An Anytime Algorithm for Good Arm Identification

In good arm identification (GAI), the goal is to identify one arm whose average performance exceeds a given threshold, referred to as good arm, if it exists. Few works have studied GAI in the fixed-budget setting, when the sampling budget is fixed beforehand, or the anytime setting, when a recommendation can be asked at any time. We propose APGAI, an anytime and parameter-free sampling rule for GAI in stochastic bandits. APGAI can be straightforwardly used in fixed-confidence and fixed-budget settings. First, we derive upper bounds on its probability of error at any time. They show that adaptive strategies are more efficient in detecting the absence of good arms than uniform sampling. Second, when APGAI is combined with a stopping rule, we prove upper bounds on the expected sampling complexity, holding at any confidence level. Finally, we show good empirical performance of APGAI on synthetic and real-world data. Our work offers an extensive overview of the GAI problem in all settings.

On the Complexity of Differentially Private Best-Arm Identification with Fixed Confidence

Best Arm Identification (BAI) problems are progressively used for data-sensitive applications, such as designing adaptive clinical trials, tuning hyper-parameters, and conducting user studies to name a few. Motivated by the data privacy concerns invoked by these applications, we study the problem of BAI with fixed confidence under $\epsilon$-global Differential Privacy (DP). First, to quantify the cost of privacy, we derive a lower bound on the sample complexity of any $\delta$-correct BAI algorithm satisfying $\epsilon$-global DP. Our lower bound suggests the existence of two privacy regimes depending on the privacy budget $\epsilon$. In the high-privacy regime (small $\epsilon$), the hardness depends on a coupled effect of privacy and a novel information-theoretic quantity, called the Total Variation Characteristic Time. In the low-privacy regime (large $\epsilon$), the sample complexity lower bound reduces to the classical non-private lower bound. Second, we propose AdaP-TT, an $\epsilon$-global DP variant of the Top Two algorithm. AdaP-TT runs in arm-dependent adaptive episodes and adds Laplace noise to ensure a good privacy-utility trade-off. We derive an asymptotic upper bound on the sample complexity of AdaP-TT that matches with the lower bound up to multiplicative constants in the high-privacy regime. Finally, we provide an experimental analysis of AdaP-TT that validates our theoretical results.

An $\varepsilon$-Best-Arm Identification Algorithm for Fixed-Confidence and Beyond

We propose EB-TC$\varepsilon$, a novel sampling rule for $\varepsilon$-best arm identification in stochastic bandits. It is the first instance of Top Two algorithm analyzed for approximate best arm identification. EB-TC$\varepsilon$ is an *anytime* sampling rule that can therefore be employed without modification for fixed confidence or fixed budget identification (without prior knowledge of the budget). We provide three types of theoretical guarantees for EB-TC$\varepsilon$. First, we prove bounds on its expected sample complexity in the fixed confidence setting, notably showing its asymptotic optimality in combination with an adaptive tuning of its exploration parameter. We complement these findings with upper bounds on its probability of error at any time and for any error parameter, which further yield upper bounds on its simple regret at any time. Finally, we show through numerical simulations that EB-TC$\varepsilon$ performs favorably compared to existing algorithms, in different settings.

Non-Asymptotic Analysis of a UCB-based Top Two Algorithm

A Top Two sampling rule for bandit identification is a method which selects the next arm to sample from among two candidate arms, a leader and a challenger. Due to their simplicity and good empirical performance, they have received increased attention in recent years. For fixed-confidence best arm identification, theoretical guarantees for Top Two methods have only been obtained in the asymptotic regime, when the error level vanishes. We derive the first non-asymptotic upper bound on the expected sample complexity of a Top Two algorithm holding for any error level. Our analysis highlights sufficient properties for a regret minimization algorithm to be used as leader. They are satisfied by the UCB algorithm and our proposed UCB-based Top Two algorithm enjoys simultaneously non-asymptotic guarantees and competitive empirical performance.

Dealing with Unknown Variances in Best-Arm Identification

The problem of identifying the best arm among a collection of items having Gaussian rewards distribution is well understood when the variances are known. Despite its practical relevance for many applications, few works studied it for unknown variances. In this paper we introduce and analyze two approaches to deal with unknown variances, either by plugging in the empirical variance or by adapting the transportation costs. In order to calibrate our two stopping rules, we derive new time-uniform concentration inequalities, which are of independent interest. Then, we illustrate the theoretical and empirical performances of our two sampling rule wrappers on Track-and-Stop and on a Top Two algorithm. Moreover, by quantifying the impact on the sample complexity of not knowing the variances, we reveal that it is rather small.

