Spatial Mapping with Gaussian Processes and Nonstationary Fourier Features

The use of covariance kernels is ubiquitous in the field of spatial statistics. Kernels allow data to be mapped into high-dimensional feature spaces and can thus extend simple linear additive methods to nonlinear methods with higher order interactions. However, until recently, there has been a strong reliance on a limited class of stationary kernels such as the Matern or squared exponential, limiting the expressiveness of these modelling approaches. Recent machine learning research has focused on spectral representations to model arbitrary stationary kernels and introduced more general representations that include classes of nonstationary kernels. In this paper, we exploit the connections between Fourier feature representations, Gaussian processes and neural networks to generalise previous approaches and develop a simple and efficient framework to learn arbitrarily complex nonstationary kernel functions directly from the data, while taking care to avoid overfitting using state-of-the-art methods from deep learning. We highlight the very broad array of kernel classes that could be created within this framework. We apply this to a time series dataset and a remote sensing problem involving land surface temperature in Eastern Africa. We show that without increasing the computational or storage complexity, nonstationary kernels can be used to improve generalisation performance and provide more interpretable results.

Testing and Learning on Distributions with Symmetric Noise Invariance

Kernel embeddings of distributions and the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), the resulting distance between distributions, are useful tools for fully nonparametric two-sample testing and learning on distributions. However, it is rarely that all possible differences between samples are of interest -- discovered differences can be due to different types of measurement noise, data collection artefacts or other irrelevant sources of variability. We propose distances between distributions which encode invariance to additive symmetric noise, aimed at testing whether the assumed true underlying processes differ. Moreover, we construct invariant features of distributions, leading to learning algorithms robust to the impairment of the input distributions with symmetric additive noise.

Probabilistic Integration: A Role in Statistical Computation?

A research frontier has emerged in scientific computation, wherein numerical error is regarded as a source of epistemic uncertainty that can be modelled. This raises several statistical challenges, including the design of statistical methods that enable the coherent propagation of probabilities through a (possibly deterministic) computational work-flow. This paper examines the case for probabilistic numerical methods in routine statistical computation. Our focus is on numerical integration, where a probabilistic integrator is equipped with a full distribution over its output that reflects the presence of an unknown numerical error. Our main technical contribution is to establish, for the first time, rates of posterior contraction for these methods. These show that probabilistic integrators can in principle enjoy the "best of both worlds", leveraging the sampling efficiency of Monte Carlo methods whilst providing a principled route to assess the impact of numerical error on scientific conclusions. Several substantial applications are provided for illustration and critical evaluation, including examples from statistical modelling, computer graphics and a computer model for an oil reservoir.

Kernel Sequential Monte Carlo

We propose kernel sequential Monte Carlo (KSMC), a framework for sampling from static target densities. KSMC is a family of sequential Monte Carlo algorithms that are based on building emulator models of the current particle system in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We here focus on modelling nonlinear covariance structure and gradients of the target. The emulator's geometry is adaptively updated and subsequently used to inform local proposals. Unlike in adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo, continuous adaptation does not compromise convergence of the sampler. KSMC combines the strengths of sequental Monte Carlo and kernel methods: superior performance for multimodal targets and the ability to estimate model evidence as compared to Markov chain Monte Carlo, and the emulator's ability to represent targets that exhibit high degrees of nonlinearity. As KSMC does not require access to target gradients, it is particularly applicable on targets whose gradients are unknown or prohibitively expensive. We describe necessary tuning details and demonstrate the benefits of the the proposed methodology on a series of challenging synthetic and real-world examples.

Poisson intensity estimation with reproducing kernels

Despite the fundamental nature of the inhomogeneous Poisson process in the theory and application of stochastic processes, and its attractive generalizations (e.g. Cox process), few tractable nonparametric modeling approaches of intensity functions exist, especially when observed points lie in a high-dimensional space. In this paper we develop a new, computationally tractable Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) formulation for the inhomogeneous Poisson process. We model the square root of the intensity as an RKHS function. Whereas RKHS models used in supervised learning rely on the so-called representer theorem, the form of the inhomogeneous Poisson process likelihood means that the representer theorem does not apply. However, we prove that the representer theorem does hold in an appropriately transformed RKHS, guaranteeing that the optimization of the penalized likelihood can be cast as a tractable finite-dimensional problem. The resulting approach is simple to implement, and readily scales to high dimensions and large-scale datasets.

