ConfoundingSHAP: Quantifying confounding strength in causal inference

In causal inference, confounders are variables that influence both treatment decisions and outcomes. However, unlike as in randomized clinical trials, the treatment assignment mechanism in observational studies is not known, and it is thus unclear which covariates act as confounders. Here, we aim to generate insight for causal inference and answer: which of the observed covariates act as confounders? We introduce ConfoundingSHAP, a Shapley-based method for attributing confounding strength to individual covariates. Our contributions are twofold. First, we propose a Shapley game targeted to infer the confounding strength of the covariates. Our resulting Shapley values differ from the standard applications of SHAP explanations on causal targets, such as understanding treatment effect heterogeneity, which are ill-suited for our task. Second, as our task requires evaluating the value function over many adjustment sets, we provide a scalable TabPFN-based estimation that avoids exhaustive refitting. We demonstrate the practical value across various datasets, where ConfoundingSHAP provides informative explanations of which observed covariates drive confounding and thereby helps to provide more insight for causal inference in practice.

Quantification of Credal Uncertainty: A Distance-Based Approach

Credal sets, i.e., closed convex sets of probability measures, provide a natural framework to represent aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning. Yet how to quantify these two types of uncertainty for a given credal set, particularly in multiclass classification, remains underexplored. In this paper, we propose a distance-based approach to quantify total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty for credal sets. Concretely, we introduce a family of such measures within the framework of Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs). The resulting quantities admit clear semantic interpretations, satisfy natural theoretical desiderata, and remain computationally tractable for common choices of IPMs. We instantiate the framework with the total variation distance and obtain simple, efficient uncertainty measures for multiclass classification. In the binary case, this choice recovers established uncertainty measures, for which a principled multiclass generalization has so far been missing. Empirical results confirm practical usefulness, with favorable performance at low computational cost.

Structured Credal Learning

Real-world learning tasks often encounter uncertainty due to covariate shift and noisy or inconsistent labels. However, existing robust learning methods merge these effects into a single distributional uncertainty set. In this work, we introduce a novel structured credal learning framework that explicitly separates these two sources. Specifically, we derive geometric bounds on the total variation diameter of structured credal sets and demonstrate how this quantity decomposes into contributions from covariate shift and expected label disagreement. This decomposition reveals a gating effect: covariate modulates how much label disagreement contributes to the joint uncertainty, such that seemingly benign covariate shifts can substantially increase the effective uncertainty. We also establish finite-sample concentration bounds in a fixed covariate regime and demonstrate that this quantity can be efficiently estimated. Lastly, we show that robust optimization over these structured credal sets reduces to a tractable discrete min-max problem, avoiding ad-hoc robustness parameters. Overall, our approach provides a principled and practical foundation for robust learning under combined covariate and label mechanism ambiguity.

Efficient Credal Prediction through Decalibration

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently been proposed as a suitable approach to representing epistemic uncertainty. However, as with other approaches to epistemic uncertainty, training credal predictors is computationally complex and usually involves (re-)training an ensemble of models. The resulting computational complexity prevents their adoption for complex models such as foundation models and multi-modal systems. To address this problem, we propose an efficient method for credal prediction that is grounded in the notion of relative likelihood and inspired by techniques for the calibration of probabilistic classifiers. For each class label, our method predicts a range of plausible probabilities in the form of an interval. To produce the lower and upper bounds of these intervals, we propose a technique that we refer to as decalibration. Extensive experiments show that our method yields credal sets with strong performance across diverse tasks, including coverage-efficiency evaluation, out-of-distribution detection, and in-context learning. Notably, we demonstrate credal prediction on models such as TabPFN and CLIP -- architectures for which the construction of credal sets was previously infeasible.

Linear-LLM-SCM: Benchmarking LLMs for Coefficient Elicitation in Linear-Gaussian Causal Models

Large language models (LLMs) have shown potential in identifying qualitative causal relations, but their ability to perform quantitative causal reasoning -- estimating effect sizes that parametrize functional relationships -- remains underexplored in continuous domains. We introduce Linear-LLM-SCM, a plug-and-play benchmarking framework for evaluating LLMs on linear Gaussian structural causal model (SCM) parametrization when the DAG is given. The framework decomposes a DAG into local parent-child sets and prompts an LLM to produce a regression-style structural equation per node, which is aggregated and compared against available ground-truth parameters. Our experiments show several challenges in such benchmarking tasks, namely, strong stochasticity in the results in some of the models and susceptibility to DAG misspecification via spurious edges in the continuous domains. Across models, we observe substantial variability in coefficient estimates for some settings and sensitivity to structural and semantic perturbations, highlighting current limitations of LLMs as quantitative causal parameterizers. We also open-sourced the benchmarking framework so that researchers can utilize their DAGs and any off-the-shelf LLMs plug-and-play for evaluation in their domains effortlessly.

