DACRI: Decision-Aware Causal Intervention Ranking for Critical Supply Chains

Detecting or attributing a supply-chain disruption is not the same as selecting the intervention that maximizes recoverable net value. We present CriticalSCM-Bench v1, a controlled synthetic benchmark with causal ground truth, paired factual/counterfactual rollouts, and an explicit net-value objective. Relative to a full-information train-selected static benchmark, LambdaMART improves median normalized net value by 5.7--16.2\%, with paired statistical support on the semiconductor and critical-material archetypes but not on digital infrastructure. On digital infrastructure, a domain-informed constant-buffer policy remains stronger, showing that greater model complexity is not uniformly justified. Across partial and delayed settings, LambdaMART retains 33--75\% of full-clamp value. Stress tests further show that intervention fidelity, timing, cost, and held-out disruptions can alter policy ordering. Critical materials show the weakest out-of-distribution retention. Separately, a guarded explanation study over 540 generations preserves every fixed intervention decision after deterministic validation and template fallback, although exact wording remains unstable. Within this controlled setting, the results identify regimes in which adaptive ranking adds value and those in which simpler structural policies remain preferable.

Safety, or Just Capability? A Validity Audit of Agent-Safety Benchmarks

Agent-safety benchmarks measure different behaviors, and their scores get quoted interchangeably as an agent's safety. We treat four of them (R-Judge, InjecAgent, AgentHarm, AgentDojo) as measurements to be validated, running each under its official implementation and author-provided scorer on up to 22 models, with MMLU and GPQA measured by us under one protocol as a capability composite. The metric is the first problem. On any binary trace-judgment benchmark scored by $F_1$, an ``always positive'' policy attains $F_1 = 2π/(1+π)$; on R-Judge that is $0.690$, above five of the 21 models that actually discriminate. The three broad-coverage benchmarks then rank the same 18 models differently, and the trade-off behind that disagreement is a small-panel artifact: R-Judge specificity against AgentHarm safety correlates $-0.64$ at $n{=}7$ and $+0.02$ at $n{=}18$, and a quarter of random size-7 subsets reach $|ρ| \geq 0.5$ around that near-zero value. Held-out validity turns on which outcome you pick. Capability predicts task success ($ρ{=}{+}0.60$) but correlates negatively with misalignment safety ($ρ{=}{-}0.44$, $n{=}21$). On their paired $n{=}20$ panel, the corresponding contrast is $Δ{=}{-}1.00$ (95% CI $[-1.48, -0.49]$, $p<0.001$), and it survives leave-one-organization-out and organization-clustered bootstrap analyses. On an expanded 41-model panel, the misalignment correlation weakens to $-0.16$ (95% CI $[-0.54, +0.22]$) and jailbreak strengthens to $+0.34$, though neither change is significant. \mbox{AgentHarm} shows the strongest held-out association, $ρ{=}{+}0.72$ with three-template jailbreak safety after controlling capability. But both instruments score harmful compliance, so this is evidence of convergent validity rather than general safety. Naming the benchmark, metric, target behavior, and model panel is the minimum a safety claim needs.

Accuracy-Preserving Stability Regularization for Large-Scale Retail Demand Forecasting

Retail demand forecasts are reused across replenishment, capacity, labor, and transportation planning cycles. Point-error objectives do not constrain abrupt movement between adjacent forecasts, while post-hoc smoothing acts only after model fitting. We ask whether a training-time penalty on consecutive within-series movement can improve horizontal forecast-path stability without materially changing point accuracy. The penalty is evaluated in a temporal-structured pipeline combining recent-demand embeddings with calendar, price, hierarchy, item, and store features. On selected M5 demand series at 1000, 3000, and 4000-series scales, the stability-aware hybrid model improves Forecast Stability Score over XGBoost by 6.91%, 6.66%, and 7.68%, respectively, while RMSE changes remain within 0.72% across three random seeds. Post-hoc exponential smoothing attains lower raw movement but incurs a larger RMSE cost; training-time regularization preserves more point accuracy and performs favorably under normalized stability. These findings extend forecast evaluation from point-error minimization toward an accuracy-stability trade-off perspective for operational retail forecasting.

