Meituan Merchant Business Diagnosis via Policy-Guided Dual-Process User Simulation

Simulating group-level user behavior enables scalable counterfactual evaluation of merchant strategies without costly online experiments. However, building a trustworthy simulator faces two structural challenges. First, information incompleteness causes reasoning-based simulators to over-rationalize when unobserved factors such as offline context and implicit habits are missing. Second, mechanism duality requires capturing both interpretable preferences and implicit statistical regularities, which no single paradigm achieves alone. We propose Policy-Guided Hybrid Simulation (PGHS), a dual-process framework that mines transferable decision policies from behavioral trajectories and uses them as a shared alignment layer. This layer anchors an LLM-based reasoning branch that prevents over-rationalization and an ML-based fitting branch that absorbs implicit regularities. Group-level predictions from both branches are fused for complementary correction. We deploy PGHS on Meituan with 101 merchants and over 26,000 trajectories. PGHS achieves a group simulation error of 8.80%, improving over the best reasoning-based and fitting-based baselines by 45.8% and 40.9% respectively.

A Task-oriented Dialog Model with Task-progressive and Policy-aware Pre-training

Pre-trained conversation models (PCMs) have achieved promising progress in recent years. However, existing PCMs for Task-oriented dialog (TOD) are insufficient for capturing the sequential nature of the TOD-related tasks, as well as for learning dialog policy information. To alleviate these problems, this paper proposes a task-progressive PCM with two policy-aware pre-training tasks. The model is pre-trained through three stages where TOD-related tasks are progressively employed according to the task logic of the TOD system. A global policy consistency task is designed to capture the multi-turn dialog policy sequential relation, and an act-based contrastive learning task is designed to capture similarities among samples with the same dialog policy. Our model achieves better results on both MultiWOZ and In-Car end-to-end dialog modeling benchmarks with only 18\% parameters and 25\% pre-training data compared to the previous state-of-the-art PCM, GALAXY.