Follow the Leader: Documents on the Leading Edge of Semantic Change Get More Citations

Diachronic word embeddings offer remarkable insights into the evolution of language and provide a tool for quantifying socio-cultural change. However, while this method identifies words that have semantically shifted, it studies them in isolation; it does not facilitate the discovery of documents that lead or lag with respect to specific semantic innovations. In this paper, we propose a method to quantify the degree of semantic progressiveness in each usage. These usages can be aggregated to obtain scores for each document. We analyze two large collections of documents, representing legal opinions and scientific articles. Documents that are predicted to be semantically progressive receive a larger number of citations, indicating that they are especially influential. Our work thus provides a new technique for identifying lexical semantic leaders and demonstrates a new link between early adoption and influence in a citation network.

A Survey on Bias and Fairness in Machine Learning

With the widespread use of AI systems and applications in our everyday lives, it is important to take fairness issues into consideration while designing and engineering these types of systems. Such systems can be used in many sensitive environments to make important and life-changing decisions; thus, it is crucial to ensure that the decisions do not reflect discriminatory behavior toward certain groups or populations. We have recently seen work in machine learning, natural language processing, and deep learning that addresses such challenges in different subdomains. With the commercialization of these systems, researchers are becoming aware of the biases that these applications can contain and have attempted to address them. In this survey we investigated different real-world applications that have shown biases in various ways, and we listed different sources of biases that can affect AI applications. We then created a taxonomy for fairness definitions that machine learning researchers have defined in order to avoid the existing bias in AI systems. In addition to that, we examined different domains and subdomains in AI showing what researchers have observed with regard to unfair outcomes in the state-of-the-art methods and how they have tried to address them. There are still many future directions and solutions that can be taken to mitigate the problem of bias in AI systems. We are hoping that this survey will motivate researchers to tackle these issues in the near future by observing existing work in their respective fields.

MixHop: Higher-Order Graph Convolutional Architectures via Sparsified Neighborhood Mixing

Existing popular methods for semi-supervised learning with Graph Neural Networks (such as the Graph Convolutional Network) provably cannot learn a general class of neighborhood mixing relationships. To address this weakness, we propose a new model, MixHop, that can learn these relationships, including difference operators, by repeatedly mixing feature representations of neighbors at various distances. Mixhop requires no additional memory or computational complexity, and outperforms on challenging baselines. In addition, we propose sparsity regularization that allows us to visualize how the network prioritizes neighborhood information across different graph datasets. Our analysis of the learned architectures reveals that neighborhood mixing varies per datasets.

Discovering Hidden Structure in High Dimensional Human Behavioral Data via Tensor Factorization

In recent years, the rapid growth in technology has increased the opportunity for longitudinal human behavioral studies. Rich multimodal data, from wearables like Fitbit, online social networks, mobile phones etc. can be collected in natural environments. Uncovering the underlying low-dimensional structure of noisy multi-way data in an unsupervised setting is a challenging problem. Tensor factorization has been successful in extracting the interconnected low-dimensional descriptions of multi-way data. In this paper, we apply non-negative tensor factorization on a real-word wearable sensor data, StudentLife, to find latent temporal factors and group of similar individuals. Meta data is available for the semester schedule, as well as the individuals' performance and personality. We demonstrate that non-negative tensor factorization can successfully discover clusters of individuals who exhibit higher academic performance, as well as those who frequently engage in leisure activities. The recovered latent temporal patterns associated with these groups are validated against ground truth data to demonstrate the accuracy of our framework.

MixHop: Higher-Order Graph Convolution Architectures via Sparsified Neighborhood Mixing

Existing popular methods for semi-supervised learning with Graph Neural Networks (such as the Graph Convolutional Network) provably cannot learn a general class of neighborhood mixing relationships. To address this weakness, we propose a new model, MixHop, that can learn these relationships, including difference operators, by repeatedly mixing feature representations of neighbors at various distances. MixHop requires no additional memory or computational complexity, and outperforms on challenging baselines. In addition, we propose sparsity regularization that allows us to visualize how the network prioritizes neighborhood information across different graph datasets. Our analysis of the learned architectures reveals that neighborhood mixing varies per datasets.