Detecting Answer-Driven Reasoning in LLM-Based Educational Tutors via Truncated Chain-of-Thought Auditing

Large language model (LLM) tutors often produce fluent step-by-step explanations, but a correct and pedagogically formatted response does not guarantee that the answer was derived from the student-facing problem. In realistic tutoring systems, the model may also have access to teacher notes, answer keys, rubrics, or retrieved solution artifacts. We study whether such private answer information can make tutor explanations answer-driven: the final answer is behaviorally available before the written explanation has justified it. Using Truncated Reasoning AUC Evaluation (TRACE), which probes how early a chain-of-thought prefix can pass a verifier, we evaluate 1000 GSM8K test problems under three paired tutoring contexts: question-only, correct answer-key, and wrong answer-key. At fixed fractions of each generated explanation, we force the model to answer immediately and verify the response against the gold numeric answer. With Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct, answer-key access raises median TRACE AUC from 0.375 to 0.900 and makes the gold answer available at the first 10% prefix in 997 of 1000 cases. The effect remains strong on the 746 examples where both question-only and answer-key explanations end with the correct answer. These results support truncated CoT auditing as a lightweight process-level diagnostic for answer-driven reasoning in math tutoring explanations.

Self-Commitment Latency: A Reward-Free Probe for Prompted Implicit Hacking

Implicit reward hacking is hard to audit when a language model's chain of thought appears benign: a final answer may be anchored by a prompt shortcut while the written reasoning still resembles ordinary problem solving. Verifier-based probes expose such behavior by measuring how early truncated reasoning contexts obtain high reward, but require a task-specific reward signal. This paper proposes a weaker-input alternative, self-commitment latency, which measures how early a prompted reasoning context commits to the model's own final answer. We evaluate the probe in a controlled paired GSM8K setting using Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct-4bit, comparing ordinary prompts with prompts that include an answer hint. Hinted contexts commit substantially earlier and with lower uncertainty than honest contexts. The primary latency metric, first-commitment latency at threshold 0.8, reaches AUROC 0.878; supporting whole-curve summaries reach AUROC 0.926 for commitment range and 0.904 for mean uncommitted mass. The signal is stronger when both prompt conditions answer correctly and remains stable across thresholds. These results show that shortcut-available reasoning contexts can leave an early behavioral commitment signature detectable without a reward model, external judge, or trained classifier.

When LLM Reward Design Fails: Diagnostic-Driven Refinement for Sparse Structured RL

For sparse, structured reinforcement-learning tasks with semantic reward-function interfaces, LLM-generated reward shaping is better framed as debugging than one-shot generation. We study PPO-trained agents using MiniGrid as core evaluation and MuJoCo as boundary stress test. Our audit finds two dominant one-shot failure modes -- reward flooding and semantic/API misunderstanding -- plus a rarer weak-shaping case. We propose diagnostic-driven iterative refinement, where training diagnostics and a failure-mode taxonomy guide targeted reward-function revision. Refinement improves DoorKey-8x8 from 2.3% to 97.6% and KeyCorridor from 31.2% to 86.7% with high seed-to-seed variance. Controls show these gains are not from retrying or extra training: metrics-only re-prompting yields large drops, while a static-vocabulary control recovers much of the gap (87.6%; 70.7%), showing the taxonomy prompt is a major mechanism and dynamic labels provide only partially isolated incremental evidence. Budget-matched and Best-of-3 comparisons separate refinement from selection and training-time effects. Component-removal tests, sensitivity analyses, and an audit against author labels provide converging evidence for the debugging interpretation while revealing calibration limits. Continuous-control results show the boundary: success-based diagnostics can misfire in dense-reward locomotion, and return-trend feedback removes one false-positive mechanism without robust gains. The low-call protocol is a cost contrast with population-based reward search, not a benchmark comparison. In four crossed-variance-design environments, point estimates suggest larger gains when LLM reward-function variance dominates but bootstrap intervals are wide. The method is bounded to sparse structured tasks with reliable interfaces under PPO; fields like event_text may help, hurt, or be neutral.