Changes by Butterflies: Farsighted Forecasting with Group Reservoir Transformer

In Chaos, a minor divergence between two initial conditions exhibits exponential amplification over time, leading to far-away outcomes, known as the butterfly effect. Thus, the distant future is full of uncertainty and hard to forecast. We introduce Group Reservoir Transformer to predict long-term events more accurately and robustly by overcoming two challenges in Chaos: (1) the extensive historical sequences and (2) the sensitivity to initial conditions. A reservoir is attached to a Transformer to efficiently handle arbitrarily long historical lengths, with an extension of a group of reservoirs to reduce the uncertainty due to the initialization variations. Our architecture consistently outperforms state-of-the-art DNN models in multivariate time series, including NLinear, Pyformer, Informer, Autoformer, and the baseline Transformer, with an error reduction of up to -89.43\% in various fields such as ETTh, ETTm, and air quality, demonstrating that an ensemble of butterfly learning, the prediction can be improved to a more adequate and certain one, despite of the traveling time to the unknown future.

Impact Learning: A Learning Method from Features Impact and Competition

Machine learning is the study of computer algorithms that can automatically improve based on data and experience. Machine learning algorithms build a model from sample data, called training data, to make predictions or judgments without being explicitly programmed to do so. A variety of wellknown machine learning algorithms have been developed for use in the field of computer science to analyze data. This paper introduced a new machine learning algorithm called impact learning. Impact learning is a supervised learning algorithm that can be consolidated in both classification and regression problems. It can furthermore manifest its superiority in analyzing competitive data. This algorithm is remarkable for learning from the competitive situation and the competition comes from the effects of autonomous features. It is prepared by the impacts of the highlights from the intrinsic rate of natural increase (RNI). We, moreover, manifest the prevalence of the impact learning over the conventional machine learning algorithm.