Assessing the Robustness of Intelligence-Driven Reinforcement Learning

Robustness to noise is of utmost importance in reinforcement learning systems, particularly in military contexts where high stakes and uncertain environments prevail. Noise and uncertainty are inherent features of military operations, arising from factors such as incomplete information, adversarial actions, or unpredictable battlefield conditions. In RL, noise can critically impact decision-making, mission success, and the safety of personnel. Reward machines offer a powerful tool to express complex reward structures in RL tasks, enabling the design of tailored reinforcement signals that align with mission objectives. This paper considers the problem of the robustness of intelligence-driven reinforcement learning based on reward machines. The preliminary results presented suggest the need for further research in evidential reasoning and learning to harden current state-of-the-art reinforcement learning approaches before being mission-critical-ready.

Knowledge from Uncertainty in Evidential Deep Learning

This work reveals an evidential signal that emerges from the uncertainty value in Evidential Deep Learning (EDL). EDL is one example of a class of uncertainty-aware deep learning approaches designed to provide confidence (or epistemic uncertainty) about the current test sample. In particular for computer vision and bidirectional encoder large language models, the `evidential signal' arising from the Dirichlet strength in EDL can, in some cases, discriminate between classes, which is particularly strong when using large language models. We hypothesise that the KL regularisation term causes EDL to couple aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we empirically investigate the correlations between misclassification and evaluated uncertainty, and show that EDL's `evidential signal' is due to misclassification bias. We critically evaluate EDL with other Dirichlet-based approaches, namely Generative Evidential Neural Networks (EDL-GEN) and Prior Networks, and show theoretically and empirically the differences between these loss functions. We conclude that EDL's coupling of uncertainty arises from these differences due to the use (or lack) of out-of-distribution samples during training.

Sound-skwatter (Did You Mean: Sound-squatter?) AI-powered Generator for Phishing Prevention

Sound-squatting is a phishing attack that tricks users into malicious resources by exploiting similarities in the pronunciation of words. Proactive defense against sound-squatting candidates is complex, and existing solutions rely on manually curated lists of homophones. We here introduce Sound-skwatter, a multi-language AI-based system that generates sound-squatting candidates for proactive defense. Sound-skwatter relies on an innovative multi-modal combination of Transformers Networks and acoustic models to learn sound similarities. We show that Sound-skwatter can automatically list known homophones and thousands of high-quality candidates. In addition, it covers cross-language sound-squatting, i.e., when the reader and the listener speak different languages, supporting any combination of languages. We apply Sound-skwatter to network-centric phishing via squatted domain names. We find ~ 10% of the generated domains exist in the wild, the vast majority unknown to protection solutions. Next, we show attacks on the PyPI package manager, where ~ 17% of the popular packages have at least one existing candidate. We believe Sound-skwatter is a crucial asset to mitigate the sound-squatting phenomenon proactively on the Internet. To increase its impact, we publish an online demo and release our models and code as open source.

On Temporal References in Emergent Communication

As humans, we use linguistic elements referencing time, such as before or tomorrow, to easily share past experiences and future predictions. While temporal aspects of the language have been considered in computational linguistics, no such exploration has been done within the field of emergent communication. We research this gap, providing the first reported temporal vocabulary within emergent communication literature. Our experimental analysis shows that a different agent architecture is sufficient for the natural emergence of temporal references, and that no additional losses are necessary. Our readily transferable architectural insights provide the basis for the incorporation of temporal referencing into other emergent communication environments.

Research Note on Uncertain Probabilities and Abstract Argumentation

The sixth assessment of the international panel on climate change (IPCC) states that "cumulative net CO2 emissions over the last decade (2010-2019) are about the same size as the 11 remaining carbon budget likely to limit warming to 1.5C (medium confidence)." Such reports directly feed the public discourse, but nuances such as the degree of belief and of confidence are often lost. In this paper, we propose a formal account for allowing such degrees of belief and the associated confidence to be used to label arguments in abstract argumentation settings. Differently from other proposals in probabilistic argumentation, we focus on the task of probabilistic inference over a chosen query building upon Sato's distribution semantics which has been already shown to encompass a variety of cases including the semantics of Bayesian networks. Borrowing from the vast literature on such semantics, we examine how such tasks can be dealt with in practice when considering uncertain probabilities, and discuss the connections with existing proposals for probabilistic argumentation.

