Social AI and the Challenges of the Human-AI Ecosystem

The rise of large-scale socio-technical systems in which humans interact with artificial intelligence (AI) systems (including assistants and recommenders, in short AIs) multiplies the opportunity for the emergence of collective phenomena and tipping points, with unexpected, possibly unintended, consequences. For example, navigation systems' suggestions may create chaos if too many drivers are directed on the same route, and personalised recommendations on social media may amplify polarisation, filter bubbles, and radicalisation. On the other hand, we may learn how to foster the "wisdom of crowds" and collective action effects to face social and environmental challenges. In order to understand the impact of AI on socio-technical systems and design next-generation AIs that team with humans to help overcome societal problems rather than exacerbate them, we propose to build the foundations of Social AI at the intersection of Complex Systems, Network Science and AI. In this perspective paper, we discuss the main open questions in Social AI, outlining possible technical and scientific challenges and suggesting research avenues.

Enhancing crowd flow prediction in various spatial and temporal granularities

Thanks to the diffusion of the Internet of Things, nowadays it is possible to sense human mobility almost in real time using unconventional methods (e.g., number of bikes in a bike station). Due to the diffusion of such technologies, the last years have witnessed a significant growth of human mobility studies, motivated by their importance in a wide range of applications, from traffic management to public security and computational epidemiology. A mobility task that is becoming prominent is crowd flow prediction, i.e., forecasting aggregated incoming and outgoing flows in the locations of a geographic region. Although several deep learning approaches have been proposed to solve this problem, their usage is limited to specific types of spatial tessellations and cannot provide sufficient explanations of their predictions. We propose CrowdNet, a solution to crowd flow prediction based on graph convolutional networks. Compared with state-of-the-art solutions, CrowdNet can be used with regions of irregular shapes and provide meaningful explanations of the predicted crowd flows. We conduct experiments on public data varying the spatio-temporal granularity of crowd flows to show the superiority of our model with respect to existing methods, and we investigate CrowdNet's reliability to missing or noisy input data. Our model is a step forward in the design of reliable deep learning models to predict and explain human displacements in urban environments.

Trajectory Test-Train Overlap in Next-Location Prediction Datasets

Next-location prediction, consisting of forecasting a user's location given their historical trajectories, has important implications in several fields, such as urban planning, geo-marketing, and disease spreading. Several predictors have been proposed in the last few years to address it, including last-generation ones based on deep learning. This paper tests the generalization capability of these predictors on public mobility datasets, stratifying the datasets by whether the trajectories in the test set also appear fully or partially in the training set. We consistently discover a severe problem of trajectory overlapping in all analyzed datasets, highlighting that predictors memorize trajectories while having limited generalization capacities. We thus propose a methodology to rerank the outputs of the next-location predictors based on spatial mobility patterns. With these techniques, we significantly improve the predictors' generalization capability, with a relative improvement on the accuracy up to 96.15% on the trajectories that cannot be memorized (i.e., low overlap with the training set).

Generating Synthetic Mobility Networks with Generative Adversarial Networks

The increasingly crucial role of human displacements in complex societal phenomena, such as traffic congestion, segregation, and the diffusion of epidemics, is attracting the interest of scientists from several disciplines. In this article, we address mobility network generation, i.e., generating a city's entire mobility network, a weighted directed graph in which nodes are geographic locations and weighted edges represent people's movements between those locations, thus describing the entire mobility set flows within a city. Our solution is MoGAN, a model based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to generate realistic mobility networks. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets of bike and taxi rides to show that MoGAN outperforms the classical Gravity and Radiation models regarding the realism of the generated networks. Our model can be used for data augmentation and performing simulations and what-if analysis.

Coach2vec: autoencoding the playing style of soccer coaches

Capturing the playing style of professional soccer coaches is a complex, and yet barely explored, task in sports analytics. Nowadays, the availability of digital data describing every relevant spatio-temporal aspect of soccer matches, allows for capturing and analyzing the playing style of players, teams, and coaches in an automatic way. In this paper, we present coach2vec, a workflow to capture the playing style of professional coaches using match event streams and artificial intelligence. Coach2vec extracts ball possessions from each match, clusters them based on their similarity, and reconstructs the typical ball possessions of coaches. Then, it uses an autoencoder, a type of artificial neural network, to obtain a concise representation (encoding) of the playing style of each coach. Our experiments, conducted on soccer-logs describing the last four seasons of the Italian first division, reveal interesting similarities between prominent coaches, paving the road to the simulation of playing styles and the quantitative comparison of professional coaches.

