Gravity-Informed Deep Learning Framework for Predicting Ship Traffic Flow and Invasion Risk of Non-Indigenous Species via Ballast Water Discharge

Invasive species in water bodies pose a major threat to the environment and biodiversity globally. Due to increased transportation and trade, non-native species have been introduced to new environments, causing damage to ecosystems and leading to economic losses in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Therefore, there is a pressing need for risk assessment and management techniques to mitigate the impact of these invasions. This study aims to develop a new physics-inspired model to forecast maritime shipping traffic and thus inform risk assessment of invasive species spread through global transportation networks. Inspired by the gravity model for international trades, our model considers various factors that influence the likelihood and impact of vessel activities, such as shipping flux density, distance between ports, trade flow, and centrality measures of transportation hubs. Additionally, by analyzing the risk network of invasive species, we provide a comprehensive framework for assessing the invasion threat level given a pair of origin and destination. Accordingly, this paper introduces transformers to gravity models to rebuild the short- and long-term dependencies that make the risk analysis feasible. Thus, we introduce a physics-inspired framework that achieves an 89% segmentation accuracy for existing and non-existing trajectories and an 84.8% accuracy for the number of vessels flowing between key port areas, representing more than 10% improvement over the traditional deep-gravity model. Along these lines, this research contributes to a better understanding of invasive species risk assessment. It allows policymakers, conservationists, and stakeholders to prioritize management actions by identifying high-risk invasion pathways. Besides, our model is versatile and can include new data sources, making it suitable for assessing species invasion risks in a changing global landscape.

Building a Safer Maritime Environment Through Multi-Path Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Forecasting

Maritime transport is paramount to global economic growth and environmental sustainability. In this regard, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays a significant role by offering real-time streaming data on vessel movement, which allows for enhanced traffic surveillance, assisting in vessel safety by avoiding vessel-to-vessel collisions and proactively preventing vessel-to-whale ones. This paper tackles an intrinsic problem to trajectory forecasting: the effective multi-path long-term vessel trajectory forecasting on engineered sequences of AIS data. We utilize an encoder-decoder model with Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (Bi-LSTM) to predict the next 12 hours of vessel trajectories using 1 to 3 hours of AIS data. We feed the model with probabilistic features engineered from the AIS data that refer to the potential route and destination of each trajectory so that the model, leveraging convolutional layers for spatial feature learning and a position-aware attention mechanism that increases the importance of recent timesteps of a sequence during temporal feature learning, forecasts the vessel trajectory taking the potential route and destination into account. The F1 Score of these features is approximately 85% and 75%, indicating their efficiency in supplementing the neural network. We trialed our model in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, one of the North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) habitats, achieving an R2 score exceeding 98% with varying techniques and features. Despite the high R2 score being attributed to well-defined shipping lanes, our model demonstrates superior complex decision-making during path selection. In addition, our model shows enhanced accuracy, with average and median forecasting errors of 11km and 6km, respectively. Our study confirms the potential of geographical data engineering and trajectory forecasting models for preserving marine life species.

A semi-supervised geometric-driven methodology for supervised fishing activity detection on multi-source AIS tracking messages

Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages are useful for tracking vessel activity across oceans worldwide using radio links and satellite transceivers. Such data plays a significant role in tracking vessel activity and mapping mobility patterns such as those found in fishing. Accordingly, this paper proposes a geometric-driven semi-supervised approach for fishing activity detection from AIS data. Through the proposed methodology we show how to explore the information included in the messages to extract features describing the geometry of the vessel route. To this end, we leverage the unsupervised nature of cluster analysis to label the trajectory geometry highlighting the changes in the vessel's moving pattern which tends to indicate fishing activity. The labels obtained by the proposed unsupervised approach are used to detect fishing activities, which we approach as a time-series classification task. In this context, we propose a solution using recurrent neural networks on AIS data streams with roughly 87% of the overall $F$-score on the whole trajectories of 50 different unseen fishing vessels. Such results are accompanied by a broad benchmark study assessing the performance of different Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architectures. In conclusion, this work contributes by proposing a thorough process that includes data preparation, labeling, data modeling, and model validation. Therefore, we present a novel solution for mobility pattern detection that relies upon unfolding the trajectory in time and observing their inherent geometry.

