CRAB: Assessing the Strength of Causal Relationships Between Real-world Events

Understanding narratives requires reasoning about the cause-and-effect relationships between events mentioned in the text. While existing foundation models yield impressive results in many NLP tasks requiring reasoning, it is unclear whether they understand the complexity of the underlying network of causal relationships of events in narratives. In this work, we present CRAB, a new Causal Reasoning Assessment Benchmark designed to evaluate causal understanding of events in real-world narratives. CRAB contains fine-grained, contextual causality annotations for ~2.7K pairs of real-world events that describe various newsworthy event timelines (e.g., the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk). Using CRAB, we measure the performance of several large language models, demonstrating that most systems achieve poor performance on the task. Motivated by classical causal principles, we also analyze the causal structures of groups of events in CRAB, and find that models perform worse on causal reasoning when events are derived from complex causal structures compared to simple linear causal chains. We make our dataset and code available to the research community.

Breaking the Language Barrier: Improving Cross-Lingual Reasoning with Structured Self-Attention

In this work, we study whether multilingual language models (MultiLMs) can transfer logical reasoning abilities to other languages when they are fine-tuned for reasoning in a different language. We evaluate the cross-lingual reasoning abilities of MultiLMs in two schemes: (1) where the language of the context and the question remain the same in the new languages that are tested (i.e., the reasoning is still monolingual, but the model must transfer the learned reasoning ability across languages), and (2) where the language of the context and the question is different (which we term code-switched reasoning). On two logical reasoning datasets, RuleTaker and LeapOfThought, we demonstrate that although MultiLMs can transfer reasoning ability across languages in a monolingual setting, they struggle to transfer reasoning abilities in a code-switched setting. Following this observation, we propose a novel attention mechanism that uses a dedicated set of parameters to encourage cross-lingual attention in code-switched sequences, which improves the reasoning performance by up to 14% and 4% on the RuleTaker and LeapOfThought datasets, respectively.

Stop Pre-Training: Adapt Visual-Language Models to Unseen Languages

Vision-Language Pre-training (VLP) has advanced the performance of many vision-language tasks, such as image-text retrieval, visual entailment, and visual reasoning. The pre-training mostly utilizes lexical databases and image queries in English. Previous work has demonstrated that the pre-training in English does not transfer well to other languages in a zero-shot setting. However, multilingual pre-trained language models (MPLM) have excelled at a variety of single-modal language tasks. In this paper, we propose a simple yet efficient approach to adapt VLP to unseen languages using MPLM. We utilize a cross-lingual contextualized token embeddings alignment approach to train text encoders for non-English languages. Our approach does not require image input and primarily uses machine translation, eliminating the need for target language data. Our evaluation across three distinct tasks (image-text retrieval, visual entailment, and natural language visual reasoning) demonstrates that this approach outperforms the state-of-the-art multilingual vision-language models without requiring large parallel corpora. Our code is available at https://github.com/Yasminekaroui/CliCoTea.

Revisiting Offline Compression: Going Beyond Factorization-based Methods for Transformer Language Models

Recent transformer language models achieve outstanding results in many natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, their enormous size often makes them impractical on memory-constrained devices, requiring practitioners to compress them to smaller networks. In this paper, we explore offline compression methods, meaning computationally-cheap approaches that do not require further fine-tuning of the compressed model. We challenge the classical matrix factorization methods by proposing a novel, better-performing autoencoder-based framework. We perform a comprehensive ablation study of our approach, examining its different aspects over a diverse set of evaluation settings. Moreover, we show that enabling collaboration between modules across layers by compressing certain modules together positively impacts the final model performance. Experiments on various NLP tasks demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms commonly used factorization-based offline compression methods.

Beyond S-curves: Recurrent Neural Networks for Technology Forecasting

Because of the considerable heterogeneity and complexity of the technological landscape, building accurate models to forecast is a challenging endeavor. Due to their high prevalence in many complex systems, S-curves are a popular forecasting approach in previous work. However, their forecasting performance has not been directly compared to other technology forecasting approaches. Additionally, recent developments in time series forecasting that claim to improve forecasting accuracy are yet to be applied to technological development data. This work addresses both research gaps by comparing the forecasting performance of S-curves to a baseline and by developing an autencoder approach that employs recent advances in machine learning and time series forecasting. S-curves forecasts largely exhibit a mean average percentage error (MAPE) comparable to a simple ARIMA baseline. However, for a minority of emerging technologies, the MAPE increases by two magnitudes. Our autoencoder approach improves the MAPE by 13.5% on average over the second-best result. It forecasts established technologies with the same accuracy as the other approaches. However, it is especially strong at forecasting emerging technologies with a mean MAPE 18% lower than the next best result. Our results imply that a simple ARIMA model is preferable over the S-curve for technology forecasting. Practitioners looking for more accurate forecasts should opt for the presented autoencoder approach.

