Forecasting Downstream Performance of LLMs With Proxy Metrics

Progress in language model development is often driven by comparative decisions: which architecture to adopt, which pretraining corpus to use, or which training recipe to apply. Making these decisions well requires reliable performance forecasts, yet the two commonly used signals are fundamentally limited. Cross-entropy loss is poorly aligned with downstream capabilities, and direct downstream evaluation is expensive, sparse, and often uninformative at early training stages. Instead, we propose to construct proxy metrics by aggregating token-level statistics, such as entropy, top-k accuracy, and expert token rank, from a candidate model's next token distribution over expert-written solutions. Across three settings, our proxies consistently outperform loss- and compute-based baselines: 1) For cross-family model selection, they rank a heterogeneous population of reasoning models with mean Spearman Rho = 0.81 (vs. Rho = 0.36 for cross-entropy loss); 2) For pretraining data selection, they reliably rank 25 candidate corpora for a target model at roughly $10{,}000\times$ less compute than direct evaluation, pushing the Pareto frontier beyond existing methods; and 3) for training-time forecasting, they extrapolate downstream accuracy across an $18\times$ compute horizon with roughly half the error of existing alternatives. Together, these results suggest that expert trajectories are a broadly useful source of signal for assessing model capabilities, enabling reliable performance forecasting throughout the model development life cycle.

BRIDGE: Predicting Human Task Completion Time From Model Performance

Evaluating the real-world capabilities of AI systems requires grounding benchmark performance in human-interpretable measures of task difficulty. Existing approaches that rely on direct human task completion time annotations are costly, noisy, and difficult to scale across benchmarks. In this work, we propose BRIDGE, a unified psychometric framework that learns the latent difficulty scale from model responses and anchors it to human task completion time. Using a two-parameter logistic Item Response Theory model, we jointly estimate latent task difficulty and model capability from model performance data across multiple benchmarks. We demonstrate that latent task difficulty varies linearly with the logarithm of human completion time, allowing human task completion time to be inferred for new benchmarks from model performance alone. Leveraging this alignment, we forecast frontier model capabilities in terms of human task length and independently reproduce METR's exponential scaling results, with the 50% solvable task horizon doubling approximately every 6 months.

How to Get Your LLM to Generate Challenging Problems for Evaluation

The pace of evolution of Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates new approaches for rigorous and comprehensive evaluation. Traditional human annotation is increasingly impracticable due to the complexities and costs involved in generating high-quality, challenging problems. In this work, we introduce CHASE, a unified framework to synthetically generate challenging problems using LLMs without human involvement. For a given task, our approach builds a hard problem in a bottom-up manner from simpler components. Moreover, our framework decomposes the generation process into independently verifiable sub-tasks, thereby ensuring a high level of quality and correctness. We implement CHASE to create evaluation benchmarks across three diverse domains: (1) document-based question answering, (2) repository-level code completion, and (3) math reasoning. The performance of state-of-the-art LLMs on these synthetic benchmarks lies in the range of 40-60% accuracy, thereby demonstrating the effectiveness of our framework at generating challenging problems. We publicly release our benchmarks and code.

TapeAgents: a Holistic Framework for Agent Development and Optimization

We present TapeAgents, an agent framework built around a granular, structured log tape of the agent session that also plays the role of the session's resumable state. In TapeAgents we leverage tapes to facilitate all stages of the LLM Agent development lifecycle. The agent reasons by processing the tape and the LLM output to produce new thought and action steps and append them to the tape. The environment then reacts to the agent's actions by likewise appending observation steps to the tape. By virtue of this tape-centred design, TapeAgents can provide AI practitioners with holistic end-to-end support. At the development stage, tapes facilitate session persistence, agent auditing, and step-by-step debugging. Post-deployment, one can reuse tapes for evaluation, fine-tuning, and prompt-tuning; crucially, one can adapt tapes from other agents or use revised historical tapes. In this report, we explain the TapeAgents design in detail. We demonstrate possible applications of TapeAgents with several concrete examples of building monolithic agents and multi-agent teams, of optimizing agent prompts and finetuning the agent's LLM. We present tooling prototypes and report a case study where we use TapeAgents to finetune a Llama-3.1-8B form-filling assistant to perform as well as GPT-4o while being orders of magnitude cheaper. Lastly, our comparative analysis shows that TapeAgents's advantages over prior frameworks stem from our novel design of the LLM agent as a resumable, modular state machine with a structured configuration, that generates granular, structured logs and that can transform these logs into training text -- a unique combination of features absent in previous work.

NNetscape Navigator: Complex Demonstrations for Web Agents Without a Demonstrator

We introduce NNetscape Navigator (NNetnav), a method for training web agents entirely through synthetic demonstrations. These demonstrations are collected by first interacting with a browser to generate trajectory rollouts, which are then retroactively labeled into instructions using a language model. Most work on training browser agents has relied on expensive human supervision, and the limited previous work on such interaction-first synthetic data techniques has failed to provide effective search through the exponential space of exploration. In contrast, NNetnav exploits the hierarchical structure of language instructions to make this search more tractable: complex instructions are typically decomposable into simpler subtasks, allowing NNetnav to automatically prune interaction episodes when an intermediate trajectory cannot be annotated with a meaningful sub-task. We use NNetnav demonstrations from a language model for supervised fine-tuning of a smaller language model policy, and find improvements of 6 points on WebArena and over 20 points on MiniWoB++, two popular environments for web-agents. Notably, on WebArena, we observe that language model policies can be further enhanced when fine-tuned with NNetnav demonstrations derived from the same language model. Finally, we collect and release a dataset of over 6k NNetnav demonstrations on WebArena, spanning a diverse and complex set of instructions.

