Multicalibration for Confidence Scoring in LLMs

This paper proposes the use of "multicalibration" to yield interpretable and reliable confidence scores for outputs generated by large language models (LLMs). Multicalibration asks for calibration not just marginally, but simultaneously across various intersecting groupings of the data. We show how to form groupings for prompt/completion pairs that are correlated with the probability of correctness via two techniques: clustering within an embedding space, and "self-annotation" - querying the LLM by asking it various yes-or-no questions about the prompt. We also develop novel variants of multicalibration algorithms that offer performance improvements by reducing their tendency to overfit. Through systematic benchmarking across various question answering datasets and LLMs, we show how our techniques can yield confidence scores that provide substantial improvements in fine-grained measures of both calibration and accuracy compared to existing methods.

Federated Fairness without Access to Sensitive Groups

Current approaches to group fairness in federated learning assume the existence of predefined and labeled sensitive groups during training. However, due to factors ranging from emerging regulations to dynamics and location-dependency of protected groups, this assumption may be unsuitable in many real-world scenarios. In this work, we propose a new approach to guarantee group fairness that does not rely on any predefined definition of sensitive groups or additional labels. Our objective allows the federation to learn a Pareto efficient global model ensuring worst-case group fairness and it enables, via a single hyper-parameter, trade-offs between fairness and utility, subject only to a group size constraint. This implies that any sufficiently large subset of the population is guaranteed to receive at least a minimum level of utility performance from the model. The proposed objective encompasses existing approaches as special cases, such as empirical risk minimization and subgroup robustness objectives from centralized machine learning. We provide an algorithm to solve this problem in federation that enjoys convergence and excess risk guarantees. Our empirical results indicate that the proposed approach can effectively improve the worst-performing group that may be present without unnecessarily hurting the average performance, exhibits superior or comparable performance to relevant baselines, and achieves a large set of solutions with different fairness-utility trade-offs.

Scalable Membership Inference Attacks via Quantile Regression

Membership inference attacks are designed to determine, using black box access to trained models, whether a particular example was used in training or not. Membership inference can be formalized as a hypothesis testing problem. The most effective existing attacks estimate the distribution of some test statistic (usually the model's confidence on the true label) on points that were (and were not) used in training by training many \emph{shadow models} -- i.e. models of the same architecture as the model being attacked, trained on a random subsample of data. While effective, these attacks are extremely computationally expensive, especially when the model under attack is large. We introduce a new class of attacks based on performing quantile regression on the distribution of confidence scores induced by the model under attack on points that are not used in training. We show that our method is competitive with state-of-the-art shadow model attacks, while requiring substantially less compute because our attack requires training only a single model. Moreover, unlike shadow model attacks, our proposed attack does not require any knowledge of the architecture of the model under attack and is therefore truly ``black-box". We show the efficacy of this approach in an extensive series of experiments on various datasets and model architectures.

Efficient Embedding of Semantic Similarity in Control Policies via Entangled Bisimulation

Learning generalizeable policies from visual input in the presence of visual distractions is a challenging problem in reinforcement learning. Recently, there has been renewed interest in bisimulation metrics as a tool to address this issue; these metrics can be used to learn representations that are, in principle, invariant to irrelevant distractions by measuring behavioural similarity between states. An accurate, unbiased, and scalable estimation of these metrics has proved elusive in continuous state and action scenarios. We propose entangled bisimulation, a bisimulation metric that allows the specification of the distance function between states, and can be estimated without bias in continuous state and action spaces. We show how entangled bisimulation can meaningfully improve over previous methods on the Distracting Control Suite (DCS), even when added on top of data augmentation techniques.

Minimax Demographic Group Fairness in Federated Learning

Federated learning is an increasingly popular paradigm that enables a large number of entities to collaboratively learn better models. In this work, we study minimax group fairness in federated learning scenarios where different participating entities may only have access to a subset of the population groups during the training phase. We formally analyze how our proposed group fairness objective differs from existing federated learning fairness criteria that impose similar performance across participants instead of demographic groups. We provide an optimization algorithm -- FedMinMax -- for solving the proposed problem that provably enjoys the performance guarantees of centralized learning algorithms. We experimentally compare the proposed approach against other state-of-the-art methods in terms of group fairness in various federated learning setups, showing that our approach exhibits competitive or superior performance.

