Latent Bayesian Inference for Robust Earnings Estimates

Equity research analysts at financial institutions play a pivotal role in capital markets; they provide an efficient conduit between investors and companies' management and facilitate the efficient flow of information from companies, promoting functional and liquid markets. However, previous research in the academic finance and behavioral economics communities has found that analysts' estimates of future company earnings and other financial quantities can be affected by a number of behavioral, incentive-based and discriminatory biases and systematic errors, which can detrimentally affect both investors and public companies. We propose a Bayesian latent variable model for analysts' systematic errors and biases which we use to generate a robust bias-adjusted consensus estimate of company earnings. Experiments using historical earnings estimates data show that our model is more accurate than the consensus average of estimates and other related approaches.

Heuristics for Link Prediction in Multiplex Networks

Link prediction, or the inference of future or missing connections between entities, is a well-studied problem in network analysis. A multitude of heuristics exist for link prediction in ordinary networks with a single type of connection. However, link prediction in multiplex networks, or networks with multiple types of connections, is not a well understood problem. We propose a novel general framework and three families of heuristics for multiplex network link prediction that are simple, interpretable, and take advantage of the rich connection type correlation structure that exists in many real world networks. We further derive a theoretical threshold for determining when to use a different connection type based on the number of links that overlap with an Erdos-Renyi random graph. Through experiments with simulated and real world scientific collaboration, transportation and global trade networks, we demonstrate that the proposed heuristics show increased performance with the richness of connection type correlation structure and significantly outperform their baseline heuristics for ordinary networks with a single connection type.

Playing Games in the Dark: An approach for cross-modality transfer in reinforcement learning

In this work we explore the use of latent representations obtained from multiple input sensory modalities (such as images or sounds) in allowing an agent to learn and exploit policies over different subsets of input modalities. We propose a three-stage architecture that allows a reinforcement learning agent trained over a given sensory modality, to execute its task on a different sensory modality-for example, learning a visual policy over image inputs, and then execute such policy when only sound inputs are available. We show that the generalized policies achieve better out-of-the-box performance when compared to different baselines. Moreover, we show this holds in different OpenAI gym and video game environments, even when using different multimodal generative models and reinforcement learning algorithms.

Reinforcement Learning for Market Making in a Multi-agent Dealer Market

Market makers play an important role in providing liquidity to markets by continuously quoting prices at which they are willing to buy and sell, and managing inventory risk. In this paper, we build a multi-agent simulation of a dealer market and demonstrate that it can be used to understand the behavior of a reinforcement learning (RL) based market maker agent. We use the simulator to train an RL-based market maker agent with different competitive scenarios, reward formulations and market price trends (drifts). We show that the reinforcement learning agent is able to learn about its competitor's pricing policy; it also learns to manage inventory by smartly selecting asymmetric prices on the buy and sell sides (skewing), and maintaining a positive (or negative) inventory depending on whether the market price drift is positive (or negative). Finally, we propose and test reward formulations for creating risk averse RL-based market maker agents.

A Robot's Expressive Language Affects Human Strategy and Perceptions in a Competitive Game

As robots are increasingly endowed with social and communicative capabilities, they will interact with humans in more settings, both collaborative and competitive. We explore human-robot relationships in the context of a competitive Stackelberg Security Game. We vary humanoid robot expressive language (in the form of "encouraging" or "discouraging" verbal commentary) and measure the impact on participants' rationality, strategy prioritization, mood, and perceptions of the robot. We learn that a robot opponent that makes discouraging comments causes a human to play a game less rationally and to perceive the robot more negatively. We also contribute a simple open source Natural Language Processing framework for generating expressive sentences, which was used to generate the speech of our autonomous social robot.

Leveraging Multimodal Haptic Sensory Data for Robust Cutting

Cutting is a common form of manipulation when working with divisible objects such as food, rope, or clay. Cooking in particular relies heavily on cutting to divide food items into desired shapes. However, cutting food is a challenging task due to the wide range of material properties exhibited by food items. Due to this variability, the same cutting motions cannot be used for all food items. Sensations from contact events, e.g., when placing the knife on the food item, will also vary depending on the material properties, and the robot will need to adapt accordingly. In this paper, we propose using vibrations and force-torque feedback from the interactions to adapt the slicing motions and monitor for contact events. The robot learns neural networks for performing each of these tasks and generalizing across different material properties. By adapting and monitoring the skill executions, the robot is able to reliably cut through more than 20 different types of food items and even detect whether certain food items are fresh or old.

The Effect of Visual Design in Image Classification

Financial companies continuously analyze the state of the markets to rethink and adjust their investment strategies. While the analysis is done on the digital form of data, decisions are often made based on graphical representations in white papers or presentation slides. In this study, we examine whether binary decisions are better to be decided based on the numeric or the visual representation of the same data. Using two data sets, a matrix of numerical data with spatial dependencies and financial data describing the state of the S&P index, we compare the results of supervised classification based on the original numerical representation and the visual transformation of the same data. We show that, for these data sets, the visual transformation results in higher predictability skill compared to the original form of the data. We suggest thinking of the visual representation of numeric data, effectively, as a combination of dimensional reduction and feature engineering techniques. In particular, if the visual layout encapsulates the full complexity of the data. In this view, thoughtful visual design can guard against overfitting, or introduce new features -- all of which benefit the learning process, and effectively lead to better recognition of meaningful patterns.

MineRL: A Large-Scale Dataset of Minecraft Demonstrations

The sample inefficiency of standard deep reinforcement learning methods precludes their application to many real-world problems. Methods which leverage human demonstrations require fewer samples but have been researched less. As demonstrated in the computer vision and natural language processing communities, large-scale datasets have the capacity to facilitate research by serving as an experimental and benchmarking platform for new methods. However, existing datasets compatible with reinforcement learning simulators do not have sufficient scale, structure, and quality to enable the further development and evaluation of methods focused on using human examples. Therefore, we introduce a comprehensive, large-scale, simulator-paired dataset of human demonstrations: MineRL. The dataset consists of over 60 million automatically annotated state-action pairs across a variety of related tasks in Minecraft, a dynamic, 3D, open-world environment. We present a novel data collection scheme which allows for the ongoing introduction of new tasks and the gathering of complete state information suitable for a variety of methods. We demonstrate the hierarchality, diversity, and scale of the MineRL dataset. Further, we show the difficulty of the Minecraft domain along with the potential of MineRL in developing techniques to solve key research challenges within it.

Trading via Image Classification

The art of systematic financial trading evolved with an array of approaches, ranging from simple strategies to complex algorithms all relying, primary, on aspects of time-series analysis. Recently, after visiting the trading floor of a leading financial institution, we noticed that traders always execute their trade orders while observing images of financial time-series on their screens. In this work, we built upon the success in image recognition and examine the value in transforming the traditional time-series analysis to that of image classification. We create a large sample of financial time-series images encoded as candlestick (Box and Whisker) charts and label the samples following three algebraically-defined binary trade strategies. Using the images, we train over a dozen machine-learning classification models and find that the algorithms are very efficient in recovering the complicated, multiscale label-generating rules when the data is represented visually. We suggest that the transformation of continuous numeric time-series classification problem to a vision problem is useful for recovering signals typical of technical analysis.