Characterizing Activity on the Deep and Dark Web

The deep and darkweb (d2web) refers to limited access web sites that require registration, authentication, or more complex encryption protocols to access them. These web sites serve as hubs for a variety of illicit activities: to trade drugs, stolen user credentials, hacking tools, and to coordinate attacks and manipulation campaigns. Despite its importance to cyber crime, the d2web has not been systematically investigated. In this paper, we study a large corpus of messages posted to 80 d2web forums over a period of more than a year. We identify topics of discussion using LDA and use a non-parametric HMM to model the evolution of topics across forums. Then, we examine the dynamic patterns of discussion and identify forums with similar patterns. We show that our approach surfaces hidden similarities across different forums and can help identify anomalous events in this rich, heterogeneous data.

Tensor Embedding: A Supervised Framework for Human Behavioral Data Mining and Prediction

Today's densely instrumented world offers tremendous opportunities for continuous acquisition and analysis of multimodal sensor data providing temporal characterization of an individual's behaviors. Is it possible to efficiently couple such rich sensor data with predictive modeling techniques to provide contextual, and insightful assessments of individual performance and wellbeing? Prediction of different aspects of human behavior from these noisy, incomplete, and heterogeneous bio-behavioral temporal data is a challenging problem, beyond unsupervised discovery of latent structures. We propose a Supervised Tensor Embedding (STE) algorithm for high dimension multimodal data with join decomposition of input and target variable. Furthermore, we show that features selection will help to reduce the contamination in the prediction and increase the performance. The efficiently of the methods was tested via two different real world datasets.

Discovering Signals from Web Sources to Predict Cyber Attacks

Cyber attacks are growing in frequency and severity. Over the past year alone we have witnessed massive data breaches that stole personal information of millions of people and wide-scale ransomware attacks that paralyzed critical infrastructure of several countries. Combating the rising cyber threat calls for a multi-pronged strategy, which includes predicting when these attacks will occur. The intuition driving our approach is this: during the planning and preparation stages, hackers leave digital traces of their activities on both the surface web and dark web in the form of discussions on platforms like hacker forums, social media, blogs and the like. These data provide predictive signals that allow anticipating cyber attacks. In this paper, we describe machine learning techniques based on deep neural networks and autoregressive time series models that leverage external signals from publicly available Web sources to forecast cyber attacks. Performance of our framework across ground truth data over real-world forecasting tasks shows that our methods yield a significant lift or increase of F1 for the top signals on predicted cyber attacks. Our results suggest that, when deployed, our system will be able to provide an effective line of defense against various types of targeted cyber attacks.

Using Simpson's Paradox to Discover Interesting Patterns in Behavioral Data

We describe a data-driven discovery method that leverages Simpson's paradox to uncover interesting patterns in behavioral data. Our method systematically disaggregates data to identify subgroups within a population whose behavior deviates significantly from the rest of the population. Given an outcome of interest and a set of covariates, the method follows three steps. First, it disaggregates data into subgroups, by conditioning on a particular covariate, so as minimize the variation of the outcome within the subgroups. Next, it models the outcome as a linear function of another covariate, both in the subgroups and in the aggregate data. Finally, it compares trends to identify disaggregations that produce subgroups with different behaviors from the aggregate. We illustrate the method by applying it to three real-world behavioral datasets, including Q\&A site Stack Exchange and online learning platforms Khan Academy and Duolingo.

Predicting Cyber Events by Leveraging Hacker Sentiment

Recent high-profile cyber attacks exemplify why organizations need better cyber defenses. Cyber threats are hard to accurately predict because attackers usually try to mask their traces. However, they often discuss exploits and techniques on hacking forums. The community behavior of the hackers may provide insights into groups' collective malicious activity. We propose a novel approach to predict cyber events using sentiment analysis. We test our approach using cyber attack data from 2 major business organizations. We consider 3 types of events: malicious software installation, malicious destination visits, and malicious emails that surpassed the target organizations' defenses. We construct predictive signals by applying sentiment analysis on hacker forum posts to better understand hacker behavior. We analyze over 400K posts generated between January 2016 and January 2018 on over 100 hacking forums both on surface and Dark Web. We find that some forums have significantly more predictive power than others. Sentiment-based models that leverage specific forums can outperform state-of-the-art deep learning and time-series models on forecasting cyber attacks weeks ahead of the events.