LLMs can learn self-restraint through iterative self-reflection

In order to be deployed safely, Large Language Models (LLMs) must be capable of dynamically adapting their behavior based on their level of knowledge and uncertainty associated with specific topics. This adaptive behavior, which we refer to as self-restraint, is non-trivial to teach since it depends on the internal knowledge of an LLM. By default, LLMs are trained to maximize the next token likelihood, which does not teach the model to modulate its answer based on its level of uncertainty. In order to learn self-restraint, we devise a utility function that can encourage the model to produce responses only when it is confident in them. This utility function can be used to score generation of different length and abstention. To optimize this function, we introduce ReSearch, a process of ``self-reflection'' consisting of iterative self-prompting and self-evaluation. We use the ReSearch algorithm to generate synthetic data on which we finetune our models. Compared to their original versions, our resulting models generate fewer \emph{hallucinations} overall at no additional inference cost, for both known and unknown topics, as the model learns to selectively restrain itself. In addition, our method elegantly incorporates the ability to abstain by augmenting the samples generated by the model during the search procedure with an answer expressing abstention.

LLM2Vec: Large Language Models Are Secretly Powerful Text Encoders

Large decoder-only language models (LLMs) are the state-of-the-art models on most of today's NLP tasks and benchmarks. Yet, the community is only slowly adopting these models for text embedding tasks, which require rich contextualized representations. In this work, we introduce LLM2Vec, a simple unsupervised approach that can transform any decoder-only LLM into a strong text encoder. LLM2Vec consists of three simple steps: 1) enabling bidirectional attention, 2) masked next token prediction, and 3) unsupervised contrastive learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of LLM2Vec by applying it to 3 popular LLMs ranging from 1.3B to 7B parameters and evaluate the transformed models on English word- and sequence-level tasks. We outperform encoder-only models by a large margin on word-level tasks and reach a new unsupervised state-of-the-art performance on the Massive Text Embeddings Benchmark (MTEB). Moreover, when combining LLM2Vec with supervised contrastive learning, we achieve state-of-the-art performance on MTEB among models that train only on publicly available data. Our strong empirical results and extensive analysis demonstrate that LLMs can be effectively transformed into universal text encoders in a parameter-efficient manner without the need for expensive adaptation or synthetic GPT-4 generated data.

Evaluating In-Context Learning of Libraries for Code Generation

Contemporary Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit a high degree of code generation and comprehension capability. A particularly promising area is their ability to interpret code modules from unfamiliar libraries for solving user-instructed tasks. Recent work has shown that large proprietary LLMs can learn novel library usage in-context from demonstrations. These results raise several open questions: whether demonstrations of library usage is required, whether smaller (and more open) models also possess such capabilities, etc. In this work, we take a broader approach by systematically evaluating a diverse array of LLMs across three scenarios reflecting varying levels of domain specialization to understand their abilities and limitations in generating code based on libraries defined in-context. Our results show that even smaller open-source LLMs like Llama-2 and StarCoder demonstrate an adept understanding of novel code libraries based on specification presented in-context. Our findings further reveal that LLMs exhibit a surprisingly high proficiency in learning novel library modules even when provided with just natural language descriptions or raw code implementations of the functions, which are often cheaper to obtain than demonstrations. Overall, our results pave the way for harnessing LLMs in more adaptable and dynamic coding environments.

PromptMix: A Class Boundary Augmentation Method for Large Language Model Distillation

Data augmentation is a widely used technique to address the problem of text classification when there is a limited amount of training data. Recent work often tackles this problem using large language models (LLMs) like GPT3 that can generate new examples given already available ones. In this work, we propose a method to generate more helpful augmented data by utilizing the LLM's abilities to follow instructions and perform few-shot classifications. Our specific PromptMix method consists of two steps: 1) generate challenging text augmentations near class boundaries; however, generating borderline examples increases the risk of false positives in the dataset, so we 2) relabel the text augmentations using a prompting-based LLM classifier to enhance the correctness of labels in the generated data. We evaluate the proposed method in challenging 2-shot and zero-shot settings on four text classification datasets: Banking77, TREC6, Subjectivity (SUBJ), and Twitter Complaints. Our experiments show that generating and, crucially, relabeling borderline examples facilitates the transfer of knowledge of a massive LLM like GPT3.5-turbo into smaller and cheaper classifiers like DistilBERT$_{base}$ and BERT$_{base}$. Furthermore, 2-shot PromptMix outperforms multiple 5-shot data augmentation methods on the four datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/ServiceNow/PromptMix-EMNLP-2023.

MAGNIFICo: Evaluating the In-Context Learning Ability of Large Language Models to Generalize to Novel Interpretations

Humans possess a remarkable ability to assign novel interpretations to linguistic expressions, enabling them to learn new words and understand community-specific connotations. However, Large Language Models (LLMs) have a knowledge cutoff and are costly to finetune repeatedly. Therefore, it is crucial for LLMs to learn novel interpretations in-context. In this paper, we systematically analyse the ability of LLMs to acquire novel interpretations using in-context learning. To facilitate our study, we introduce MAGNIFICo, an evaluation suite implemented within a text-to-SQL semantic parsing framework that incorporates diverse tokens and prompt settings to simulate real-world complexity. Experimental results on MAGNIFICo demonstrate that LLMs exhibit a surprisingly robust capacity for comprehending novel interpretations from natural language descriptions as well as from discussions within long conversations. Nevertheless, our findings also highlight the need for further improvements, particularly when interpreting unfamiliar words or when composing multiple novel interpretations simultaneously in the same example. Additionally, our analysis uncovers the semantic predispositions in LLMs and reveals the impact of recency bias for information presented in long contexts.