Eliciting associations between clinical variables from LLMs via comparison questions across populations

The training data of large language models (LLMs) comprises a wide range of biomedical literature, reflecting data from many different patient populations. We investigate how it might be possible to recover information on correlation and causal links between patient characteristics, as a key building block for medical decision making. To avoid the pitfalls of direct elicitation, we propose an approach based on structured comparison questions, specifically patient comparison triplet questions. This is combined with a statistical model for the LLM representation that provides estimates of correlations without access to activations or model internals. Intuitively, we consider how similarity decisions of LLMs based on a first variable are affected by providing information on a second variable for one of the patients being assessed. We then induce prompt-level environment shifts to obtain correlation estimates for different subpopulations, which enables an invariant causal prediction (ICP) approach to obtain conservative candidate parent links. We demonstrate the method in two clinical domains, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and multiple sclerosis (MS). Across prompted environments, the elicited correlations are smooth, stable, and clinically interpretable, yet vary in a statistically significant way that supports downstream invariance testing, such that ICP provides a small set of candidate invariant parent links. These results show that indirect elicitation via triplet comparisons can recover meaningful association structure from LLMs and offer a cautious route from implicit correlations to causal statements that are congruent with LLM answering patterns.

Assessing Multimodal Chronic Wound Embeddings with Expert Triplet Agreement

Recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB) is a rare genetic skin disorder for which clinicians greatly benefit from finding similar cases using images and clinical text. However, off-the-shelf foundation models do not reliably capture clinically meaningful features for this heterogeneous, long-tail disease, and structured measurement of agreement with experts is challenging. To address these gaps, we propose evaluating embedding spaces with expert ordinal comparisons (triplet judgments), which are fast to collect and encode implicit clinical similarity knowledge. We further introduce TriDerm, a multimodal framework that learns interpretable wound representations from small cohorts by integrating wound imagery, boundary masks, and expert reports. On the vision side, TriDerm adapts visual foundation models to RDEB using wound-level attention pooling and non-contrastive representation learning. For text, we prompt large language models with comparison queries and recover medically meaningful representations via soft ordinal embeddings (SOE). We show that visual and textual modalities capture complementary aspects of wound phenotype, and that fusing both modalities yields 73.5% agreement with experts, outperforming the best off-the-shelf single-modality foundation model by over 5.6 percentage points. We make the expert annotation tool, model code and representative dataset samples publicly available.

Embedding interpretable $\ell_1$-regression into neural networks for uncovering temporal structure in cell imaging

While artificial neural networks excel in unsupervised learning of non-sparse structure, classical statistical regression techniques offer better interpretability, in particular when sparseness is enforced by $\ell_1$ regularization, enabling identification of which factors drive observed dynamics. We investigate how these two types of approaches can be optimally combined, exemplarily considering two-photon calcium imaging data where sparse autoregressive dynamics are to be extracted. We propose embedding a vector autoregressive (VAR) model as an interpretable regression technique into a convolutional autoencoder, which provides dimension reduction for tractable temporal modeling. A skip connection separately addresses non-sparse static spatial information, selectively channeling sparse structure into the $\ell_1$-regularized VAR. $\ell_1$-estimation of regression parameters is enabled by differentiating through the piecewise linear solution path. This is contrasted with approaches where the autoencoder does not adapt to the VAR model. Having an embedded statistical model also enables a testing approach for comparing temporal sequences from the same observational unit. Additionally, contribution maps visualize which spatial regions drive the learned dynamics.

Small Data Explainer -- The impact of small data methods in everyday life

The emergence of breakthrough artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has led to a renewed focus on how small data settings, i.e., settings with limited information, can benefit from such developments. This includes societal issues such as how best to include under-represented groups in data-driven policy and decision making, or the health benefits of assistive technologies such as wearables. We provide a conceptual overview, in particular contrasting small data with big data, and identify common themes from exemplary case studies and application areas. Potential solutions are described in a more detailed technical overview of current data analysis and modelling techniques, highlighting contributions from different disciplines, such as knowledge-driven modelling from statistics and data-driven modelling from computer science. By linking application settings, conceptual contributions and specific techniques, we highlight what is already feasible and suggest what an agenda for fully leveraging small data might look like.