From Cities to Series: Complex Networks and Deep Learning for Improved Spatial and Temporal Analytics*

Graphs have often been used to answer questions about the interaction between real-world entities by taking advantage of their capacity to represent complex topologies. Complex networks are known to be graphs that capture such non-trivial topologies; they are able to represent human phenomena such as epidemic processes, the dynamics of populations, and the urbanization of cities. The investigation of complex networks has been extrapolated to many fields of science, with particular emphasis on computing techniques, including artificial intelligence. In such a case, the analysis of the interaction between entities of interest is transposed to the internal learning of algorithms, a paradigm whose investigation is able to expand the state of the art in Computer Science. By exploring this paradigm, this thesis puts together complex networks and machine learning techniques to improve the understanding of the human phenomena observed in pandemics, pendular migration, and street networks. Accordingly, we contribute with: (i) a new neural network architecture capable of modeling dynamic processes observed in spatial and temporal data with applications in epidemics propagation, weather forecasting, and patient monitoring in intensive care units; (ii) a machine-learning methodology for analyzing and predicting links in the scope of human mobility between all the cities of Brazil; and, (iii) techniques for identifying inconsistencies in the urban planning of cities while tracking the most influential vertices, with applications over Brazilian and worldwide cities. We obtained results sustained by sound evidence of advances to the state of the art in artificial intelligence, rigorous formalisms, and ample experimentation. Our findings rely upon real-world applications in a range of domains, demonstrating the applicability of our methodologies.

Unfolding collective AIS transmission behavior for vessel movement modeling on irregular timing data using noise-robust neural networks

This paper aims to model the Automatic Identification System (AIS) message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting the upcoming AIS messages' content for multiple vessels simultaneously in the face of messages' irregular timing. We present a set of experiments comprising tens of algorithms used for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models revealed themselves to adequately capture the temporal irregularity while preserving the spatial awareness of different vessels. We show how a multi-directional and multi-layer long-short-term memory network and a convolution feature-extraction layer improve such a task by up to 20.01%.

DropLeaf: a precision farming smartphone application for measuring pesticide spraying methods

Pesticide application has been heavily used in the cultivation of major crops, contributing to the increase of crop production over the past decades. However, their appropriate use and calibration of machines rely upon evaluation methodologies that can precisely estimate how well the pesticides' spraying covered the crops. A few strategies have been proposed in former works, yet their elevated costs and low portability do not permit their wide adoption. This work introduces and experimentally assesses a novel tool that functions over a smartphone-based mobile application, named DropLeaf - Spraying Meter. Tests performed using DropLeaf demonstrated that, notwithstanding its versatility, it can estimate the pesticide spraying with high precision. Our methodology is based on image analysis, and the assessment of spraying deposition measures is performed successfully over real and synthetic water-sensitive papers. The proposed tool can be extensively used by farmers and agronomists furnished with regular smartphones, improving the utilization of pesticides with well-being, ecological, and monetary advantages. DropLeaf can be easily used for spray drift assessment of different methods, including emerging UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) sprayers.

Pay Attention to Evolution: Time Series Forecasting with Deep Graph-Evolution Learning

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in predictive analysis. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods as they generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Patient trajectory prediction in the Mimic-III dataset, challenges and pitfalls

Automated medical prognosis has gained interest as artificial intelligence evolves and the potential for computer-aided medicine becomes evident. Nevertheless, it is challenging to design an effective system that, given a patient's medical history, is able to predict probable future conditions. Previous works, mostly carried out over private datasets, have tackled the problem by using artificial neural network architectures that cannot deal with low-cardinality datasets, or by means of non-generalizable inference approaches. We introduce a Deep Learning architecture whose design results from an intensive experimental process. The final architecture is based on two parallel Minimal Gated Recurrent Unit networks working in bi-directional manner, which was extensively tested with the open-access Mimic-III dataset. Our results demonstrate significant improvements in automated medical prognosis, as measured with Recall@k. We summarize our experience as a set of relevant insights for the design of Deep Learning architectures. Our work improves the performance of computer-aided medicine and can serve as a guide in designing artificial neural networks used in prediction tasks.

Reconstructing commuters network using machine learning and urban indicators

Human mobility has a significant impact on several layers of society, from infrastructural planning and economics to the spread of diseases and crime. Representing the system as a complex network, in which nodes are assigned to regions (e.g., a city) and links indicate the flow of people between two of them, physics-inspired models have been proposed to quantify the number of people migrating from one city to the other. Despite the advances made by these models, our ability to predict the number of commuters and reconstruct mobility networks remains limited. Here, we propose an alternative approach using machine learning and 22 urban indicators to predict the flow of people and reconstruct the intercity commuters network. Our results reveal that predictions based on machine learning algorithms and urban indicators can reconstruct the commuters network with 90.4% of accuracy and describe 77.6% of the variance observed in the flow of people between cities. We also identify essential features to recover the network structure and the urban indicators mostly related to commuting patterns. As previously reported, distance plays a significant role in commuting, but other indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate, are also driven-forces for people to commute. We believe that our results shed new lights on the modeling of migration and reinforce the role of urban indicators on commuting patterns. Also, because link-prediction and network reconstruction are still open challenges in network science, our results have implications in other areas, like economics, social sciences, and biology, where node attributes can give us information about the existence of links connecting entities in the network.