Probabilistic Truly Unordered Rule Sets

Rule set learning has recently been frequently revisited because of its interpretability. Existing methods have several shortcomings though. First, most existing methods impose orders among rules, either explicitly or implicitly, which makes the models less comprehensible. Second, due to the difficulty of handling conflicts caused by overlaps (i.e., instances covered by multiple rules), existing methods often do not consider probabilistic rules. Third, learning classification rules for multi-class target is understudied, as most existing methods focus on binary classification or multi-class classification via the ``one-versus-rest" approach. To address these shortcomings, we propose TURS, for Truly Unordered Rule Sets. To resolve conflicts caused by overlapping rules, we propose a novel model that exploits the probabilistic properties of our rule sets, with the intuition of only allowing rules to overlap if they have similar probabilistic outputs. We next formalize the problem of learning a TURS model based on the MDL principle and develop a carefully designed heuristic algorithm. We benchmark against a wide range of rule-based methods and demonstrate that our method learns rule sets that have lower model complexity and highly competitive predictive performance. In addition, we empirically show that rules in our model are empirically ``independent" and hence truly unordered.

Graph Neural Network based Log Anomaly Detection and Explanation

Event logs are widely used to record the status of high-tech systems, making log anomaly detection important for monitoring those systems. Most existing log anomaly detection methods take a log event count matrix or log event sequences as input, exploiting quantitative and/or sequential relationships between log events to detect anomalies. Unfortunately, only considering quantitative or sequential relationships may result in many false positives and/or false negatives. To alleviate this problem, we propose a graph-based method for unsupervised log anomaly detection, dubbed Logs2Graphs, which first converts event logs into attributed, directed, and weighted graphs, and then leverages graph neural networks to perform graph-level anomaly detection. Specifically, we introduce One-Class Digraph Inception Convolutional Networks, abbreviated as OCDiGCN, a novel graph neural network model for detecting graph-level anomalies in a collection of attributed, directed, and weighted graphs. By coupling the graph representation and anomaly detection steps, OCDiGCN can learn a representation that is especially suited for anomaly detection, resulting in a high detection accuracy. Importantly, for each identified anomaly, we additionally provide a small subset of nodes that play a crucial role in OCDiGCN's prediction as explanations, which can offer valuable cues for subsequent root cause diagnosis. Experiments on five benchmark datasets show that Logs2Graphs performs at least on par state-of-the-art log anomaly detection methods on simple datasets while largely outperforming state-of-the-art log anomaly detection methods on complicated datasets.

Robust and Explainable Contextual Anomaly Detection using Quantile Regression Forests

Traditional anomaly detection methods aim to identify objects that deviate from most other objects by treating all features equally. In contrast, contextual anomaly detection methods aim to detect objects that deviate from other objects within a context of similar objects by dividing the features into contextual features and behavioral features. In this paper, we develop connections between dependency-based traditional anomaly detection methods and contextual anomaly detection methods. Based on resulting insights, we propose a novel approach to robust and inherently interpretable contextual anomaly detection that uses Quantile Regression Forests to model dependencies between features. Extensive experiments on various synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods in identifying contextual anomalies in terms of accuracy and robustness.

A Survey on Explainable Anomaly Detection

In the past two decades, most research on anomaly detection has focused on improving the accuracy of the detection, while largely ignoring the explainability of the corresponding methods and thus leaving the explanation of outcomes to practitioners. As anomaly detection algorithms are increasingly used in safety-critical domains, providing explanations for the high-stakes decisions made in those domains has become an ethical and regulatory requirement. Therefore, this work provides a comprehensive and structured survey on state-of-the-art explainable anomaly detection techniques. We propose a taxonomy based on the main aspects that characterize each explainable anomaly detection technique, aiming to help practitioners and researchers find the explainable anomaly detection method that best suits their needs.

Feature Selection for Fault Detection and Prediction based on Event Log Analysis

Event logs are widely used for anomaly detection and prediction in complex systems. Existing log-based anomaly detection methods usually consist of four main steps: log collection, log parsing, feature extraction, and anomaly detection, wherein the feature extraction step extracts useful features for anomaly detection by counting log events. For a complex system, such as a lithography machine consisting of a large number of subsystems, its log may contain thousands of different events, resulting in abounding extracted features. However, when anomaly detection is performed at the subsystem level, analyzing all features becomes expensive and unnecessary. To mitigate this problem, we develop a feature selection method for log-based anomaly detection and prediction, largely improving the effectiveness and efficiency.