Understanding peacefulness through the world news

Peacefulness is a principal dimension of well-being for all humankind and is the way out of inequity and every single form of violence. Thus, its measurement has lately drawn the attention of researchers and policy-makers. During the last years, novel digital data streams have drastically changed the research in this field. In the current study, we exploit information extracted from Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) digital news database, to capture peacefulness through the Global Peace Index (GPI). Applying predictive machine learning models, we demonstrate that news media attention from GDELT can be used as a proxy for measuring GPI at a monthly level. Additionally, we use the SHAP methodology to obtain the most important variables that drive the predictions. This analysis highlights each country's profile and provides explanations for the predictions overall, and particularly for the errors and the events that drive these errors. We believe that digital data exploited by Social Good researchers, policy-makers, and peace-builders, with data science tools as powerful as machine learning, could contribute to maximize the societal benefits and minimize the risks to peacefulness.

An interactive dashboard for searching and comparing soccer performance scores

The performance of soccer players is one of most discussed aspects by many actors in the soccer industry: from supporters to journalists, from coaches to talent scouts. Unfortunately, the dashboards available online provide no effective way to compare the evolution of the performance of players or to find players behaving similarly on the field. This paper describes the design of a web dashboard that interacts via APIs with a performance evaluation algorithm and provides graphical tools that allow the user to perform many tasks, such as to search or compare players by age, role or trend of growth in their performance, find similar players based on their pitching behavior, change the algorithm's parameters to obtain customized performance scores. We also describe an example of how a talent scout can interact with the dashboard to find young, promising talents.

Deep Gravity: enhancing mobility flows generation with deep neural networks and geographic information

The movements of individuals within and among cities influence key aspects of our society, such as the objective and subjective well-being, the diffusion of innovations, the spreading of epidemics, and the quality of the environment. For this reason, there is increasing interest around the challenging problem of flow generation, which consists in generating the flows between a set of geographic locations, given the characteristics of the locations and without any information about the real flows. Existing solutions to flow generation are mainly based on mechanistic approaches, such as the gravity model and the radiation model, which suffer from underfitting and overdispersion, neglect important variables such as land use and the transportation network, and cannot describe non-linear relationships between these variables. In this paper, we propose the Multi-Feature Deep Gravity (MFDG) model as an effective solution to flow generation. On the one hand, the MFDG model exploits a large number of variables (e.g., characteristics of land use and the road network; transport, food, and health facilities) extracted from voluntary geographic information data (OpenStreetMap). On the other hand, our model exploits deep neural networks to describe complex non-linear relationships between those variables. Our experiments, conducted on commuting flows in England, show that the MFDG model achieves a significant increase in the performance (up to 250\% for highly populated areas) than mechanistic models that do not use deep neural networks, or that do not exploit geographic voluntary data. Our work presents a precise definition of the flow generation problem, which is a novel task for the deep learning community working with spatio-temporal data, and proposes a deep neural network model that significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art statistical models.

Deep Learning for Human Mobility: a Survey on Data and Models

The study of human mobility is crucial due to its impact on several aspects of our society, such as disease spreading, urban planning, well-being, pollution, and more. The proliferation of digital mobility data, such as phone records, GPS traces, and social media posts, combined with the outstanding predictive power of artificial intelligence, triggered the application of deep learning to human mobility. In particular, the literature is focusing on three tasks: next-location prediction, i.e., predicting an individual's future locations; crowd flow prediction, i.e., forecasting flows on a geographic region; and trajectory generation, i.e., generating realistic individual trajectories. Existing surveys focus on single tasks, data sources, mechanistic or traditional machine learning approaches, while a comprehensive description of deep learning solutions is missing. This survey provides: (i) basic notions on mobility and deep learning; (ii) a review of data sources and public datasets; (iii) a description of deep learning models and (iv) a discussion about relevant open challenges. Our survey is a guide to the leading deep learning solutions to next-location prediction, crowd flow prediction, and trajectory generation. At the same time, it helps deep learning scientists and practitioners understand the fundamental concepts and the open challenges of the study of human mobility.