Conformal Prediction via Regression-as-Classification

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

Variational Learning is Effective for Large Deep Networks

We give extensive empirical evidence against the common belief that variational learning is ineffective for large neural networks. We show that an optimizer called Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) consistently matches or outperforms Adam for training large networks such as GPT-2 and ResNets from scratch. IVON's computational costs are nearly identical to Adam but its predictive uncertainty is better. We show several new use cases of IVON where we improve fine-tuning and model merging in Large Language Models, accurately predict generalization error, and faithfully estimate sensitivity to data. We find overwhelming evidence in support of effectiveness of variational learning.

Position Paper: Bayesian Deep Learning in the Age of Large-Scale AI

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

The Memory Perturbation Equation: Understanding Model's Sensitivity to Data

Understanding model's sensitivity to its training data is crucial but can also be challenging and costly, especially during training. To simplify such issues, we present the Memory-Perturbation Equation (MPE) which relates model's sensitivity to perturbation in its training data. Derived using Bayesian principles, the MPE unifies existing sensitivity measures, generalizes them to a wide-variety of models and algorithms, and unravels useful properties regarding sensitivities. Our empirical results show that sensitivity estimates obtained during training can be used to faithfully predict generalization on unseen test data. The proposed equation is expected to be useful for future research on robust and adaptive learning.

Model Merging by Uncertainty-Based Gradient Matching

Models trained on different datasets can be merged by a weighted-averaging of their parameters, but why does it work and when can it fail? Here, we connect the inaccuracy of weighted-averaging to mismatches in the gradients and propose a new uncertainty-based scheme to improve the performance by reducing the mismatch. The connection also reveals implicit assumptions in other schemes such as averaging, task arithmetic, and Fisher-weighted averaging. Our new method gives consistent improvements for large language models and vision transformers, both in terms of performance and robustness to hyperparameters.

Exploiting Inferential Structure in Neural Processes

Neural Processes (NPs) are appealing due to their ability to perform fast adaptation based on a context set. This set is encoded by a latent variable, which is often assumed to follow a simple distribution. However, in real-word settings, the context set may be drawn from richer distributions having multiple modes, heavy tails, etc. In this work, we provide a framework that allows NPs' latent variable to be given a rich prior defined by a graphical model. These distributional assumptions directly translate into an appropriate aggregation strategy for the context set. Moreover, we describe a message-passing procedure that still allows for end-to-end optimization with stochastic gradients. We demonstrate the generality of our framework by using mixture and Student-t assumptions that yield improvements in function modelling and test-time robustness.

Memory-Based Dual Gaussian Processes for Sequential Learning

Sequential learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is challenging when access to past data is limited, for example, in continual and active learning. In such cases, errors can accumulate over time due to inaccuracies in the posterior, hyperparameters, and inducing points, making accurate learning challenging. Here, we present a method to keep all such errors in check using the recently proposed dual sparse variational GP. Our method enables accurate inference for generic likelihoods and improves learning by actively building and updating a memory of past data. We demonstrate its effectiveness in several applications involving Bayesian optimization, active learning, and continual learning.

Variational Bayes Made Easy

Variational Bayes is a popular method for approximate inference but its derivation can be cumbersome. To simplify the process, we give a 3-step recipe to identify the posterior form by explicitly looking for linearity with respect to expectations of well-known distributions. We can then directly write the update by simply ``reading-off'' the terms in front of those expectations. The recipe makes the derivation easier, faster, shorter, and more general.

The Lie-Group Bayesian Learning Rule

The Bayesian Learning Rule provides a framework for generic algorithm design but can be difficult to use for three reasons. First, it requires a specific parameterization of exponential family. Second, it uses gradients which can be difficult to compute. Third, its update may not always stay on the manifold. We address these difficulties by proposing an extension based on Lie-groups where posteriors are parametrized through transformations of an arbitrary base distribution and updated via the group's exponential map. This simplifies all three difficulties for many cases, providing flexible parametrizations through group's action, simple gradient computation through reparameterization, and updates that always stay on the manifold. We use the new learning rule to derive a new algorithm for deep learning with desirable biologically-plausible attributes to learn sparse features. Our work opens a new frontier for the design of new algorithms by exploiting Lie-group structures.