Latent States in Neural Networks: Recovering the Temporal Structure of Drifting Data from Model Weights

A temporally drifting data stream may pass through discrete regimes rather than changing continuously. We ask whether such regimes are recoverable from the weights of models trained on the stream, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) fit to the chronologically ordered trajectory of those weights. We study this question in two domains known to drift over time: multimodal misinformation detection, using the Fakeddit dataset; and sentiment analysis, using the Yelp dataset. We train classifiers on consecutive temporal windows and fit an HMM to the trajectory of their aligned weights, recovering latent states that partition each timeline into coherent phases. On both datasets, classifiers generalize better to data from windows sharing the state of their training window than to windows across state boundaries. This within-state transfer advantage survives a control for temporal proximity and modestly exceeds the advantage recovered by a naive partition into contiguous states of equal size. Although the states are estimated solely from model weights, they correlate more strongly with shifts in the data's class distribution than with the weight-space geometry used to estimate them. After class divergence and lag are residualized out, the within-state advantage exceeds its permutation null on both tasks, indicating that the states recover structure relevant to transfer beyond the data distribution. Every effect replicates on both tasks but is attenuated on Yelp, whose label distribution is more temporally stable.

AfriSUD: A Dependency Treebank Collection for Evaluating Models on African Languages

Despite their linguistic diversity and global significance, African languages remain underrepresented in research and resources to support NLP. We aim to bridge this gap by introducing AfriSUD, the first large-scale collection of syntactically annotated treebanks for nine diverse African languages spanning major language families and regions across Sub-Saharan Africa. Using the Surface-Syntactic Universal Dependencies (SUD) framework, our community-led effort provides high-quality, native-speaker verified data that capture typological key features such as agglutination and tone. We evaluate a range of models on AfriSUD for part-of-speech tagging and dependency parsing including non-transformer baselines, multilingual pretrained encoders, and LLMs. Our results reveal a significant syntax gap, where models still show clear limitations across the nine languages, suggesting that existing architectures may not fully capture the structural diversity of African-language syntax.

Dependency Parsing Across the Resource Spectrum: Evaluating Architectures on High and Low-Resource Languages

Transformer-based models achieve state-of-the-art dependency parsing for high-resource languages, yet their advantage over simpler architectures in low-resource settings remains poorly understood. We evaluate four parsers -- the Biaffine LSTM, Stack-Pointer Network, AfroXLMR-large, and RemBERT -- across ten typologically diverse languages, with a focus on low-resource African languages. We find that the Biaffine LSTM consistently outperforms transformer models in low-resource regimes, with transformers recovering their advantage as training data increases. The crossover falls within a resource range typical of treebanks for under-resourced languages. Morphological complexity (measured via MATTR) emerges as a significant secondary predictor of transformers' relative disadvantage after controlling for corpus size. These results indicate that the Biaffine LSTM may be better suited for syntactic tool development in low-resource regimes until sufficient annotated data is available to leverage the representational capacity of pre-trained transformers.