Truly Unordered Probabilistic Rule Sets for Multi-class Classification

Rule set learning has long been studied and has recently been frequently revisited due to the need for interpretable models. Still, existing methods have several shortcomings: 1) most recent methods require a binary feature matrix as input, learning rules directly from numeric variables is understudied; 2) existing methods impose orders among rules, either explicitly or implicitly, which harms interpretability; and 3) currently no method exists for learning probabilistic rule sets for multi-class target variables (there is only a method for probabilistic rule lists). We propose TURS, for Truly Unordered Rule Sets, which addresses these shortcomings. We first formalise the problem of learning truly unordered rule sets. To resolve conflicts caused by overlapping rules, i.e., instances covered by multiple rules, we propose a novel approach that exploits the probabilistic properties of our rule sets. We next develop a two-phase heuristic algorithm that learns rule sets by carefully growing rules. An important innovation is that we use a surrogate score to take the global potential of the rule set into account when learning a local rule. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that, compared to non-probabilistic and (explicitly or implicitly) ordered state-of-the-art methods, our method learns rule sets that not only have better interpretability (i.e., they are smaller and truly unordered), but also better predictive performance.

Robust subgroup discovery

We introduce the problem of robust subgroup discovery, i.e., finding a set of interpretable descriptions of subsets that 1) stand out with respect to one or more target attributes, 2) are statistically robust, and 3) non-redundant. Many attempts have been made to mine either locally robust subgroups or to tackle the pattern explosion, but we are the first to address both challenges at the same time from a global perspective. First, we formulate a broad model class of subgroup lists, i.e., ordered sets of subgroups, for univariate and multivariate targets that can consist of nominal or numeric variables. This novel model class allows us to formalize the problem of optimal robust subgroup discovery using the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, where we resort to optimal Normalized Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian encodings for nominal and numeric targets, respectively. Notably, we show that our problem definition is equal to mining the top-1 subgroup with an information-theoretic quality measure plus a penalty for complexity. Second, as finding optimal subgroup lists is NP-hard, we propose RSD, a greedy heuristic that finds good subgroup lists and guarantees that the most significant subgroup found according to the MDL criterion is added in each iteration, which is shown to be equivalent to a Bayesian one-sample proportions, multinomial, or t-test between the subgroup and dataset marginal target distributions plus a multiple hypothesis testing penalty. We empirically show on 54 datasets that RSD outperforms previous subgroup set discovery methods in terms of quality and subgroup list size.

Discovering outstanding subgroup lists for numeric targets using MDL

The task of subgroup discovery (SD) is to find interpretable descriptions of subsets of a dataset that stand out with respect to a target attribute. To address the problem of mining large numbers of redundant subgroups, subgroup set discovery (SSD) has been proposed. State-of-the-art SSD methods have their limitations though, as they typically heavily rely on heuristics and/or user-chosen hyperparameters. We propose a dispersion-aware problem formulation for subgroup set discovery that is based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle and subgroup lists. We argue that the best subgroup list is the one that best summarizes the data given the overall distribution of the target. We restrict our focus to a single numeric target variable and show that our formalization coincides with an existing quality measure when finding a single subgroup, but that-in addition-it allows to trade off subgroup quality with the complexity of the subgroup. We next propose SSD++, a heuristic algorithm for which we empirically demonstrate that it returns outstanding subgroup lists: non-redundant sets of compact subgroups that stand out by having strongly deviating means and small spread.

Unsupervised Discretization by Two-dimensional MDL-based Histogram

Unsupervised discretization is a crucial step in many knowledge discovery tasks. The state-of-the-art method for one-dimensional data infers locally adaptive histograms using the minimum description length (MDL) principle, but the multi-dimensional case is far less studied: current methods consider the dimensions one at a time (if not independently), which result in discretizations based on rectangular cells of adaptive size. Unfortunately, this approach is unable to adequately characterize dependencies among dimensions and/or results in discretizations consisting of more cells (or bins) than is desirable. To address this problem, we propose an expressive model class that allows for far more flexible partitions of two-dimensional data. We extend the state of the art for the one-dimensional case to obtain a model selection problem based on the normalised maximum likelihood, a form of refined MDL. As the flexibility of our model class comes at the cost of a vast search space, we introduce a heuristic algorithm, named PALM, which partitions each dimension alternately and then merges neighbouring regions, all using the MDL principle. Experiments on synthetic data show that PALM 1) accurately reveals ground truth partitions that are within the model class (i.e., the search space), given a large enough sample size; 2) approximates well a wide range of partitions outside the model class; 3) converges, in contrast to its closest competitor IPD; and 4) is self-adaptive with regard to both sample size and local density structure of the data despite being parameter-free. Finally, we apply our algorithm to two geographic datasets to demonstrate its real-world potential.