Predicting Causal Effects from Natural Language Queries using Structured Representations

Randomized controlled trials are a cornerstone of medicine and the social sciences as they enable reliable estimates of causal effects. However, they are costly and time-consuming to conduct, motivating interest in predicting causal effects from existing experimental evidence. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance on knowledge-intensive tasks, raising the question of whether these models can be used for forecasting causal effect sizes. To investigate this, we introduce Query2Effect, a new large-scale benchmark consisting of more than 72,000 natural language questions aligned with experiment descriptions, created to simulate realistic information-seeking scenarios by varying query specificity along dimensions of implicitness, abstraction, and ambiguity. We then propose a two-step framework that first generates a synthetic structured representation of a query before predicting effect size using a supervised encoder model. Experiments show that finetuning plays a crucial role in improving prediction performance, with absolute error reducing by -27% up to -71% compared to prompted out-of-the-box LLMs, and that our two-step framework is beneficial for out-of-domain generalization, highlighting the benefits of separating semantic interpretation from numerical effect estimation.

Interpretable Coreference Resolution Evaluation Using Explicit Semantics

Coreference resolution is typically evaluated using aggregate statistical metrics such as CoNLL-F1, which measure structural overlap between predicted and gold clusters. While widely used, these metrics offer limited diagnostic insights, penalizing errors without revealing whether a system struggles with specific semantic categories, such as people, locations, or events, and making it difficult to interpret model capabilities or derive actionable improvements. We address this gap by introducing a semantically-enhanced evaluation framework for coreference resolution. Our approach overlays Concept and Named Entity Recognition (CNER) onto coreference outputs, assigning semantic labels to nominal mentions and propagating them to entire coreference clusters. This enables the computation of typed scores aimed at evaluating mention extraction and linking capabilities stratified by semantic class. Across our experiments on OntoNotes, LitBank, and PreCo, we show that our framework uncovers systematic weaknesses that remain obscured by aggregate metrics. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these diagnostics can be used to design targeted, low-cost data augmentation strategies, achieving measurable out-of-domain improvements.

BOOKCOREF: Coreference Resolution at Book Scale

Coreference Resolution systems are typically evaluated on benchmarks containing small- to medium-scale documents. When it comes to evaluating long texts, however, existing benchmarks, such as LitBank, remain limited in length and do not adequately assess system capabilities at the book scale, i.e., when co-referring mentions span hundreds of thousands of tokens. To fill this gap, we first put forward a novel automatic pipeline that produces high-quality Coreference Resolution annotations on full narrative texts. Then, we adopt this pipeline to create the first book-scale coreference benchmark, BOOKCOREF, with an average document length of more than 200,000 tokens. We carry out a series of experiments showing the robustness of our automatic procedure and demonstrating the value of our resource, which enables current long-document coreference systems to gain up to +20 CoNLL-F1 points when evaluated on full books. Moreover, we report on the new challenges introduced by this unprecedented book-scale setting, highlighting that current models fail to deliver the same performance they achieve on smaller documents. We release our data and code to encourage research and development of new book-scale Coreference Resolution systems at https://github.com/sapienzanlp/bookcoref.

Maverick: Efficient and Accurate Coreference Resolution Defying Recent Trends

Large autoregressive generative models have emerged as the cornerstone for achieving the highest performance across several Natural Language Processing tasks. However, the urge to attain superior results has, at times, led to the premature replacement of carefully designed task-specific approaches without exhaustive experimentation. The Coreference Resolution task is no exception; all recent state-of-the-art solutions adopt large generative autoregressive models that outperform encoder-based discriminative systems. In this work,we challenge this recent trend by introducing Maverick, a carefully designed - yet simple - pipeline, which enables running a state-of-the-art Coreference Resolution system within the constraints of an academic budget, outperforming models with up to 13 billion parameters with as few as 500 million parameters. Maverick achieves state-of-the-art performance on the CoNLL-2012 benchmark, training with up to 0.006x the memory resources and obtaining a 170x faster inference compared to previous state-of-the-art systems. We extensively validate the robustness of the Maverick framework with an array of diverse experiments, reporting improvements over prior systems in data-scarce, long-document, and out-of-domain settings. We release our code and models for research purposes at https://github.com/SapienzaNLP/maverick-coref.