain, FewRel in the language domain, and the CDC Heart Dataset in the medical domain. In particular, our prediction sets satisfy the PAC guarantee while having smaller size compared to other baselines that also satisfy this guarantee.

How Far I'll Go: Offline Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning via $f$-Advantage Regression

Offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) promises general-purpose skill learning in the form of reaching diverse goals from purely offline datasets. We propose $\textbf{Go}$al-conditioned $f$-$\textbf{A}$dvantage $\textbf{R}$egression (GoFAR), a novel regression-based offline GCRL algorithm derived from a state-occupancy matching perspective; the key intuition is that the goal-reaching task can be formulated as a state-occupancy matching problem between a dynamics-abiding imitator agent and an expert agent that directly teleports to the goal. In contrast to prior approaches, GoFAR does not require any hindsight relabeling and enjoys uninterleaved optimization for its value and policy networks. These distinct features confer GoFAR with much better offline performance and stability as well as statistical performance guarantee that is unattainable for prior methods. Furthermore, we demonstrate that GoFAR's training objectives can be re-purposed to learn an agent-independent goal-conditioned planner from purely offline source-domain data, which enables zero-shot transfer to new target domains. Through extensive experiments, we validate GoFAR's effectiveness in various problem settings and tasks, significantly outperforming prior state-of-art. Notably, on a real robotic dexterous manipulation task, while no other method makes meaningful progress, GoFAR acquires complex manipulation behavior that successfully accomplishes diverse goals.

Specification-Guided Learning of Nash Equilibria with High Social Welfare

Reinforcement learning has been shown to be an effective strategy for automatically training policies for challenging control problems. Focusing on non-cooperative multi-agent systems, we propose a novel reinforcement learning framework for training joint policies that form a Nash equilibrium. In our approach, rather than providing low-level reward functions, the user provides high-level specifications that encode the objective of each agent. Then, guided by the structure of the specifications, our algorithm searches over policies to identify one that provably forms an $\epsilon$-Nash equilibrium (with high probability). Importantly, it prioritizes policies in a way that maximizes social welfare across all agents. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our algorithm computes equilibrium policies with high social welfare, whereas state-of-the-art baselines either fail to compute Nash equilibria or compute ones with comparatively lower social welfare.

Practical Adversarial Multivalid Conformal Prediction

We give a simple, generic conformal prediction method for sequential prediction that achieves target empirical coverage guarantees against adversarially chosen data. It is computationally lightweight -- comparable to split conformal prediction -- but does not require having a held-out validation set, and so all data can be used for training models from which to derive a conformal score. It gives stronger than marginal coverage guarantees in two ways. First, it gives threshold calibrated prediction sets that have correct empirical coverage even conditional on the threshold used to form the prediction set from the conformal score. Second, the user can specify an arbitrary collection of subsets of the feature space -- possibly intersecting -- and the coverage guarantees also hold conditional on membership in each of these subsets. We call our algorithm MVP, short for MultiValid Prediction. We give both theory and an extensive set of empirical evaluations.

Counterfactual Explanations for Natural Language Interfaces

A key challenge facing natural language interfaces is enabling users to understand the capabilities of the underlying system. We propose a novel approach for generating explanations of a natural language interface based on semantic parsing. We focus on counterfactual explanations, which are post-hoc explanations that describe to the user how they could have minimally modified their utterance to achieve their desired goal. In particular, the user provides an utterance along with a demonstration of their desired goal; then, our algorithm synthesizes a paraphrase of their utterance that is guaranteed to achieve their goal. In two user studies, we demonstrate that our approach substantially improves user performance, and that it generates explanations that more closely match the user's intent compared to two ablations.

Towards PAC Multi-Object Detection and Tracking

Accurately detecting and tracking multi-objects is important for safety-critical applications such as autonomous navigation. However, it remains challenging to provide guarantees on the performance of state-of-the-art techniques based on deep learning. We consider a strategy known as conformal prediction, which predicts sets of labels instead of a single label; in the classification and regression settings, these algorithms can guarantee that the true label lies within the prediction set with high probability. Building on these ideas, we propose multi-object detection and tracking algorithms that come with probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantees. They do so by constructing both a prediction set around each object detection as well as around the set of edge transitions; given an object, the detection prediction set contains its true bounding box with high probability, and the edge prediction set contains its true transition across frames with high probability. We empirically demonstrate that our method can detect and track objects with PAC guarantees on the COCO and MOT-17 datasets.