Cross-Cohort Generalizability of Deep and Conventional Machine Learning for MRI-based Diagnosis and Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease

This work validates the generalizability of MRI-based classification of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients and controls (CN) to an external data set and to the task of prediction of conversion to AD in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We used a conventional support vector machine (SVM) and a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) approach based on structural MRI scans that underwent either minimal pre-processing or more extensive pre-processing into modulated gray matter (GM) maps. Classifiers were optimized and evaluated using cross-validation in the ADNI (334 AD, 520 CN). Trained classifiers were subsequently applied to predict conversion to AD in ADNI MCI patients (231 converters, 628 non-converters) and in the independent Health-RI Parelsnoer data set. From this multi-center study representing a tertiary memory clinic population, we included 199 AD patients, 139 participants with subjective cognitive decline, 48 MCI patients converting to dementia, and 91 MCI patients who did not convert to dementia. AD-CN classification based on modulated GM maps resulted in a similar AUC for SVM (0.940) and CNN (0.933). Application to conversion prediction in MCI yielded significantly higher performance for SVM (0.756) than for CNN (0.742). In external validation, performance was slightly decreased. For AD-CN, it again gave similar AUCs for SVM (0.896) and CNN (0.876). For prediction in MCI, performances decreased for both SVM (0.665) and CNN (0.702). Both with SVM and CNN, classification based on modulated GM maps significantly outperformed classification based on minimally processed images. Deep and conventional classifiers performed equally well for AD classification and their performance decreased only slightly when applied to the external cohort. We expect that this work on external validation contributes towards translation of machine learning to clinical practice.

Learning unbiased registration and joint segmentation: evaluation on longitudinal diffusion MRI

Analysis of longitudinal changes in imaging studies often involves both segmentation of structures of interest and registration of multiple timeframes. The accuracy of such analysis could benefit from a tailored framework that jointly optimizes both tasks to fully exploit the information available in the longitudinal data. Most learning-based registration algorithms, including joint optimization approaches, currently suffer from bias due to selection of a fixed reference frame and only support pairwise transformations. We here propose an analytical framework based on an unbiased learning strategy for group-wise registration that simultaneously registers images to the mean space of a group to obtain consistent segmentations. We evaluate the proposed method on longitudinal analysis of a white matter tract in a brain MRI dataset with 2-3 time-points for 3249 individuals, i.e., 8045 images in total. The reproducibility of the method is evaluated on test-retest data from 97 individuals. The results confirm that the implicit reference image is an average of the input image. In addition, the proposed framework leads to consistent segmentations and significantly lower processing bias than that of a pair-wise fixed-reference approach. This processing bias is even smaller than those obtained when translating segmentations by only one voxel, which can be attributed to subtle numerical instabilities and interpolation. Therefore, we postulate that the proposed mean-space learning strategy could be widely applied to learning-based registration tasks. In addition, this group-wise framework introduces a novel way for learning-based longitudinal studies by direct construction of an unbiased within-subject template and allowing reliable and efficient analysis of spatio-temporal imaging biomarkers.

Analyzing the effect of APOE on Alzheimer's disease progression using an event-based model for stratified populations

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia and is phenotypically heterogeneous. APOE is a triallelic gene which correlates with phenotypic heterogeneity in AD. In this work, we determined the effect of APOE alleles on the disease progression timeline of AD using a discriminative event-based model (DEBM). Since DEBM is a data-driven model, stratification into smaller disease subgroups would lead to more inaccurate models as compared to fitting the model on the entire dataset. Hence our secondary aim is to propose and evaluate novel approaches in which we split the different steps of DEBM into group-aspecific and group-specific parts, where the entire dataset is used to train the group-aspecific parts and only the data from a specific group is used to train the group-specific parts of the DEBM. We performed simulation experiments to benchmark the accuracy of the proposed approaches and to select the optimal approach. Subsequently, the chosen approach was applied to the baseline data of 417 cognitively normal, 235 mild cognitively impaired who convert to AD within 3 years, and 342 AD patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset to gain new insights into the effect of APOE carriership on the disease progression timeline of AD. The presented models could aid understanding of the disease, and in selecting homogeneous group of presymptomatic subjects at-risk of developing symptoms for clinical trials.