SOLBP: Second-Order Loopy Belief Propagation for Inference in Uncertain Bayesian Networks

In second-order uncertain Bayesian networks, the conditional probabilities are only known within distributions, i.e., probabilities over probabilities. The delta-method has been applied to extend exact first-order inference methods to propagate both means and variances through sum-product networks derived from Bayesian networks, thereby characterizing epistemic uncertainty, or the uncertainty in the model itself. Alternatively, second-order belief propagation has been demonstrated for polytrees but not for general directed acyclic graph structures. In this work, we extend Loopy Belief Propagation to the setting of second-order Bayesian networks, giving rise to Second-Order Loopy Belief Propagation (SOLBP). For second-order Bayesian networks, SOLBP generates inferences consistent with those generated by sum-product networks, while being more computationally efficient and scalable.

Uncertain Bayesian Networks: Learning from Incomplete Data

When the historical data are limited, the conditional probabilities associated with the nodes of Bayesian networks are uncertain and can be empirically estimated. Second order estimation methods provide a framework for both estimating the probabilities and quantifying the uncertainty in these estimates. We refer to these cases as uncer tain or second-order Bayesian networks. When such data are complete, i.e., all variable values are observed for each instantiation, the conditional probabilities are known to be Dirichlet-distributed. This paper improves the current state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks by enabling them to learn distributions for their parameters, i.e., conditional probabilities, with incomplete data. We extensively evaluate various methods to learn the posterior of the parameters through the desired and empirically derived strength of confidence bounds for various queries.

Using DeepProbLog to perform Complex Event Processing on an Audio Stream

In this paper, we present an approach to Complex Event Processing (CEP) that is based on DeepProbLog. This approach has the following objectives: (i) allowing the use of subsymbolic data as an input, (ii) retaining the flexibility and modularity on the definitions of complex event rules, (iii) allowing the system to be trained in an end-to-end manner and (iv) being robust against noisily labelled data. Our approach makes use of DeepProbLog to create a neuro-symbolic architecture that combines a neural network to process the subsymbolic data with a probabilistic logic layer to allow the user to define the rules for the complex events. We demonstrate that our approach is capable of detecting complex events from an audio stream. We also demonstrate that our approach is capable of training even with a dataset that has a moderate proportion of noisy data.

Fudge: A light-weight solver for abstract argumentation based on SAT reductions

We present Fudge, an abstract argumentation solver that tightly integrates satisfiability solving technology to solve a series of abstract argumentation problems. While most of the encodings used by Fudge derive from standard translation approaches, Fudge makes use of completely novel encodings to solve the skeptical reasoning problem wrt. preferred semantics and problems wrt. ideal semantics.

Handling Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainties in Probabilistic Circuits

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for probabilistic reasoning in order to determine the confidence (or epistemic uncertainty) in the probabilities in light of the training data. We propose an approach to overcome the independence assumption behind most of the approaches dealing with a large class of probabilistic reasoning that includes Bayesian networks as well as several instances of probabilistic logic. We provide an algorithm for Bayesian learning from sparse, albeit complete, observations, and for deriving inferences and their confidences keeping track of the dependencies between variables when they are manipulated within the unifying computational formalism provided by probabilistic circuits. Each leaf of such circuits is labelled with a beta-distributed random variable that provides us with an elegant framework for representing uncertain probabilities. We achieve better estimation of epistemic uncertainty than state-of-the-art approaches, including highly engineered ones, while being able to handle general circuits and with just a modest increase in the computational effort compared to using point probabilities.