Evolutionary Mapping of Neural Networks to Spatial Accelerators

Spatial accelerators, composed of arrays of compute-memory integrated units, offer an attractive platform for deploying inference workloads with low latency and low energy consumption. However, fully exploiting their architectural advantages typically requires careful, expert-driven mapping of computational graphs to distributed processing elements. In this work, we automate this process by framing the mapping challenge as a black-box optimization problem. We introduce the first evolutionary, hardware-in-the-loop mapping framework for neuromorphic accelerators, enabling users without deep hardware knowledge to deploy workloads more efficiently. We evaluate our approach on Intel Loihi 2, a representative spatial accelerator featuring 152 cores per chip in a 2D mesh. Our method achieves up to 35% reduction in total latency compared to default heuristics on two sparse multi-layer perceptron networks. Furthermore, we demonstrate the scalability of our approach to multi-chip systems and observe an up to 40% improvement in energy efficiency, without explicitly optimizing for it.

ResponseRank: Data-Efficient Reward Modeling through Preference Strength Learning

Binary choices, as often used for reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), convey only the direction of a preference. A person may choose apples over oranges and bananas over grapes, but which preference is stronger? Strength is crucial for decision-making under uncertainty and generalization of preference models, but hard to measure reliably. Metadata such as response times and inter-annotator agreement can serve as proxies for strength, but are often noisy and confounded. We propose ResponseRank to address the challenge of learning from noisy strength signals. Our method uses relative differences in proxy signals to rank responses to pairwise comparisons by their inferred preference strength. To control for systemic variation, we compare signals only locally within carefully constructed strata. This enables robust learning of utility differences consistent with strength-derived rankings while making minimal assumptions about the strength signal. Our contributions are threefold: (1) ResponseRank, a novel method that robustly learns preference strength by leveraging locally valid relative strength signals; (2) empirical evidence of improved sample efficiency and robustness across diverse tasks: synthetic preference learning (with simulated response times), language modeling (with annotator agreement), and RL control tasks (with simulated episode returns); and (3) the Pearson Distance Correlation (PDC), a novel metric that isolates cardinal utility learning from ordinal accuracy.

Distribution Matching for Graph Quantification Under Structural Covariate Shift

Graphs are commonly used in machine learning to model relationships between instances. Consider the task of predicting the political preferences of users in a social network; to solve this task one should consider, both, the features of each individual user and the relationships between them. However, oftentimes one is not interested in the label of a single instance but rather in the distribution of labels over a set of instances; e.g., when predicting the political preferences of users, the overall prevalence of a given opinion might be of higher interest than the opinion of a specific person. This label prevalence estimation task is commonly referred to as quantification learning (QL). Current QL methods for tabular data are typically based on the so-called prior probability shift (PPS) assumption which states that the label-conditional instance distributions should remain equal across the training and test data. In the graph setting, PPS generally does not hold if the shift between training and test data is structural, i.e., if the training data comes from a different region of the graph than the test data. To address such structural shifts, an importance sampling variant of the popular adjusted count quantification approach has previously been proposed. In this work, we extend the idea of structural importance sampling to the state-of-the-art KDEy quantification approach. We show that our proposed method adapts to structural shifts and outperforms standard quantification approaches.

Co-Exploration and Co-Exploitation via Shared Structure in Multi-Task Bandits

We propose a novel Bayesian framework for efficient exploration in contextual multi-task multi-armed bandit settings, where the context is only observed partially and dependencies between reward distributions are induced by latent context variables. In order to exploit these structural dependencies, our approach integrates observations across all tasks and learns a global joint distribution, while still allowing personalised inference for new tasks. In this regard, we identify two key sources of epistemic uncertainty, namely structural uncertainty in the latent reward dependencies across arms and tasks, and user-specific uncertainty due to incomplete context and limited interaction history. To put our method into practice, we represent the joint distribution over tasks and rewards using a particle-based approximation of a log-density Gaussian process. This representation enables flexible, data-driven discovery of both inter-arm and inter-task dependencies without prior assumptions on the latent variables. Empirically, we demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines such as hierarchical model bandits, especially in settings with model misspecification or complex latent heterogeneity.

Efficient Online Learning with Predictive Coding Networks: Exploiting Temporal Correlations

Robotic systems operating at the edge require efficient online learning algorithms that can continuously adapt to changing environments while processing streaming sensory data. Traditional backpropagation, while effective, conflicts with biological plausibility principles and may be suboptimal for continuous adaptation scenarios. The Predictive Coding (PC) framework offers a biologically plausible alternative with local, Hebbian-like update rules, making it suitable for neuromorphic hardware implementation. However, PC's main limitation is its computational overhead due to multiple inference iterations during training. We present Predictive Coding Network with Temporal Amortization (PCN-TA), which preserves latent states across temporal frames. By leveraging temporal correlations, PCN-TA significantly reduces computational demands while maintaining learning performance. Our experiments on the COIL-20 robotic perception dataset demonstrate that PCN-TA achieves 10% fewer weight updates compared to backpropagation and requires 50% fewer inference steps than baseline PC networks. These efficiency gains directly translate to reduced computational overhead for moving another step toward edge deployment and real-time adaptation support in resource-constrained robotic systems. The biologically-inspired nature of our approach also makes it a promising candidate for future neuromorphic hardware implementations, enabling efficient online learning at the edge.