Top Two Algorithms Revisited

Top Two algorithms arose as an adaptation of Thompson sampling to best arm identification in multi-armed bandit models (Russo, 2016), for parametric families of arms. They select the next arm to sample from by randomizing among two candidate arms, a leader and a challenger. Despite their good empirical performance, theoretical guarantees for fixed-confidence best arm identification have only been obtained when the arms are Gaussian with known variances. In this paper, we provide a general analysis of Top Two methods, which identifies desirable properties of the leader, the challenger, and the (possibly non-parametric) distributions of the arms. As a result, we obtain theoretically supported Top Two algorithms for best arm identification with bounded distributions. Our proof method demonstrates in particular that the sampling step used to select the leader inherited from Thompson sampling can be replaced by other choices, like selecting the empirical best arm.

Choosing Answers in $\varepsilon$-Best-Answer Identification for Linear Bandits

In pure-exploration problems, information is gathered sequentially to answer a question on the stochastic environment. While best-arm identification for linear bandits has been extensively studied in recent years, few works have been dedicated to identifying one arm that is $\varepsilon$-close to the best one (and not exactly the best one). In this problem with several correct answers, an identification algorithm should focus on one candidate among those answers and verify that it is correct. We demonstrate that picking the answer with highest mean does not allow an algorithm to reach asymptotic optimality in terms of expected sample complexity. Instead, a \textit{furthest answer} should be identified. Using that insight to choose the candidate answer carefully, we develop a simple procedure to adapt best-arm identification algorithms to tackle $\varepsilon$-best-answer identification in transductive linear stochastic bandits. Finally, we propose an asymptotically optimal algorithm for this setting, which is shown to achieve competitive empirical performance against existing modified best-arm identification algorithms.

Efficient Pure Exploration for Combinatorial Bandits with Semi-Bandit Feedback

Combinatorial bandits with semi-bandit feedback generalize multi-armed bandits, where the agent chooses sets of arms and observes a noisy reward for each arm contained in the chosen set. The action set satisfies a given structure such as forming a base of a matroid or a path in a graph. We focus on the pure-exploration problem of identifying the best arm with fixed confidence, as well as a more general setting, where the structure of the answer set differs from the one of the action set. Using the recently popularized game framework, we interpret this problem as a sequential zero-sum game and develop a CombGame meta-algorithm whose instances are asymptotically optimal algorithms with finite time guarantees. In addition to comparing two families of learners to instantiate our meta-algorithm, the main contribution of our work is a specific oracle efficient instance for best-arm identification with combinatorial actions. Based on a projection-free online learning algorithm for convex polytopes, it is the first computationally efficient algorithm which is asymptotically optimal and has competitive empirical performance.

A Probabilistic Model of the Bitcoin Blockchain

The Bitcoin transaction graph is a public data structure organized as transactions between addresses, each associated with a logical entity. In this work, we introduce a complete probabilistic model of the Bitcoin Blockchain. We first formulate a set of conditional dependencies induced by the Bitcoin protocol at the block level and derive a corresponding fully observed graphical model of a Bitcoin block. We then extend the model to include hidden entity attributes such as the functional category of the associated logical agent and derive asymptotic bounds on the privacy properties implied by this model. At the network level, we show evidence of complex transaction-to-transaction behavior and present a relevant discriminative model of the agent categories. Performance of both the block-based graphical model and the network-level discriminative model is evaluated on a subset of the public Bitcoin Blockchain.

Characterizing Entities in the Bitcoin Blockchain

Bitcoin has created a new exchange paradigm within which financial transactions can be trusted without an intermediary. This premise of a free decentralized transactional network however requires, in its current implementation, unrestricted access to the ledger for peer-based transaction verification. A number of studies have shown that, in this pseudonymous context, identities can be leaked based on transaction features or off-network information. In this work, we analyze the information revealed by the pattern of transactions in the neighborhood of a given entity transaction. By definition, these features which pertain to an extended network are not directly controllable by the entity, but might enable leakage of information about transacting entities. We define a number of new features relevant to entity characterization on the Bitcoin Blockchain and study their efficacy in practice. We show that even a weak attacker with shallow data mining knowledge is able to leverage these features to characterize the entity properties.