A Staged Approach using Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification to Predict the Risk of Hip Fracture

Despite advancements in medical care, hip fractures impose a significant burden on individuals and healthcare systems. This paper focuses on the prediction of hip fracture risk in older and middle-aged adults, where falls and compromised bone quality are predominant factors. We propose a novel staged model that combines advanced imaging and clinical data to improve predictive performance. By using CNNs to extract features from hip DXA images, along with clinical variables, shape measurements, and texture features, our method provides a comprehensive framework for assessing fracture risk. A staged machine learning-based model was developed using two ensemble models: Ensemble 1 (clinical variables only) and Ensemble 2 (clinical variables and DXA imaging features). This staged approach used uncertainty quantification from Ensemble 1 to decide if DXA features are necessary for further prediction. Ensemble 2 exhibited the highest performance, achieving an AUC of 0.9541, an accuracy of 0.9195, a sensitivity of 0.8078, and a specificity of 0.9427. The staged model also performed well, with an AUC of 0.8486, an accuracy of 0.8611, a sensitivity of 0.5578, and a specificity of 0.9249, outperforming Ensemble 1, which had an AUC of 0.5549, an accuracy of 0.7239, a sensitivity of 0.1956, and a specificity of 0.8343. Furthermore, the staged model suggested that 54.49% of patients did not require DXA scanning. It effectively balanced accuracy and specificity, offering a robust solution when DXA data acquisition is not always feasible. Statistical tests confirmed significant differences between the models, highlighting the advantages of the advanced modeling strategies. Our staged approach could identify individuals at risk with a high accuracy but reduce the unnecessary DXA scanning. It has great promise to guide interventions to prevent hip fractures with reduced cost and radiation.

A Deep Learning-Based Method for Automatic Segmentation of Proximal Femur from Quantitative Computed Tomography Images

Purpose: Proximal femur image analyses based on quantitative computed tomography (QCT) provide a method to quantify the bone density and evaluate osteoporosis and risk of fracture. We aim to develop a deep-learning-based method for automatic proximal femur segmentation. Methods and Materials: We developed a 3D image segmentation method based on V-Net, an end-to-end fully convolutional neural network (CNN), to extract the proximal femur QCT images automatically. The proposed V-net methodology adopts a compound loss function, which includes a Dice loss and a L2 regularizer. We performed experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed segmentation method. In the experiments, a QCT dataset which included 397 QCT subjects was used. For the QCT image of each subject, the ground truth for the proximal femur was delineated by a well-trained scientist. During the experiments for the entire cohort then for male and female subjects separately, 90% of the subjects were used in 10-fold cross-validation for training and internal validation, and to select the optimal parameters of the proposed models; the rest of the subjects were used to evaluate the performance of models. Results: Visual comparison demonstrated high agreement between the model prediction and ground truth contours of the proximal femur portion of the QCT images. In the entire cohort, the proposed model achieved a Dice score of 0.9815, a sensitivity of 0.9852 and a specificity of 0.9992. In addition, an R2 score of 0.9956 (p<0.001) was obtained when comparing the volumes measured by our model prediction with the ground truth. Conclusion: This method shows a great promise for clinical application to QCT and QCT-based finite element analysis of the proximal femur for evaluating osteoporosis and hip fracture risk.