Distributionally Robust Group Backwards Compatibility

Machine learning models are updated as new data is acquired or new architectures are developed. These updates usually increase model performance, but may introduce backward compatibility errors, where individual users or groups of users see their performance on the updated model adversely affected. This problem can also be present when training datasets do not accurately reflect overall population demographics, with some groups having overall lower participation in the data collection process, posing a significant fairness concern. We analyze how ideas from distributional robustness and minimax fairness can aid backward compatibility in this scenario, and propose two methods to directly address this issue. Our theoretical analysis is backed by experimental results on CIFAR-10, CelebA, and Waterbirds, three standard image classification datasets. Code available at github.com/natalialmg/GroupBC

Federating for Learning Group Fair Models

Federated learning is an increasingly popular paradigm that enables a large number of entities to collaboratively learn better models. In this work, we study minmax group fairness in paradigms where different participating entities may only have access to a subset of the population groups during the training phase. We formally analyze how this fairness objective differs from existing federated learning fairness criteria that impose similar performance across participants instead of demographic groups. We provide an optimization algorithm -- FedMinMax -- for solving the proposed problem that provably enjoys the performance guarantees of centralized learning algorithms. We experimentally compare the proposed approach against other methods in terms of group fairness in various federated learning setups.

Minimax Pareto Fairness: A Multi Objective Perspective

In this work we formulate and formally characterize group fairness as a multi-objective optimization problem, where each sensitive group risk is a separate objective. We propose a fairness criterion where a classifier achieves minimax risk and is Pareto-efficient w.r.t. all groups, avoiding unnecessary harm, and can lead to the best zero-gap model if policy dictates so. We provide a simple optimization algorithm compatible with deep neural networks to satisfy these constraints. Since our method does not require test-time access to sensitive attributes, it can be applied to reduce worst-case classification errors between outcomes in unbalanced classification problems. We test the proposed methodology on real case-studies of predicting income, ICU patient mortality, skin lesions classification, and assessing credit risk, demonstrating how our framework compares favorably to other approaches.

Instance based Generalization in Reinforcement Learning

Agents trained via deep reinforcement learning (RL) routinely fail to generalize to unseen environments, even when these share the same underlying dynamics as the training levels. Understanding the generalization properties of RL is one of the challenges of modern machine learning. Towards this goal, we analyze policy learning in the context of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) and formalize the dynamics of training levels as instances. We prove that, independently of the exploration strategy, reusing instances introduces significant changes on the effective Markov dynamics the agent observes during training. Maximizing expected rewards impacts the learned belief state of the agent by inducing undesired instance specific speedrunning policies instead of generalizeable ones, which are suboptimal on the training set. We provide generalization bounds to the value gap in train and test environments based on the number of training instances, and use insights based on these to improve performance on unseen levels. We propose training a shared belief representation over an ensemble of specialized policies, from which we compute a consensus policy that is used for data collection, disallowing instance specific exploitation. We experimentally validate our theory, observations, and the proposed computational solution over the CoinRun benchmark.

Fairness With Minimal Harm: A Pareto-Optimal Approach For Healthcare

Common fairness definitions in machine learning focus on balancing notions of disparity and utility. In this work, we study fairness in the context of risk disparity among sub-populations. We are interested in learning models that minimize performance discrepancies across sensitive groups without causing unnecessary harm. This is relevant to high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where non-maleficence is a core principle. We formalize this objective using Pareto frontiers, and provide analysis, based on recent works in fairness, to exemplify scenarios were perfect fairness might not be feasible without doing unnecessary harm. We present a methodology for training neural networks that achieve our goal by dynamically re-balancing subgroups risks. We argue that even in domains where fairness at cost is required, finding a non-unnecessary-harm fairness model is the optimal initial step. We demonstrate this methodology on real case-studies of predicting ICU patient mortality, and classifying skin lesions from dermatoscopic images.