Predictive Churn with the Set of Good Models

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Rashomon Capacity: A Metric for Predictive Multiplicity in Probabilistic Classification

Predictive multiplicity occurs when classification models with nearly indistinguishable average performances assign conflicting predictions to individual samples. When used for decision-making in applications of consequence (e.g., lending, education, criminal justice), models developed without regard for predictive multiplicity may result in unjustified and arbitrary decisions for specific individuals. We introduce a new measure of predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification called Rashomon Capacity. Prior metrics for predictive multiplicity focus on classifiers that output thresholded (i.e., 0-1) predicted classes. In contrast, Rashomon Capacity applies to probabilistic classifiers, capturing more nuanced score variations for individual samples. We provide a rigorous derivation for Rashomon Capacity, argue its intuitive appeal, and demonstrate how to estimate it in practice. We show that Rashomon Capacity yields principled strategies for disclosing conflicting models to stakeholders. Our numerical experiments illustrate how Rashomon Capacity captures predictive multiplicity in various datasets and learning models, including neural networks. The tools introduced in this paper can help data scientists measure, report, and ultimately resolve predictive multiplicity prior to model deployment.

Obfuscation via Information Density Estimation

Identifying features that leak information about sensitive attributes is a key challenge in the design of information obfuscation mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a framework to identify information-leaking features via information density estimation. Here, features whose information densities exceed a pre-defined threshold are deemed information-leaking features. Once these features are identified, we sequentially pass them through a targeted obfuscation mechanism with a provable leakage guarantee in terms of $\mathsf{E}_\gamma$-divergence. The core of this mechanism relies on a data-driven estimate of the trimmed information density for which we propose a novel estimator, named the trimmed information density estimator (TIDE). We then use TIDE to implement our mechanism on three real-world datasets. Our approach can be used as a data-driven pipeline for designing obfuscation mechanisms targeting specific features.

Predictive Multiplicity in Classification

In the context of machine learning, a prediction problem exhibits predictive multiplicity if there exist several "good" models that attain identical or near-identical performance (i.e., accuracy, AUC, etc.). In this paper, we study the effects of multiplicity in human-facing applications, such as credit scoring and recidivism prediction. We introduce a specific notion of multiplicity -- predictive multiplicity -- to describe the existence of good models that output conflicting predictions. Unlike existing notions of multiplicity (e.g., the Rashomon effect), predictive multiplicity reflects irreconcilable differences in the predictions of models with comparable performance, and presents new challenges for common practices such as model selection and local explanation. We propose measures to evaluate the predictive multiplicity in classification problems. We present integer programming methods to compute these measures for a given datasets by solving empirical risk minimization problems with discrete constraints. We demonstrate how these tools can inform stakeholders on a large collection of recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world prediction problems often admit many good models that output wildly conflicting predictions, and support the need to report predictive multiplicity in model development.

Optimized Score Transformation for Fair Classification

This paper considers fair probabilistic classification where the outputs of primary interest are predicted probabilities, commonly referred to as scores. We formulate the problem of transforming scores to satisfy fairness constraints that are linear in conditional means of scores while minimizing the loss in utility. The same formulation can be applied both to post-process classifier outputs as well as to pre-process training data. We derive a closed-form expression for the optimal transformed scores and a convex optimization problem for the transformation parameters. In the population limit, the transformed score function is the fairness-constrained minimizer of cross-entropy with respect to the optimal unconstrained scores. In the finite sample setting, we propose to approach this solution using a combination of standard probabilistic classifiers and ADMM. Comprehensive experiments show that the proposed \mname has advantages for score-based metrics such as Brier score and AUC while remaining competitive for binary label-based metrics such as accuracy.