Neuro4Neuro: A neural network approach for neural tract segmentation using large-scale population-based diffusion imaging

Subtle changes in white matter (WM) microstructure have been associated with normal aging and neurodegeneration. To study these associations in more detail, it is highly important that the WM tracts can be accurately and reproducibly characterized from brain diffusion MRI. In addition, to enable analysis of WM tracts in large datasets and in clinical practice it is essential to have methodology that is fast and easy to apply. This work therefore presents a new approach for WM tract segmentation: Neuro4Neuro, that is capable of direct extraction of WM tracts from diffusion tensor images using convolutional neural network (CNN). This 3D end-to-end method is trained to segment 25 WM tracts in aging individuals from a large population-based study (N=9752, 1.5T MRI). The proposed method showed good segmentation performance and high reproducibility, i.e., a high spatial agreement (Cohen's kappa, k = 0.72 ~ 0.83) and a low scan-rescan error in tract-specific diffusion measures (e.g., fractional anisotropy: error = 1% ~ 5%). The reproducibility of the proposed method was higher than that of a tractography-based segmentation algorithm, while being orders of magnitude faster (0.5s to segment one tract). In addition, we showed that the method successfully generalizes to diffusion scans from an external dementia dataset (N=58, 3T MRI). In two proof-of-principle experiments, we associated WM microstructure obtained using the proposed method with age in a normal elderly population, and with disease subtypes in a dementia cohort. In concordance with the literature, results showed a widespread reduction of microstructural organization with aging and substantial group-wise microstructure differences between dementia subtypes. In conclusion, we presented a highly reproducible and fast method for WM tract segmentation that has the potential of being used in large-scale studies and clinical practice.

Event-Based Modeling with High-Dimensional Imaging Biomarkers for Estimating Spatial Progression of Dementia

Event-based models (EBM) are a class of disease progression models that can be used to estimate temporal ordering of neuropathological changes from cross-sectional data. Current EBMs only handle scalar biomarkers, such as regional volumes, as inputs. However, regional aggregates are a crude summary of the underlying high-resolution images, potentially limiting the accuracy of EBM. Therefore, we propose a novel method that exploits high-dimensional voxel-wise imaging biomarkers: n-dimensional discriminative EBM (nDEBM). nDEBM is based on an insight that mixture modeling, which is a key element of conventional EBMs, can be replaced by a more scalable semi-supervised support vector machine (SVM) approach. This SVM is used to estimate the degree of abnormality of each region which is then used to obtain subject-specific disease progression patterns. These patterns are in turn used for estimating the mean ordering by fitting a generalized Mallows model. In order to validate the biomarker ordering obtained using nDEBM, we also present a framework for Simulation of Imaging Biomarkers' Temporal Evolution (SImBioTE) that mimics neurodegeneration in brain regions. SImBioTE trains variational auto-encoders (VAE) in different brain regions independently to simulate images at varying stages of disease progression. We also validate nDEBM clinically using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). In both experiments, nDEBM using high-dimensional features gave better performance than state-of-the-art EBM methods using regional volume biomarkers. This suggests that nDEBM is a promising approach for disease progression modeling.

Disease Progression Timeline Estimation for Alzheimer's Disease using Discriminative Event Based Modeling

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is characterized by a cascade of biomarkers becoming abnormal, the pathophysiology of which is very complex and largely unknown. Event-based modeling (EBM) is a data-driven technique to estimate the sequence in which biomarkers for a disease become abnormal based on cross-sectional data. It can help in understanding the dynamics of disease progression and facilitate early diagnosis and prognosis. In this work we propose a novel discriminative approach to EBM, which is shown to be more accurate than existing state-of-the-art EBM methods. The method first estimates for each subject an approximate ordering of events. Subsequently, the central ordering over all subjects is estimated by fitting a generalized Mallows model to these approximate subject-specific orderings. We also introduce the concept of relative distance between events which helps in creating a disease progression timeline. Subsequently, we propose a method to stage subjects by placing them on the estimated disease progression timeline. We evaluated the proposed method on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data and compared the results with existing state-of-the-art EBM methods. We also performed extensive experiments on synthetic data simulating the progression of Alzheimer's disease. The event orderings obtained on ADNI data seem plausible and are in agreement with the current understanding of progression of AD. The proposed patient staging algorithm performed consistently better than that of state-of-the-art EBM methods. Event orderings obtained in simulation experiments were more accurate than those of other EBM methods and the estimated disease progression timeline was observed to correlate with the timeline of actual disease progression. The results of these experiments are encouraging and suggest that discriminative EBM is a promising approach to disease progression modeling.