An Efficient Active Learning Pipeline for Legal Text Classification

Active Learning (AL) is a powerful tool for learning with less labeled data, in particular, for specialized domains, like legal documents, where unlabeled data is abundant, but the annotation requires domain expertise and is thus expensive. Recent works have shown the effectiveness of AL strategies for pre-trained language models. However, most AL strategies require a set of labeled samples to start with, which is expensive to acquire. In addition, pre-trained language models have been shown unstable during fine-tuning with small datasets, and their embeddings are not semantically meaningful. In this work, we propose a pipeline for effectively using active learning with pre-trained language models in the legal domain. To this end, we leverage the available unlabeled data in three phases. First, we continue pre-training the model to adapt it to the downstream task. Second, we use knowledge distillation to guide the model's embeddings to a semantically meaningful space. Finally, we propose a simple, yet effective, strategy to find the initial set of labeled samples with fewer actions compared to existing methods. Our experiments on Contract-NLI, adapted to the classification task, and LEDGAR benchmarks show that our approach outperforms standard AL strategies, and is more efficient. Furthermore, our pipeline reaches comparable results to the fully-supervised approach with a small performance gap, and dramatically reduced annotation cost. Code and the adapted data will be made available.

Efficient Integration of Multi-Order Dynamics and Internal Dynamics in Stock Movement Prediction

Advances in deep neural network (DNN) architectures have enabled new prediction techniques for stock market data. Unlike other multivariate time-series data, stock markets show two unique characteristics: (i) \emph{multi-order dynamics}, as stock prices are affected by strong non-pairwise correlations (e.g., within the same industry); and (ii) \emph{internal dynamics}, as each individual stock shows some particular behaviour. Recent DNN-based methods capture multi-order dynamics using hypergraphs, but rely on the Fourier basis in the convolution, which is both inefficient and ineffective. In addition, they largely ignore internal dynamics by adopting the same model for each stock, which implies a severe information loss. In this paper, we propose a framework for stock movement prediction to overcome the above issues. Specifically, the framework includes temporal generative filters that implement a memory-based mechanism onto an LSTM network in an attempt to learn individual patterns per stock. Moreover, we employ hypergraph attentions to capture the non-pairwise correlations. Here, using the wavelet basis instead of the Fourier basis, enables us to simplify the message passing and focus on the localized convolution. Experiments with US market data over six years show that our framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of profit and stability. Our source code and data are available at \url{https://github.com/thanhtrunghuynh93/estimate}.

Discovering Language-neutral Sub-networks in Multilingual Language Models

Multilingual pre-trained language models perform remarkably well on cross-lingual transfer for downstream tasks. Despite their impressive performance, our understanding of their language neutrality (i.e., the extent to which they use shared representations to encode similar phenomena across languages) and its role in achieving such performance remain open questions. In this work, we conceptualize language neutrality of multilingual models as a function of the overlap between language-encoding sub-networks of these models. Using mBERT as a foundation, we employ the lottery ticket hypothesis to discover sub-networks that are individually optimized for various languages and tasks. Using three distinct tasks and eleven typologically-diverse languages in our evaluation, we show that the sub-networks found for different languages are in fact quite similar, supporting the idea that mBERT jointly encodes multiple languages in shared parameters. We conclude that mBERT is comprised of a language-neutral sub-network shared among many languages, along with multiple ancillary language-specific sub-networks, with the former playing a more prominent role in mBERT's impressive cross-lingual performance.

From Scattered Sources to Comprehensive Technology Landscape: A Recommendation-based Retrieval Approach

Mapping the technology landscape is crucial for market actors to take informed investment decisions. However, given the large amount of data on the Web and its subsequent information overload, manually retrieving information is a seemingly ineffective and incomplete approach. In this work, we propose an end-to-end recommendation based retrieval approach to support automatic retrieval of technologies and their associated companies from raw Web data. This is a two-task setup involving (i) technology classification of entities extracted from company corpus, and (ii) technology and company retrieval based on classified technologies. Our proposed framework approaches the first task by leveraging DistilBERT which is a state-of-the-art language model. For the retrieval task, we introduce a recommendation-based retrieval technique to simultaneously support retrieving related companies, technologies related to a specific company and companies relevant to a technology. To evaluate these tasks, we also construct a data set that includes company documents and entities extracted from these documents together with company categories and technology labels. Experiments show that our approach is able to return 4 times more relevant companies while outperforming traditional retrieval baseline in retrieving technologies.

SciClops: Detecting and Contextualizing Scientific Claims for Assisting Manual Fact-Checking

This paper describes SciClops, a method to help combat online scientific misinformation. Although automated fact-checking methods have gained significant attention recently, they require pre-existing ground-truth evidence, which, in the scientific context, is sparse and scattered across a constantly-evolving scientific literature. Existing methods do not exploit this literature, which can effectively contextualize and combat science-related fallacies. Furthermore, these methods rarely require human intervention, which is essential for the convoluted and critical domain of scientific misinformation. SciClops involves three main steps to process scientific claims found in online news articles and social media postings: extraction, clustering, and contextualization. First, the extraction of scientific claims takes place using a domain-specific, fine-tuned transformer model. Second, similar claims extracted from heterogeneous sources are clustered together with related scientific literature using a method that exploits their content and the connections among them. Third, check-worthy claims, broadcasted by popular yet unreliable sources, are highlighted together with an enhanced fact-checking context that includes related verified claims, news articles, and scientific papers. Extensive experiments show that SciClops tackles sufficiently these three steps, and effectively assists non-expert fact-checkers in the verification of complex scientific claims, outperforming commercial fact-checking systems.