A Wild Bootstrap for Degenerate Kernel Tests

A wild bootstrap method for nonparametric hypothesis tests based on kernel distribution embeddings is proposed. This bootstrap method is used to construct provably consistent tests that apply to random processes, for which the naive permutation-based bootstrap fails. It applies to a large group of kernel tests based on V-statistics, which are degenerate under the null hypothesis, and non-degenerate elsewhere. To illustrate this approach, we construct a two-sample test, an instantaneous independence test and a multiple lag independence test for time series. In experiments, the wild bootstrap gives strong performance on synthetic examples, on audio data, and in performance benchmarking for the Gibbs sampler.

Large-Scale Kernel Methods for Independence Testing

Representations of probability measures in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces provide a flexible framework for fully nonparametric hypothesis tests of independence, which can capture any type of departure from independence, including nonlinear associations and multivariate interactions. However, these approaches come with an at least quadratic computational cost in the number of observations, which can be prohibitive in many applications. Arguably, it is exactly in such large-scale datasets that capturing any type of dependence is of interest, so striking a favourable tradeoff between computational efficiency and test performance for kernel independence tests would have a direct impact on their applicability in practice. In this contribution, we provide an extensive study of the use of large-scale kernel approximations in the context of independence testing, contrasting block-based, Nystrom and random Fourier feature approaches. Through a variety of synthetic data experiments, it is demonstrated that our novel large scale methods give comparable performance with existing methods whilst using significantly less computation time and memory.

Bayesian Learning of Kernel Embeddings

Kernel methods are one of the mainstays of machine learning, but the problem of kernel learning remains challenging, with only a few heuristics and very little theory. This is of particular importance in methods based on estimation of kernel mean embeddings of probability measures. For characteristic kernels, which include most commonly used ones, the kernel mean embedding uniquely determines its probability measure, so it can be used to design a powerful statistical testing framework, which includes nonparametric two-sample and independence tests. In practice, however, the performance of these tests can be very sensitive to the choice of kernel and its lengthscale parameters. To address this central issue, we propose a new probabilistic model for kernel mean embeddings, the Bayesian Kernel Embedding model, combining a Gaussian process prior over the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space containing the mean embedding with a conjugate likelihood function, thus yielding a closed form posterior over the mean embedding. The posterior mean of our model is closely related to recently proposed shrinkage estimators for kernel mean embeddings, while the posterior uncertainty is a new, interesting feature with various possible applications. Critically for the purposes of kernel learning, our model gives a simple, closed form marginal pseudolikelihood of the observed data given the kernel hyperparameters. This marginal pseudolikelihood can either be optimized to inform the hyperparameter choice or fully Bayesian inference can be used.

Hyperspectral Image Classification with Support Vector Machines on Kernel Distribution Embeddings

We propose a novel approach for pixel classification in hyperspectral images, leveraging on both the spatial and spectral information in the data. The introduced method relies on a recently proposed framework for learning on distributions -- by representing them with mean elements in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) and formulating a classification algorithm therein. In particular, we associate each pixel to an empirical distribution of its neighbouring pixels, a judicious representation of which in an RKHS, in conjunction with the spectral information contained in the pixel itself, give a new explicit set of features that can be fed into a suite of standard classification techniques -- we opt for a well-established framework of support vector machines (SVM). Furthermore, the computational complexity is reduced via random Fourier features formalism. We study the consistency and the convergence rates of the proposed method and the experiments demonstrate strong performance on hyperspectral data with gains in comparison to the state-of-the-art results.

DR-ABC: Approximate Bayesian Computation with Kernel-Based Distribution Regression

Performing exact posterior inference in complex generative models is often difficult or impossible due to an expensive to evaluate or intractable likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an inference framework that constructs an approximation to the true likelihood based on the similarity between the observed and simulated data as measured by a predefined set of summary statistics. Although the choice of appropriate problem-specific summary statistics crucially influences the quality of the likelihood approximation and hence also the quality of the posterior sample in ABC, there are only few principled general-purpose approaches to the selection or construction of such summary statistics. In this paper, we develop a novel framework for this task using kernel-based distribution regression. We model the functional relationship between data distributions and the optimal choice (with respect to a loss function) of summary statistics using kernel-based distribution regression. We show that our approach can be implemented in a computationally and statistically efficient way using the random Fourier features framework for large-scale kernel learning. In addition to that, our framework shows superior performance when compared to related methods on toy and real-world problems.